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Trump stock market rally continues; Dow hits new high

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Nov 10, 2016.

  1. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    The media is apparently surprised by the stock market rally in the aftermath of Trump's victory in the election on Tuesday, as they are apparently spectacularly ignorant people. Experts - hah!

    We saw the same thing in the lead-up to the Brexit referendum in the UK. The establishment pushed a scare agenda and predicted financial doom and devastation of the Leave side won. In the aftermath of the vote to leave, there was an immediate sharp dip in the market, as all the establishment experts sold off their positions that favored the Remain policy, and then the FTSE 100 set new highs within about a week after the vote.

    No such delay here. The day after Trump's victory, the DOW came close to a new all-time high, and this morning it has hit a new intra-day all-time high. There was an overnight dip on Tuesday, as the "experts" bailed on their positions and adjusted their portfolios, but that did not even last a full 24 hours.

    This is no surprise. Think about it. Donald Trump is a businessman, first and foremost. If he should be expected to achieve anything as president, shouldn't that be to pass policies that are friendly to business (and jobs)? And it is not just Trump, as the Republicans have always been a more pro-growth, pro-business party. Unnecessary and counterproductive regulations will be reduced, tax reform, especially corporate tax reform, is almost certainly going to be an early, high priority item.

    Will it last? No, as there are too many problems in the world and the stock market goes up and down in response to them when they are impactful enough. The money printing policies of our Federal Reserve have apparently run their course and the Fed does not know how to extricate itself from this mess without tanking the stock market. The EU is probably the most likely source off a new global financial downturn, as they have enormous problems, even worse than our own. The Chinese are also having a certain level of difficulties. Etc.

    So smoke if you got'em fellas. Enjoy the Trump rally while it lasts, because the ride down will certainly follow next. It always does.
     
    Dei and Dark Rhino like this.
  2. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member

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    Where were you when it was tanking?

    Long term prospects are down - US growth forecasts are being cut. The market is reacting to tax cuts and deregulation, but forecasts for long term growth are negative.
     
  3. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    Trump is a guy who has bankrupted many business. America voted a racist misogynist as president. Why can't we have Romney. Nasdaq is down 1.6%.
     
  4. DonnyMost

    DonnyMost Member

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    I'm waiting to see how the stock market reacts to:

    1) An extremely expensive border wall that does virtually nothing to increase security
    2) Cost of living skyrocketing due to protectionist and insular trade policies
    3) Wages flatlining and backsliding as supply side policies kick into high gear
    4) More wars and nuclear sabre rattling
    5) The national debt exploding due to irresponsible tax cuts and an explosion in military spending
     
  5. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member

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    I wish we had Romney.
     
  6. adoo

    adoo Member

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    actually, most hedged their position

    the two best economic eras in recent history include the Reagan and Bill Clinton years.
    Neither of them were businessman;
    Reagan was an actor, union leader and radio commentator; w Bill Clinton a career politician​

    the two worst economic eras in recent history include the Jimmy Carter and GW Bush years
    both had been businessmen​
     
    #6 adoo, Nov 10, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2016
    RedRedemption and justtxyank like this.
  7. FranchiseBlade

    Supporting Member

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    He is a businessman with a track record of failure. He's been unable to secure loans, defaulted on loans that he did secure, has lied about having an MBA for Wharton, had his businesses file for bankruptcy, defrauded Americans, has claimed credit for other people's businesses that he sold his name to, etc.
     
    justtxyank likes this.
  8. JeffB

    JeffB Member

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    That market should rally, for now. Those with money are gonna have free reign under the known plans of the RNC. Especially, since early signs are that Trump is gonna let the RNC enact their Ayn Randian Wonderland. It is the long-term that should concern us all, especially once we actually know what Trump's economic agenda will be. We have to wait since he never actually articulated an economic plan....
     
  9. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    The Market initially were fearful of a crazy man. Then Trump actually acted presidential in that victory speech. That's my theory.

    And market rally and highs are great. But, there is this huge disconnect between wall street and main street - or at least that's what anti-establishment folks believe. So, in that spirit, main street is waiting.
     
  10. bigtexxx

    bigtexxx Member

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    liberals - the party of so much fail

    always wrong
     
  11. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
    Supporting Member

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    Obama called the bottom of the market
     
  12. dmoneybangbang

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    I love it. Trump's economic plan is very Keynesian which is ironic since the GOP has fought that type of economics for 8 years under Obama.

    Trump plans include a lot of Keynesian spending that will add trillions to the debt in return for infrastructure spending and tax cuts. A great article on what that markets are showing:

    https://marketmonetarist.com/2016/11/09/make-america-keynesian-again/

    Essentially, the things you'd expect to be up based on a perceived large public spending is up: commodities, treasury bonds, and companies involved in construction and related services.

    If Trump's economic plans goes through it only corroborates my view how the GOP congress essentially sabotaged American economic growth under Obama.
     
  13. Deji McGever

    Deji McGever יליד טקסני

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    I didn't realize the US had a Liberal party.
     
  14. SamFisher

    SamFisher Member

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    Great news, makes my put options cheaper.
     
  15. Ubiquitin

    Ubiquitin Member
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    The economy is good right now. Low unemployment and rising real incomes. It's the potential fall out from putting up tariffs, excessive spending while 'cutting taxes', and the potential for trade wars that are going to be the issue in the next several years. As corporate earnings go, so do stocks.
    But I am of the mind that there will be a recession in the next few years regardless of who became president. Bull markets do not last forever. It just happens to be Trump who will have a recession, and GOP will blame it on Obama.
    Thanks Obama.
     
  16. dmoneybangbang

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    That's the ironic part, the economy is doing a lot better. Employment is up and wages have actually increased signaling a demand for more skilled workers. The problem is Trump's appeal is in state's where the people haven't adopted to this new economy and have been left behind. The bolded is what concerns me.
     
  17. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Member

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    I think investors realized that Trump wasn't going to start trade wars or do any of the nutty crazy things and that's why the market rallied so much. It's more out of relief than anything else. His policies will boost certain sectors like Pharma so that also helps.

    It also means your premiums will likely go up in a few years
     
    Hustle Town likes this.
  18. Exiled

    Exiled Member

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    It's the 5th Elliot wave , volume still weak
     
  19. Hustle Town

    Hustle Town Member

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    You shouldn't wait too long. Your list shows you don't understand much about markets.
     
  20. dmoneybangbang

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    Congress is more powerful on paper than the president as they control the budget. Will the actual GOP allow Trump to be Keynesian public spender? Will they allow him to back track on "free trade"? Good questions as Congress can obstruct Trump.
     

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