Lineup: CF Fowler 3B Bregman 2B Altuve SS Correa RF Springer DH Holliday/Beltran C. Gattis 1B Valbuena LF Gurriel Best lineup top to bottom in baseball. Even if Valbuena isn't retained. Bench: Stassi or Heineman Marisnick (stud defensive replacement) Gonzalez (swiss Army knife) One of Kemp/Hernandez/Reed/Tucker/White. Rotation: McCullers Keuchel McHugh Musgrove Fiers (but eventually Martes or Paulino) Bullpen: Giles Gregerson Harris Devenski Sipp (bleh) Gustave Feliz
So, you don't address the biggest overall problem the team faced last season? You can't just hope Keuchel becomes 2015 Keuchel, McCullers is healthy for 200 innings and a combination of Musgrove, Martes, Paulino are consistent major league pitchers.
What pitchers are our there to get? Pickings are so slim. Iwakuma, Rich Hill, Volquez? Or do you want to deal Tucker and Bregman for an ace? I'm fine with rolling with our current group. If Keuchel can bounce back to even 2014 form, he and 3rd year Lance form a dynamic duo. I'm also a big believer in Martes. He just needs some more polish on his command, the stuff is there though.
I dont think McCullers will pitch more than 100 innings next year...he's not the type of pitcher that is going to stay healthy and eat up innings. I've come to accept that. I think Dallas will improve from his performance this past season and will be somewhere between his 2015 season and 2016 season. Good, but not great. We need to figure out the starting rotation. I like what I see out of Musgrove and want him to build on his rookie year. McHugh is going to be the same guy he was last season, which I will take as a #4 or #5 guy. I'd ideally like to get two starting pitchers. If it means trading away prospects, so be it (outside of Bregman). I wouldnt mind taking a shot at Volquez and hoping he returns to the form he had in 2014 and 2015. McCullers Kuechel Volquez McHugh Musgrove I dont mind that...could be better, but wouldnt be bad if we can also had 1-2 consistent bats.
Re-sign Castro, Valbuena, Rasmus (cheaply) Sign Fowler Trade for LOOGY and TOR starter (or at least good MOR - better than McHugh) Consider declining Neshek option if budget constrained. Lineup CF - Fowler 3B - Bregman 2B - Altuve SS - Correa RF - Springer 1B - Valbuena DH - Gurriel LF - Rasmus C - Castro/Gattis Bench C - Castro/Gattis Utility - Marwin OF - Marisnick Rotation 1. Trade 2. McCullers 3. Keuchel 4. McHugh 5. Musgrove Bullpen CL - Giles Gregerson Harris Devenski Fiers LOOGY Sipp Hoyt/Feliz/Gustave/Neshek(if money no object) Injury call ups Reed Kemp Stassi White Hernandez Felix/Gustave/
McCullers threw 165 Innings last year, and was going strong into the playoffs. The team shut him down for a stretch to watch his long term work load, but he didn't get hurt, and basically made every appearance he was scheduled for. He had arm issues this year, but one year is not enough to suggest he simply won't hold up. But then again you can't count on it either, because he hasn't done it yet. Otherwise I pretty much agree. I liked what I saw from Musgrove and I expect Keuchel to bounce back, but not to Cy young level. We need one really good starter at least that feels like a safe bet to be healthy. Because basically the entire current rotation has some questions marks, even if I do like the potential of McCullers, Musgrove and Keuchel.
Among 1B/DHs with at least 450 PAs last season, an OPS of .780 (your best case scenario) would rank 25th out of 35; .740 would rank 29th just ahead of.. .well, would you look at that: Mitch Moreland's .729. Yes; he's a professional in that he is being paid. And yes, by all means let's give "critical" at bats to a guy who posted an "amazing" .220/.300/.368/.669 with runners on last year. No... Morleand posted a -.1 oWAR last year. He most assuredly does NOT improve the Astros' offense, let alone significantly improves it. This "It can't get worse!" thinking is how we wound up not addressing the sink hole that had been Chris Carter last winter. Mitch Moreland is a terrible baseball player - I don't care if his terribleness is "better" than out terribleness. You don't get better by incrementally moving up the terrible scale. You get better by making drastic *improvements.* I will be straight-up pissed if they sign Mitch Moreland.
