Keuchel is the reigning AL Cy Young, who pitched hurt throughout 2016. Saying we need a "true ace" is insulting. I'm not against adding someone else, but finding an upgrade over Keuchel is not going to be an easy chore or McCullers for that matter. I like developing pitching and adding pieces internally. Keuchel, McCullers, McHugh & Musgrove have 4 spots locked in. Devenski, Feliz, Martes & Paulino have earned the right to compete to be named 5th starter. I'd rather throw big money on the bullpen, 1B/LF.
What do you all think about bringing Dexter Fowler back? A solid 3-4 war player with a good OBP who solidifies CF. He's going to be expensive though...
I'd do that if there wasn't mutual interest in the Cubs retaining him. Morosi says Red Sox, Astros & Yankees are 3 best suitors for Encarnacion. Would be tough for him to choose between Boston & Houston's young cores. I don't think $$ is the issue, Crane says payroll could increase 50-60 mil. I think a decision on him is priority one before moving to Tier 2 guys like Fowler, etc
Dexter Fowler never had a 3 rWAR prior to this season, or fWAR prior to 2015. I think you are getting a solid 2-3 WAR type player.
Do you think this means there is no chance of any of those guys returning to the roster? I like Valbuena...
I hope Valbuena doesn't come back........ same with Castro, Fister and Rasmus. They all had their moments playing for the Astros, but the Astros can do better. Valbuena had a good streak last year, and I like his glove; but he is probably going to be expensive and I would rather the Astros save money on players like Castro, Valbuena, Rasmus and Fister and target 1-2 players that are going to make a substantive difference.
I am trying to verify Astros Daily (not Astros County as I first typed) but have not yet. I do not know if AD misread a opinion tweet as fact or what??? Previously I had guessed that Castro (because of the extremely limited FA catcher market) and Valbuena (because he has had a semi-reliable bat the last few years) would get QO if not contract extensions. In 99% of the QO cases, the QO gets rejected; Rasmus last year was the exception. These two QOs would be a WIN WIN for the Astros. They would either get a comp pick if the QO was rejected and the player signed elsewhere ... or ... they would have the player return to the team at a market value price ($17.2 million === 2 WAR production) for a single year.
The Astros were REALLY burned last year by offering the QO to Rasmus. I discussed it at the time, the Astros intended to pursue a bigger name player and Rasmus' accepting of the one year tender shocked them and also took them out of the running for a larger name free agent. I haven't heard anything officially, but I don't think that the Astros want to risk having to pay Castro or Valbuena 17 million dollars next season. The absolute worst possible scenario of having to pay Castro AND Valbuena 34 million dollars next season is nothing short of horrifying. Yes, getting the comp pick is something that the Astros would really love to get and would help the farm system greatly; but the Astros have already been burned twice with Gomez (Astros counted on a comp pick) and Rasmus (virtually useless).
You might be correct ... but ... that is pure speculation on your part. Until the Astros actually sign a "larger name free agent", I am not a believer that Luhnow will follow that strategy. Trades, yes. FA, not so much. This could be the year that I am proven wrong.
Rasmus was not as bad a value as most are saying. He was probably worth ~$10M this year and got paid $15.8M. That's not a great deal for Houston but not a tragedy. Between being hurt and not really fitting a need, there was no chance of Valbuena getting a QO. But I wouldn't have been shocked to see Castro get one. That said, I would not want them to pay $17M for 1 year of Castro when there will be quite a few options that are almost as good that will make a fraction of that. The Astros really only have 3 needs: an elite OF bat, a catcher, and an ace starting pitcher. They should have the payroll capacity and prospects to fill all 3 and go into the season as one of the top 1 or 2 favorites to win the AL.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/sto...cubs-odds-repeat-surprise-contenders-more-mlb We take a look at the preliminary ZiPS projections for the 2017 season. Obviously these projections will change tremendously as players re-sign, sign or are traded, but here's what things look like right now. HTML: 2017 AL West team projections Team W L GB PCT. DIV% PLAYOFF% WS WIN% Houston Astros 86 76 -- .531 36.9% 58.6% 6.7% Texas Rangers 85 77 1 .525 28.8% 50.5% 5.4% Seattle Mariners 83 79 3 .512 19.9% 39.3% 3.8% Oakland Athletics 80 82 6 .494 8.4% 20.2% 1.7% Los Angeles Angels 78 84 8 .481 6.0% 15.2% 1.2% The 2017 projections for the AL West don't look all that dissimilar from the 2016 standings. Houston loses Doug Fister and Colby Rasmus (for the first half at least), but the Astros also get a full season of Alex Bregman and a likely Dallas Keuchel bounce-back season. The Rangers lose Ian Desmond and a few rentals, but they get a full season of Jonathan Lucroy and Yu Darvish, and they don't appear to have any awkward Prince Fielder situations in 2017. (And no, I didn't forget Mitch Moreland is a free agent.) The good news for the Angels is that they got so little outside of Mike Trout in 2016 that they'd practically have to improve just by pure dumb luck. The bad news is that when you're projected at 78 wins with Mike Trout, you're still an awful team that just happens to have the best player in baseball. The Angels have a ton of work ahead if they're not going to waste the benefit of having Trout at his best.
I wouldn't say badly. The bullpen already has Devenski, Gregerson, Harris, and Giles as players who performed at an elite level last season. Add in Sipp, a lefty who has thrown well in the past and isn't going anywhere, along with some combination of Mike Fiers, Brad Peacock, Kevin Chapman, Jandel Gustave, Michael Feliz, and James Hoyt, and Houston has a pretty stellar bullpen as-is. Sure, adding a good lefty would improve things, but I wouldn't call it a stark move or even consider it to be a high need. (Unless you're talking about Chapman; adding him would be on a different level.)
The part about the Astros off season plans last year being severally curtailed because of the Rasmus QO isn't speculation. What the Astros will do this season? I haven't heard anything.... but I will ask.
