[Official] Astros Off-Season Thread

http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/sto...edes-kenley-other-top-free-agents-truly-worth

Below we have the players with the top 25 free-agent valuations, as projected by the ZiPS projection system. This is not necessarily what each player will get paid or what he should expect to get paid, though there's obvious correlation. Rather, these are estimated valuations of what a player's contribution in wins is worth. In other words, this is how much ZiPS says the player is worth. Keep in mind that not every team is concerned with being the most efficient; teams in win-now mode with an obvious hole might rightly overpay to enhance their current core as much as they can.

1. Justin Turner, 3B | ZiPS' projected value: Five years, $107.7 million (A.A.V.: $21.54M)
2. Yoenis Cespedes, OF | ZiPS' projected value: Five years, $100.1 million (A.A.V.: $20.02M)
3. Ian Desmond, OF | ZiPS' projected value: Five years, $98.6 million (A.A.V.: $19.72M)
4. Aroldis Chapman, RP | ZiPS' projected value: Five years, $92.2 million (A.A.V.: $18.44M)
5. Kenley Jansen, RP | ZiPS' projected value: Four years, $73.5 million (A.A.V.: $18.38M)
6. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH | ZiPS' projected value: Four years, $71.4 million (A.A.V.: $17.85M)

If someone gives Encarnacion five years and $125 million, they're going to have a tough time gleaning value close to that. Like a lot of sluggers in the year of the home run, the increase in offense masked a decline relative to the league. A 133 OPS+ isn't something to scoff at, but it's his lowest number since he busted out in a big way in 2012. Encarnacion is a fearsome hitter, but he'll be 34 in January and isn't someone who brings a lot of defensive value.
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7. Dexter Fowler, OF | ZiPS' projected value: Four years, $64.8 million (A.A.V.: $16.2M)
8. Neil Walker, 2B | ZiPS' projected value: Four years, $64.4 million (A.A.V.: $16.1M)
9. Jose Bautista, OF | ZiPS' projected value: Three years, $47.3 million (A.A.V.: $15.77M)
10. Carlos Gomez, OF | ZiPS' projected value: Three years, $47.0 million (A.A.V.: $15.67M)

Gomez was a wreck for two-thirds of 2016 but showed signs of a pulse with the Rangers, as he put up a couple months that almost salvaged what would have been a mess of a year. ZiPS still projects a comeback to something closer to his 2015 levels, which, while disappointing compared to his 2013-2014 peak, left him as a league-average center fielder. That has value.
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11. Wilson Ramos, C | ZiPS' projected value: Four years, $58.8 million (A.A.V.: $14.7M)

ZiPS is aware of Ramos' ACL tear, which is why he doesn't rank higher. Ramos comes with a risk, but he's still the best catcher out there. If he hits his upside, he'll be one of the best bargains available. I would've given him a qualifying offer if I ran the Nationals; even if he can't play catcher in 2017, Washington first basemen -- mostly Ryan Zimmerman -- were embarrassingly awful in 2016, so Ramos could play there.
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12. Mark Melancon, RP | ZiPS' projected value: Two years, $27.9 million (A.A.V.: $13.95M)
13. Rich Hill, SP | ZiPS' projected value: Three years, $38.8 million (A.A.V.: $12.93M)
14. Luis Valbuena, 3B/1B | ZiPS' projected value: Two years, $25.8 million (A.A.V.: $12.9M)

A below-average third baseman defensively, Valbuena is likely to contribute enough offensively to be an OK option at either third or first base/DH, at least as a stopgap.
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15. Josh Reddick, OF | ZiPS' projected value: Two years, $25.5 million (A.A.V.: $12.75M)

Reddick was never a top-tier right fielder, but he provided just enough offense at his peak to go with his Gold Glove-caliber defense and make him a solid three- to four-win player for a few years. After a downtick in both offense and defense in 2016 (hardly unusual for a good but not great hitter after his peak), he's more in the stopgap territory.
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16. Jason Castro, C | ZiPS' projected value: Two years, $25.4 million (A.A.V.: $12.7M)

If he had been a free agent following the 2013 season, easily his best season professionally, Castro would have made double that figure per year. The 130 OPS+ stands out as an outlier at this point, and he has settled into being an OK catcher, one ZiPS likes a bit better than his 2016 performance. But considering he'll turn 30 in 2017, the chances for stardom have evaporated.
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17. Kendrys Morales, DH | ZiPS' projected value: Two years, $22.9 million (A.A.V.: $11.45M)
18. Jeremy Hellickson, SP | ZiPS' projected value: Two years, $22.7 million (A.A.V.: $11.35M)
19. Ivan Nova, SP | ZiPS' projected value: Two years, $22.1 million (A.A.V.: $11.05M)
20. Mark Trumbo, OF/1B | ZiPS' projected value: Two years, $21.0 million (A.A.V.: $10.5M)
21. Steve Pearce, 1B/2B/OF | ZiPS' projected value: Two years, $20.6 million (A.A.V.: $10.3M)
22. Michael Saunders, OF | ZiPS' projected value: Two years, $20.3 million (A.A.V.: $10.15M)
23. Mike Napoli, 1B | ZiPS' projected value: One year, $9.8 million
24. Bartolo Colon, SP | ZiPS' projected value: One year, $9.6 million
25. Matt Wieters, C | ZiPS' projected value: Two years, $18.9 million (A.A.V.: $9.45M)​

