If they have command and are only vert good, they likely will only be very good throughout their careers. I dont think that bringing up Jordan Lyles (For instance) hurt him at all. Lyles is simply a 5th starter/bullpen type guy. Same with Cosart. Iwill admit a pitchers rookie year is an adjustment period. So the earlier you start the process the better. IMHO
Stassi doesn't make the club out of spring training, he'll have to clear waivers before returning to AAA. Not sure of the rest
http://www.chron.com/sports/astros/...ll-gear-this-week-with-annual-GM-10597068.php Three free agent outfielders to keep an eye on: Dexter Fowler Fowler re-enters the free agent market fresh off leading off an epic World Series Game 7 with a home run. The switch-hitting center fielder is due for a big pay day a year after re-signing early last spring training with the Chicago Cubs. Fowler on paper would be a great fit for the Astros, who face uncertainty in center field and lack both a natural leadoff man and left-handed presence in their lineup. It's unknown how Fowler, 31 in March, would feel about returning to the team that traded him just two offseasons ago. He should have his share of suitors. Like last offseason, Fowler is expected to again because of the qualifying offer have draft pick compensation attached to his price tag, which is another consideration for teams. (The Astros are slated to pick 16th in June's draft.) Josh Reddick A left-handed bat and a former Gold Glove Award winner, Reddick appears a close-to-ideal fit for the Astros, who are believed to indeed have interest in the former Red Sox, Athletics and Dodgers outfielder. Reddick batted .281 with a .749 OPS in 115 games last season despite struggling after the trade deadline deal that sent him and lefthander Rich Hill from Oakland to Los Angeles. He slashed a brutal .155/.212/.155 against lefthanders, much worse than his career percentages of .218/.280/.360. The 12.8 percent walk rate Reddick posted last year was better than all Astros hitters not named Luis Valbuena, who is also a free agent. Reddick, who will play next season at age 30, could play right field and allow the Astros to shift George Springer to center. Michael Saunders Michael Saunders would also qualify as the left-handed bat the Astros need but his second-half drop off to an All-Star campaign in 2016 may present some cause for concern. He would also add more strikeouts to a lineup that had the second-most in the American League last season. Ultimately, however, Saunders would still mark an upgrade in left field over the departing Colby Rasmus. Saunders batted .253 with a career-high 24 home runs and an .815 OPS last season for the Toronto Blue Jays.
I'd love to get Fowler back. Think he's the best fit of those 2. Switch hitter who improved his ability to hit as a lefty, could easily put up similar numbers as last year when you consider who is batting behind him. He's probably gonna get paid though. Pass on Saunders. He's basically the same type of player we have except he's a lefty. Reddick seems solid too despite underwhelming in LA.
I'm wary of Fowler, who is a QO guy coming off of a career year and getting a bump from the WS. I think he'd be a great fit at $30-40M, but it's possible he could get $80M+. I would rather see Houston take that and deepen their roster; for $80M they could probably sign Josh Reddick, Jason Castro, Pedro Alvarez, and JP Howell.
I'd rather not lose the first rd pick the Astros would give up signing Fowler. Reddick probably makes more sense.
While the price tag may ultimately be too rich ($ + draft pick), Dexter Fowler's track record is spot-on, in terms of what this team needs. Sure, he's unlikely to flirt with a .400 OB% again - but I'd take his career average (.364 if we remove 2016) in a heartbeat at the top of this line-up. Not to mention, this team could use some seasoned veterans who have played well on good teams. The Astros' greatest hurdle in 2017 is figuring out the Texas Rangers; guys like Fowler could be invaluable in our efforts to crack that code.
