The inevitable September Collapse of the Texas Rangers

Rangers love crushing the Astros more than any other team so I doubt they give us any breaks.

 

completely doubt this. It's like the one-sided Dallas-Houston rivalry. We love to talk trash; they are like, "Who? Oh, Houston--they're south on I45, right?"

 

Don't we all!

 

Very good article on this. The Rangers luck has been historic ... unfortunately it is now also history and it is likely too late for the Astros to catch up. But next year will be a very, very different season.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...aking-unsustainable-history-in-one-run-games/

 

"Next year will be different," said all of us, last year.

Here's hoping Keuchel has at least a moderately above average season and McHugh doesn't fall off the map again. Here's hoping McCullers isn't brittle and whatever else we cull together is at least only a little below average.

Here's hoping the offense doesn't plunge itself into 0-for-800 slumps for weeks at a time.

Go Astros!

(Yes, that was very hyperbolic, and yes, I'll stop whining now.)

 

from an organization stand point, they're not that good to quote harden. It's nothing money can't fix. You have to beat them at their own game, spend but spend wisely. Just an edwin would turn the tables. It even doesn't have to be edwin but another professional hitter.
Hammels-22 mill, Beltran 15 mil, andrus 15mil. Pat neshek and sipp can't be 2 of of our highest contracts. The Rangers are taking advantage of their young studs working for pesos.

This is the time to spend is yesterday and now, while our holy trinity plus one are on the cheap.

The thought of, well we will have to spend on those four guys, so that's when our payroll will increase is a recipe for not taking the next step. Obviously you want to avoid the Fatty fielders and Soon choos.

There will be white knights that jump on anything that sounds like criticism and say, 'that's not what they're doing, bro. that's just your opinion.' Until that's not what they're doing isn't what they're doing, then it is what it is.

Signing yuli was a nice start but have to keep it rolling.

Crack pipe dreams: adding archer and uniting Carlos gonzalez with altuve, marwin and valbuena.




As for the 2016: I wanted us to be 7 games over .500 by the end of august. we're 9 games over .500. It's exciting.

 

It would be more exciting for me if we hadn't been 10 games over .500 back in July. We dropped all the way back to .500 man. That's two holes to climb out of this season (lest we forget the 8-18 start).

 

we are 6-21 against bos,tor,tex. That makes 20+ games over 500 against everyone else.

 

Yes, but we climbed......we climbed like hell. I think the lessons learned by both the players and the front office this season can and should propel us to that next level going forward.

 

They're mutually exclusive ideas, though. They have *owned* us and they *have* been historically lucky in a way that's baffling baseball people.

Well, those people are morons and you should stop reading them post-haste.

This is what I dislike - the persecution complex. Oh, woe is us...

Gomez didn't had them anything beyond 4 additional runs in a 14-1 blowout. He's been every bit as bad as a Ranger (.160/.192/.400/.592) as he was an Astro (.210/.272/.322/.594) this year. I'm embarrassed our fanbase would be embarrassed by Carlos Gomez, who is a terrible Major League Baseball player.

I don't know - we always run into the same ditch - but I just don't put all my eggs in the "championship or bust" basket in terms of my enjoyment. I enjoyed the **** out of last year; this past month has been fun and I can't wait to watch meaningful September baseball for the second year in a row! We haven't said that since... what? 2006? And I love this team; great guys who are great players that we all got to watch grow up and develop. Not winning a World Series won't dampen any of that. Not for me.

It beats the ever-living **** out of losing 100 games every year.

 

I don't feel like I'm being unreasonable or asking a lot to have an expectation that my favorite baseball team..my hometown team..win 1 championship in 50 + seasons.

Of course it beats losing 100 games. Of course it does. The idea we have to even say that is sad. That's where we plant our flag..."well, we're not gonna lose 100 games!! sign me up for season tickets!"

Listen, I get it. I enjoy going to games regardless. But holy hell...win a title...just 1...while i'm alive. Just 1. Geez.

As for the Rangers...I get they've been lucky. But who cares? The idea that diminishes their season or makes ours any better is what I'm calling "b**** ass"

 

Completely agree with this sentiment. I'm on record as saying I'd be ecstatic with anything above 85 wins this season, but if you were to tell me that would be our win total for the next THREE seasons, I'd be sick. At what point do you draw the line as far as being satisfied with a "fun" season? Yes, being above average-to-good is fun, but that kind of fun has seriously diminishing returns over the long haul. Eventually, this franchise HAS to deliver us a World Series championship.....and honestly, I'm terrified by the prospect that the Rangers are most likely positioned to get there first.

 

Seems like some people here have been predicting the rangers coming back down to earth for like, a year now. I'm still waiting for it to happen.

I'm starting to think that, despite all of the statistical oddities, they may actually be a good team.

I know that sounds crazy and there are probably 100 different stats that say otherwise...but the only stat I'm looking at is their win-loss record.

 

Win-loss? Who cares about win-loss? We have advanced super-stats that count towards being the champion of the money-ball nerd league world series.

 

I wonder if Luhnow will ask Crane to hang a banner up at MM that has our "projections". ****ing nerd.

 

lol @ this thread. the rangers own us and we'll see it again this weekend.

 

I would agree with you if you said you were hopeful or wishful. Or even that if we build a good team and remain playoff contenders for years to come, that the odds will eventually favor us winning a WS.

But to expect it sounds a bit arrogant and overly prideful.

 

Except that's not what they do. Nothing changes the past. If the Rangers have won more games, they've won more games, whether by luck or skill or whatever else. But analytics is used to try to better predict what's going to happen in the future and avoid making stupid decisions.

It gets lost in the shuffle because the Astros were abysmal in April, but since May 1st, the Astros have been just as good as the Rangers, even despite the wretched H2H performances and the slump about a month ago. April counts, so it doesn't mean a lot in the standings, but when looking forward, it certainly does. You'd be an idiot to ignore that information when building your team. Part of the reason your team hasn't won anything recently is because the last front office/owner just "wanted to win" without caring about the long-term effects on the franchise.

 

If you're asking this year's team to fix 50 years of franchise history this season, then yeah, you're kind of being unreasonable. What happened is done with and can't be fixed. It's not this team's responsibility to bear.

Each team each season has about a 3% chance to win a championship. If you account for the definitively crappy teams, maybe double that to a 6% chance. You can decide if your expectations for a championship in a particular season are unreasonable or not.

 

Probably should throw out the Rangers stretch from 6/29 to 7/23 when they went 4-16 if you are going to ignore slumps when you compare teams