Actually, I'd say worst case is that Morton is the new Fledman/Fister... and they aren't able to add anybody else (in addition to LMJ never coming back healthy, Keuchel being done, McHugh continuing to regress, and Musgrove/Paulino/Martes never making it... yeah, that would be truly a worst case scenario).
Well, he's doesn't exactly have much do with those other things. So the best case is he misses the entire season with injury, but Keuchel rebounds,McCullers pitches a full year, Musgrove proves to be a stud, McHugh flashes back to 2014, and Martes/Paulino join in early and dominate.
Ok. Worst case is the new President starts a nuclear war with Russia, with the only survivors living in their backyard bomb shelters. Better?
He has had a SIERA (proven to be best predictor of future ERA) under 4 in each of his past 4 seasons. I'm not really excited by the signing, but I'm optimistic he'll be solid. I'm surprised we went this route, I thought our rotation was deep enough already but could use another top-flight ace.
Even better case? They have a 5-way tie for the Cy Young Award this year amongst all the current Astros starters!
When I saw the truncated thread title on the Forums page, I was hoping it said "Astros sign Charlie Pallillo for pbp". This is one of those under-the-radar type moves that is low risk/high reward. Could be another McHugh that could put up good numbers in the right situation. Not so much money that it prevents anything else from being done, either.
I like it as a back of the rotation move. I'm surprised he cost as much as he did...might have expected that price for 1 year. I must be severely underestimating this market, even given some of the early deals that were expensive. I'd certainly take this over Hellickson for 1/17.2 though! Bartolo for 1/12 probably on par with this.
Since Morton debuted in the big leagues in 2008, no pitcher (minimum 350 innings pitched) has been worse against left-handed hitters. ...against lefties, he’s basically throwing batting practice. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/astros-sign-charlie-morton-al-west-lefties-rejoice/ OUCH!
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/allow-me-to-sell-you-on-charlie-morton/ The videos would not copy below, so go to the link if you want to watch them. Spoiler
I have read where several analytic heavy writers and former MLB front office people said they expected Morton to be in high demand and surprise people with the amount of money he would end up getting. I actually prefer two years because the reports on him have been very positive and there is a slight chance he pitches like a #1/2 if everything clicks for him. I also think his repertoire would transition well to the pen if he isn't needed in the rotation. His sinker has very high end potential and could be devastating if his control has improved even a little amount. Not someone I would have immediately targeted but signing him gives us even more flexibility to trade other members of the rotation and to possibly help in the pen. The money isn't the minimum but shouldn't knock us out of the running for a premier bat if we go that route.
You're right on all accounts. My initial thought was, if you're a large market team, these kinds of moves make a ton of sense. Take low-medium risk on medium-high upside. Somewhat akin to spending big on the big IFAs. But if you're a smaller market team (not the Yanks, Sox, Cubs, etc.), I expect you can only make ~1 of these types of moves every few years. If it pans out, you might have a little more leverage to do it again. But if it doesn't (or the team doesn't), you've blown your shot. Let's see what happens. I'm happy about it in the short term.
Interesting since he was pulled with a LHB due up. Though he actually dominated lefties this year to the tune of a .172/.263/.298 line.