Hot-stove survey 1. Which free-agent closer -- Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman or Mark Melancon -- will provide the best value for the contract he's likely to command? Responses: Jansen 19; Melancon 11; Chapman 6; no response 2.2. Do you think the Cleveland Indians will trade Andrew Miller this offseason? If yes, where will he wind up? Responses: Yes, 2; No, 35. One respondent said the Indians will hang on to Miller and trade him in July. Of the "yes'' voters, one picked the Los Angeles Dodgers as the best landing spot for Miller, while another speculated that the New York Mets might be in play because of Jeurys Familia's arrest on a domestic violence charge. The Washington Nationals and San Francisco Giants also were mentioned as possible landing spots. 3. Which free-agent slugger do you like best: Edwin Encarnacion, Yoenis Cespedes, Mark Trumbo or Jose Bautista? Responses: Encarnacion 17½; Cespedes 17; Trumbo 1½; Bautista 1. One no response. 4. What's the most likely scenario: (1) Ryan Braun gets traded; (2) Yasiel Puig gets traded; or (3) They get traded for each other? Responses: Braun gets traded, 13; they're traded for each other, 9; Puig gets traded, 9. Five respondents think Braun and Puig are traded, but not for each other. Two survey participants declined to answer. 5. Which free agent this winter do you think will land a contract that's far above and beyond what people expect (i.e., the "what were they thinking'' award)? Responses: Ivan Nova 8; Rich Hill and Jeremy Hellickson, 6 each; Ian Desmond 5; Andrew Cashner 4; Edwin Encarnacion 3; Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick, Michael Saunders, Jose Bautista and Mark Trumbo, 2 each; Aroldis Chapman, Justin Turner, Mike Napoli, Matt Wieters, Derek Holland, Joe Blanton and Jason Castro, 1 each. 6. Will Chris Sale be traded this offseason? If your answer is yes, what do you think is his most likely destination? Responses: No, 18: Yes, 18; No response, 2. Most likely destination: Red Sox 5; Dodgers 4; Yankees, Nationals and Rangers, 2 each; Cubs, Braves and Astros, 1 each.
He averaged 96 when he was a dominant closer. That tells me be pessimistic about when he will see the field.
Now that the ball is rolling with moves for Aoki, Neshek and Gattis ... MY ASTROS 2017 OFFSEASON PLAN STEP 1 Go hard & fast for ACE in trade TOP Target - SP Chris Sale (CHI) Secondary Options: Chris Archer, Sonny Gray A proven #1 starter remains the Astros' biggest need. Zero FA options fit this mold, making a trade our only hope. Luhnow's history (see: Giles over Kimbrel/Chapman) suggests a younger, cheaper target still under team control (like Archer and Gray) are more likely options. For me, Sale is the obvious best fit for this team for several reasons: - His contentious relationship with Sox management reached ridiculous levels in 2016, making his relocation feel inevitable this offseason - Sox have less leverage as a seller than normal when looking to deal such a precious asset, and he does not have a no-trade list to my knowledge - Proven track record going back 5+ seasons of elite, consistent performance, yet still in his prime at 27 - Perhaps the best value contract in the majors of any ace over the next 3 seasons 2017 - $12M 2018 - $12.5M (CO w $1M buyout) 2019 - $15M (CO w $1M buyout) Having already traded Feldman (5.25), we would simply need to let Fister (7) walk We could then add Sale without adding a dime to the payroll While no deal could be made at this past deadline, Sale is still in Chicago I see no reason our farm system cannot make an offer to compete with anybody In coming up with a reasonable Sale Trade Package, I felt the Rangers' deal for Cole Hamels 18 months ago was the best recent comparable blueprint Both were proven Lefty #1 starters, locked up long-term, and still in their primes Sale's younger age and cheaper contract are offset by his questionable personal issues that make him more of a gamble in the locker room Essentially, the formula Texas used to land Hamels was 3 Top-50 prospects plus another 2 AAAA throw-ins for a total of 5 We could easily offer a comparable package for Sale without needing to include Springer, Bregman or McCullers (our 3 most valuable untouchables) MLB.com mid-2015 top100 ranks of Rangers traded in deal for Hamels: 51 - RHP Jake Thompson 55 - OF Nick Williams 59 - C Jorge Alfaro XX - RHP Jerad Eickhoff XX - RHP Alec Asher BA mid-2016 top100 ranks of Astros proposed in deal for Sale: 27 - RHP Francis Martes 29 - RHP Joe Musgrove 47 - RHP Felipe Paulino 94 - OF Derek Fisher XX - 3B Colin Moran Any organization is going to be hurt by dealing away it's 3 best pitching prospects all at once Especially when all 3 were just rated among the 30-50 best prospects in all of MiB Martes and Paulino may arrive in 2017, but neither is a lights-out superstar prospect projected as anything approaching the #1 stopper Sale is now Musgrove hurts the most (short and long term), but again, in my wildest dreams I can't see him becoming our Ace at any point Fisher was almost sent to PHI in the Giles deal before getting swapped for Appel Moran has no future here now that Bregman and Yuli are entrenched I'm sure the Sox will insist on Bregman, but I think that's a pipe-dream unless they are also being offered Seager/Turner/Crawford type mega-prospects by other suitors Reed might be discussed, but would be pointless unless they can also find a taker for Abreu's contract Lance's injury history probably makes the trio or younger RHPs above more appealing to CHI And Springer does nothing for a rebuilding team like CHI as a soon-to-be Super 2 approaching 30 looking for big $ sooner than later If Luhnow can make this deal without touching the 'core' players already on the roster, I hope he jumps on it immediately and aggressively to fill the biggest hole on the entire team with a perfect fit