Agree to disagree. We have the core. We can definitely afford to add guys who bring to the table. We also need to minimize/replace guys who take off the table.
What does Moreland bring to the table? It's less than Valbuena, who's a much better defensive player, too. Mitch Moreland is hot garbage.
I expect that any player Houston signs will be expected to be a significant improvement over their existing options (obviously). So if they do sign someone like Moreland, it's more likely that they see something they think they can do to help the player breakout rather than they are just expecting an incremental improvement. It's one of the reasons I expect them to go after Reddick; the upside is there for him to be a massive improvement over Marisnick/Teoscar/Tucker/Kemp. I really am starting to doubt that the Astros will be in the mix for any QO or $80M+ free agents. Cespedes, Fowler, Desmond, EE, etc is not where Houston will play; they just can't afford to have to compete with the big payroll teams AND lose draft picks. They've got to gain the advantage by being better at evaluation and knowing which of the 2nd and 3rd tier guys are undervalued. If they have $40M to spend: Reddick $50M/4yrs ($12M in 2017) Castro $30M/3yrs ($9M in 2017) Another bat in the Valbuena/Moss/Moreland/Pearce range $8M/1yr Then use the remainder to add an affordable ace via trade.
No more "hope" - they need to focus on getting players that are known commodities who can be counted on to produce. Man, this Mitch Moreland talking is pissing me off, even though I'm fully aware that it's (for now, at least) merely fan-generated. They better not spend their offseason signing guys like Mitch Moreland.
I dont want him...Im just saying if that's actually a consideration, it should be an incredibly friendly contract. He has up and down years...his up years are solid...his down years suck. Cant rely on him as anyone that can help the team, BUT...if the Astros somehow do want him, I just hope it's nothing that will prevent us from locking up other guys that we are sure can help us.
No, he had AN up year, in 2015. He's otherwise been an exceedingly bad offensive player - sub .300 OB% and 100+ Ks three of last four years in which, during those three down years, he totaled a .1 oWAR. And it's not like he brings strong defensive credentials. Fans need to not only aspire higher, they need to be outraged if the Astros settle for spares like Mitch Moreland - that's what got us into this mess - Carter, Rasmus, Gattis, Valbuena... they're all Mitch Moreland - cheap, boom/bust reclamation projects with shallow ceilings. Enough. Fans need to demand more and the Astros need to deliver more.
What are your expectations for 2017 payroll, which players would you target, and how much do you expect them to sign with Houston for?
Honestly, my only expectation is that the team improves - however they have to go about making that happen, via spending or prospects, that's my expectation.
Well it's hard to justify your anger towards fans who speculate that Moreland might be a player that fits into their plans if you're not willing/able to propose realistic alternatives. OF course we'd all like for the billionaire owner to let his competitive nature get the better of him and become a drunken sailor, adding Cespedes, Desmond, Encarnacion, Ramos, and Chapman, and see Luhnow become some kind of wizard that allows him to trade for Sale and Quintana without giving up Bregman or McCullers. But the far more likely scenario is that Houstons going to have to shop in the 2nd tier, and that's why our speculation centers around those players.
I'd love to go out and get a star player. Until this franchise shows that they are willing to pay to play, then there is really no reason to look into players that will be making 20M+ per year...because Im guessing the front office is saving that kind of money for it's own players (Dallas, Altuve, Springer, etc...). Trust me, I do not want Moreland, just trying to justify it in the event the team goes in that direction...it doesnt matter how much I cry about it, because they will make their moves regardless of my opinion. But, if they do go there, then I can only hope for something positive to result from it.
I agree with the premise here and the overall strategy. The only thing I would expect/hope is that they find a way to move on from Castro. Can they sign Ramos affordably due to the injury, and then go with Gattis as the main catcher with a journeyman/defensive backup until Ramos is back (which I would hope is roughly the All Star break)? That could be palatable, especially if Reddick and the 1B you suggest are in the lineup + Gurriel is at least semi-productive.