 

Jay might be one of those after-thought shrugs of a move that pays off handsomely; very Ian Desmond-like. Struggled in '15 (there may be a reason; don't know) - but bounced back last year (granted, on limited PAs - was he hurt in '15?). Carries a .352 career ob%. Only issue - he's a bit Nori Aoki-redundant - lefty with no power who can get on base.

 

Jon Jay never even occurred to me until this mention, but now I love the idea of adding him.

He is a lefty, but his OBP and BA aren't impaired at all against LHP. His power falls off even more, but he hits and gets on base at the same clip, which makes him an everyday player. Him and Aoki are extremely similar, but Jay is a little younger and can handle CF, which provides a little more versatility. Plus adding both provides a bit of safeguard against injury or down year.

I think power is often overrated. You certainly need it in your lineup, but you don't need it from everybody. Even if we don't get power out of our LF, we're still gonna have plenty. If you told me our CF and LF were gonna provide a .290/.350 line I would take it right now without even needing to know the SLG%. An opening day outfield of Aoki/Jay/Springer wouldn't bother me.

Now it wouldn't be popular, and people would scream cheap. But 2 high contact, high OBP guys playing a lot of the innings in the OF could be the perfect addition this offseason, because I don't think there are any great options except Encarnacion, and his age would terrify me when discussing a huge 5 year deal. Sign the best catcher you can, and push your chips in on an Ace.

 

Yeah, I agree - I wish they could potentially platoon; that'd be ideal.

But... Jay has played 90 and 79 games the past two years; Nori: 118 and 93. I'd be wary of them being counted on to play everyday (unless there's a legitimate reason - injury - for their lesser games played).

 

Sound the alarms.

 

I wouldn't either, and I don't think the Astros will. If we knew the internal opinion on Bregman/Gurriel in LF it would be a little more clear.

 

Jon Morosi pulling **** out of his ***. "Astros ready to increase payroll" ≠ "Astros pursuing Miguel Cabrera!" Let me be the first to call bullshit.

The best pairing for Cabrera, if there is one, could be Houston. Based in the fourth-largest city in the U.S., the Astros have signaled that they are prepared to increase their payroll and bring it more in line with their market size. Houston needs a big bat, possesses a strong farm system and has a compelling personal sales pitch: Jose Altuve -- Cabrera's friend and fellow native of Maracay, Venezuela -- would play alongside him on the Astros' infield.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/208404882/tigers-open-to-roster-overhaul-in-2017/
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Cabrera:
2017: $28M (Age 34)
2018: $30M (35)
2019: $30M (36)
2020: $30M (37)
2021: $30M (38)
2022: $32M (39)
2023: $32M (40)
2024: $30M club option ($8M buyout) (41)
2025: $30M club option (42)

• 2024-25 options guaranteed with top 10 finish in previous year’s MVP vote
• full no-trade protection

 

I mean Miggy would be a huge addition to our lineup, but that contract is giving me Carlos Lee nightmares.

 

Sorry about that, Clutch.

 

I'd add miggy and his K only if it doesn't prohibit our ability to keep correa, Jose, Bergman, George, lmj, and kuechel long term.

His contract should ease the hit on our farm, I'm curious what type of deal would get it done. In the end, 7 years of miggy might make more sense than 5 of encarnacion, or a similar bat, all factors included.

But, watching how pujols has aged makes me think twice about adding miggy at this stage. I thought pujols would've aged well, and think the same about miggy currently.

 

You must be really mad at us last year and the year before that and the years before that ... We are quite the ill behaved children that you never wanted

 

Love your sentiment, but I came to this forum to avoid reading that name today.

 

Of course adding $220,000,000 over the next seven seasons is going to limit the Astros ability to keep their core together.

Well it all comes down to how Miguel ages. He has a history of fast living and alcoholism in the past. I do not know if he has actually put that behind him.

I wouldn't make a direct comparison to Pujols, as there are MANY in the game that believe that Albert had some "help".

 

We also have no contractual liabilities beyond 2017. So, yes, 220MM over 7 years is clearly a lot. But I'm not so sure that contract--in and of itself--keeps us from keeping all of our core.

 

Knowing how cheap Crane is, I'd say the odds of trading for Miggy are close to 1%. And I hope they don't trade for him, that's a lot of money for an overweight slugger that might regress as fast as Prince Fielder.

 

Didn't that narrative die with the Yuli signing? Not to mention blowing past the international spending pool.