No qualifying offer: OF Rajai Davis 1B/DH Kendrys Morales 1B/DH Mike Napoli C Wilson Ramos OF Michael Saunders SP Edinson Volquez C Matt Wieters QO: OF Jose Bautista OF Yoenis Cespedes OF Ian Desmond 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion OF Dexter Fowler SP Jeremy Hellickson CP Kenley Jansen 3B Justin Turner 1B/DH Mark Trumbo 2B Neil Walker
STEP 2 Fix 2 major holes with Switch-hitting Vets that balance the lineup without breaking the bank TOP Target LF - Carlos Beltran (TEX) Secondary Options: Josh Reddick, Ian Desmond I do not expect Colby to return in LF in 2017 Yuli/Bregman have been discussed as possible options there, but I'd prefer them at DH and 3B instead Having traded Fisher for Sale, Teo and Preston remain the 2 best in-house candidates, but neither figures to bring the bat this team really needs to boost the bottom of the lineup I'd love to turn the tables on our new rivals from Arlington, who have repeatedly hurt us by acquiring trade targets that could have really helped the Astros (Hamels, Lucroy, Beltran) I don't see any scenario where both Beltran and Desmond return to the Rangers Desmond will certainly be looking to cash in on his AllStar debut in the OF with a monster FA deal, and he swings righty, so he's not the ideal bat to balance this lineup Reddick, coming off a terrible contract season, will probably look for a 1yr deal to rebuild his value He would certainly be an upgrade over Rasmus, but not enough to make him my #1 target Beltran is the guy that makes the most sense for this team The future HoFamer will turn 40 this April, yet is coming off his 9th AllStar season I prefer him for several reasons: - unlike most other FA OF options, he figures to be looking for another 1-2 year deal - has played everywhere in the OF and could team with Jake and Springer to form a fantastic defensive OF for Houston - provides consistent power (29 HRs) and contact (.281 career BA) from left side we desperately need - experience as DH allows more in-game flexibility MY OFFER: 2017 - $16M 2018 - $14M Again, this addition is completely offset by allowing Rasmus (15.8) to walk, so does not break the bank like Cespedes or Desmond might TOP Target C1 - Matt Weiters (BAL) Secondary Options: Derek Norris (trade), Jason Castro With Gattis back in the fold, it is becoming increasingly obvious the Astros are not looking to spend big $ on a major upgrade at this position They seem content to bring back the same duo in 2017, despite the fact FA Castro is likely to earn $10M+ annually on a multi-year deal as 1 of 3 starting-caliber backstops likely to hit the market (with Ramos and Wieters) Wilson Ramos would have been an amazing upgrade had injury not ruined his career year Of all the Catchers likely to change teams this off-season, Derek Norris is actually the guy I see as most appealing to Luhnow Padres need to clear a spot for blue-chipper Austin Hedges, and Norris was Castro-level bad at the plate in 2016, so the asking price in prospects shouldn't be prohibitive His regression defensively last year is also worrisome, and he may no longer be an elite DEF backstop, but IMO neither is Castro What appeals to me the most about Norris (and Luhnow) is that he is still under team control for 2 more seasons thru 2019 Getting him for 2 years at half the cost of Castro is not the amazing bargain Lucroy would have been, but still a very payroll-friendly option Unlike the other 2 guys, Norris bats RH and offers nothing to balance or improve the bottom of our lineup Just as I did last offseason, I'd prefer to sign Matt Wieters as our new starting catcher in 2017 The 4-time AllStar surprisingly accepted his QO from Baltimore last year, rather than test the market as a FA This time, he seems certain to be let go by the Orioles in order to save $ reserved for Davis, Jones and others His bat from both sides has the power that Castro does not His glove and arm are both comparable to Castro and also vastly superior to those of Gattis In short, he is the best combination of OFF & DEF available on the market With Castro expected to be making nearly the same $ going forward, I'd rather bet on Wieters bat rebounding than Jason's MY OFFER: 2017 - $16M 2018 - $14M 2019 - $12M A substantial addition to the payroll, but not crippling Having already cut Gomez (9), the release of Castro (5) and Valbuena (6.125) would actually more than offset the addition of Wieters Step 3 coming soon ...
