People love supporting false narratives. I'm in awe that Crane and Luhnow have been able to stay this disciplined and patient with their plan and it really has been executed perfectly. Now it's time to be aggressive.
I don't want to live in a world where people don't want baseball's best hitter over the past decade. How in the world does adding Cabrera to this team not help our chance to win a WS in the next 5 years? Isn't that the goal?
He will almost inarguably be a massive help this year, and next. But he's already gonna be 34 on opening day. Given his frame, and lifestyle choices in the past, there seems to be a high lead anchor potential from 2019 to 2023. When the bills come due for Altuve, Keuchel,Springer, Correa, having 30 million a year locked up in guy that will could be of minimal help would be extremely painful. When teams sign these massive contracts, they are paying a back end premium for all of the great front end years. We may not get many of the great front end years, and still have the premium for all the back end years. Now there's of course no guarantee he falls off. He is an almost preternaturally talented all around hitter who may age very well, and we do have the DH to keep him safe. But it is undeniably a big risk.
Mlbtraderumors posted recently that PIT-WAS was close to a McCutchen trade earlier last summer. Purely speculating, and it wouldn't be cheap, but he may be a nice buy-low candidate after a poor 2016 campaign. Might not fit exactly what were looking for, but the idea could be intriguing for both sides.
Just so we're clear... if Crane doesn't trade for Cabrera, it's because he's cheap and not because, "that's a lot of money for an overweight slugger that might regress as fast as Prince Fielder." Crane is cheap and not as smart as his team's fans. Got it.
Money can be a bargaining chip. Every dollar the Astros agree to absorb lessens the amount of talent they have to give up.
Word on the street is that Crane is Drayton McLane's illegitimate son ... and thus was born to be cheap.
If these projections are anywhere near accurate for the top 3 FA Catchers on the market ... Castro is clearly the worst value among the 3 #1 - Wieters Getting an offensive upgrade for a switch-hitter with similar defensive skills for 25% discount versus keeping Castro is a no-brainer lock However, I have serious doubts that Boras will let any client take such a massive pay cut coming off an AllStar season As I mentioned before, I'm thinking more like 3yrs $40M to get Wieters ... and I'd still do that over paying Castro anything more than $7-8M per season for any length of contract #2 - Ramos A very recent, very serious knee injury would make me hesitant to guarantee any Catcher $60M over 4 yrs But he is a massive OFF upgrade from Castro, and with Gattis back, we could weather the first half of next season without a need to rush Ramos If he comes back as a top 3-5 hitter at the position again ... this deal becomes the best bargain of the offseason (as they mention) Risk is worth the upside if other option is Castro
Luhnow said he touched base with almost every team and he, assistant GM Mike Elias and director of baseball operations Brandon Taubman met formally with probably 12. They also met with about 12 agents, according to the GM. "I feel good," Luhnow said. "We've got a long list - it's two pages long - of leads, if you will, that we need to chase down, conversations we need to have. "I think we're going to start making some offers right away, both with teams as well as with agents and players. Whether or not it leads to anything next week, I don't know. But I would like to have one or two things done before the winter meetings if possible. "We've always had more of an attitude of wait and see how the market develops and figure out where we can get some value and where we can get players that are complementary," he said. "But now we need to be more aggressive. We need to try and get out in front of some things and secure some players to help us win." http://www.chron.com/sports/astros/...uhnow-optimistic-on-making-moves-10606369.php
Step 3 was supposed to be very simple initially ... Use our Yuli connect to finally close Aroldis Chapman This would have completed our bullpen and made the team a real contender in 2017 But if these projections are anywhere near reality, there is no way I would ever pay any reliever a contract approaching $100M If anybody might be worth that, it would be Aroldis, but I would let another team find out Same for Jansen ... WAY too expensive 2 major bullpen issues need to addressed this offseason: 1 - Is Giles the closer in 2017? 2 - Where can we find another lefty as insurance against a repeat of 2016 Tony Sipp? Chapman would have neatly addresses both with perhaps the best reliever in all of MLB That's not happening if it costs anywhere near $100M Sooooo ... I'm moving on to other avenues for improving the bullpen I see no clear options that jump out as obvious moves It seems Luhnow has 3 general ways to resolve our 2 bullpen problems for 2017: A - Make Giles the Closer & sign secondary LOOGY option (like Travis Wood or Boone Logan) as Sipp insurance B - Explore market options in trade for dominant Lefty Closer option to compete with Giles C - Sign Righty lower-tier FA Closer (Greg Holland or Melancon) & promote 2nd lefty from the minors to supplement Sipp Will need some time to get this sorted out I'd love to find a deal like Colorado made for a guy like Jake McGee last year Any ideas on a lefty reliever of that caliber available this offseason?
How do you see our Arbitration cases shaking out? By my count, we have 5 key players due for ARB raises in 2017: Keuchel, Springer, McHugh, Marwin & Will Harris I'll take a stab at projecting 2017 ARB salaries for all 5 RF Springer Arb1 - $5.2M UT Marwin (S) Arb3 - $3.8M S3 Keuchel (L) Arb2 - $11.5M S4 McHugh Arb1 - $6.5M R7 Harris Arb1 - $3M Sound reasonable? Anybody I missed?
Those aren't projections for what the players will get, but rather a statistical estimate of what they are worth. Basically, Zips estimates Wieters to be the worst value. Mostly because he'll get paid by a 4 time all-star switch hitting catcher, even though he hasn't really been an all-star caliber player since 2012.
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/spo...itching-is-too-high-Astros-might-10606962.php "The reality is we have enough guys to fill out a rotation. Can we improve the quality overall? Yes. I would like to do that," Luhnow said this week at MLB's annual GM meetings, which concluded early Thursday. "But it's going to depend what the opportunity cost of doing that is and what the alternatives are." Not keen on parting with Bregman and prospects in a trade for a starter, the Astros might deem beefing up their offense as their best alternative. This could mean investing legitimate money or prospects to obtain upgrades in the outfield and at catcher or in the outfield and at first base. Although the Astros seem unlikely to be players for Yoenis Cespedes, both Carlos Beltran and Josh Reddick are realistic options for the outfield. A reunion with the 39-year-old Beltran is an especially intriguing idea given he switch-hits, could split time between a corner outfield spot and designated hitter, and would provide veteran presence to a team that lacks it. At first base, the top option is free agent Edwin Encarnacion, whom the Astros surely like but probably won't be willing to pay the $100 million or more it should take to sign the 33-year-old slugger. Mike Napoli, another free agent, would come cheaper on a shorter-term deal and also qualify as a veteran presence. A reunion with Luis Valbuena to play first base is not out of the question. Brian McCann of the New York Yankees may be the most ideal catching option available to the Astros, but nothing sounded imminent on the trade front as of Thursday afternoon. McCann has a full-no trade clause, is owed $17 million in each of the next two seasons, and would require prospects for the Astros to land him. Matt Wieters and Wilson Ramos are the best free-agent catching options, but there has been little to suggest to this point the Astros expect to be players for either. If they're unable to land McCann, perhaps another trade candidate emerges.
Luhnow expects 30 mil in arbitration plus the 30 mil in guaranteed contracts, Astros will increase payroll via free agency or trade by 40 million too Crane's 100 million nod. Luhnow sounds confident and happy after leaving the GM meetings, I hope Beltran is the first upgrade
Astros not yet decided on long term roles for Chris Devenski, Michael Feliz SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. --- The Astros have not yet determined whether righthanders Chris Devenski and Michael Feliz fit best in their long term plans as starters or as relievers. "That's a debate that we have almost every day," general manager Jeff Luhnow said this week at MLB's GM Meetings, "and it's different for the two players." Devenski, who turns 26 on Sunday, was one of the most valuable relievers in the American League last season. The rookie who went unpicked in last December's Rule 5 draft had a 1.61 ERA in 83 2/3 innings of relief, often picking up the slack in the middle innings after a short outing by a starter. Feliz, 23, recorded a 4.43 ERA in 65 innings. He was dominant at times, recording 13.2 strikeouts per nine innings, but appeared to tire later in the season, his first full year in the majors. Luhnow expected both pitchers would come into spring training prepared to start before either remaining in the role or transitioning back to relief. "Devenski was such an important part of our bullpen that it's hard to think about him not in that role," Luhnow said. "But at the same time, starting pitching's hard to find and I think he can do it. And the same thing for Feliz. So, we're going to have to see how the offseason goes before we make a determination on those two guys." ________ Although not on the Astros' 40-man roster, outfield prospect Ramon Laureano may garner some reps in major league spring training in 2017. A byproduct of the Astros promoting so many of their prospects to the majors last season is they don't have any major decisions to make before this December's Rule 5 draft. If not added to the 40-man roster by Nov. 18, outfielder Jon Kemmer and righthanders Mike Hauschild and Jordan Jankowski are the most notable players who would be exposed to Rule 5.
$30M? On the nose? The 5 projected salaries I listed added add up to exactly $30M Weird I forgot about Fiers, though I don't expect him to return in 2017 unless we don't add a single starter via trade or FA So that's 6 ARB-eligible What's the contract situation with Aoki? He did not get the 480 PAs in 2016 needed to vest his $6M mutual option for 2017 Does that mean he goes into 2017 as ARB3 now? How does waivers claim affect that? I only count 5 current Stros from final roster last season with MLB vet contracts making a total of $36.5M in 2017: Yuli 14.4 Gregorson 6.25 Sipp 6 Gattis 5.2 Altuve 4.7 Then our 4 current FAs: Castro Rasmus Valbuena Fister Meaning the rest of our current roster are all pre-ARB Are those numbers right?
