Yulieski Gurriel agrees to 5/$47M deal with the Astros

I really don't think this is as big of a gamble as some are leery about. He's not a prospect or a young guy who is still trying to "get it". Very few big money international guys completely bomb/struggle to the level of some our early call-ups thus far... and I don't expect Gurriel to be much different.

Sure, his advanced age isn't a positive... but then again, this team doesn't have that quality elder presence that the young guys can actually benefit from moreso than another prospect coming up. And beyond that, getting the inside track on his little brother isn't a bad consolation.

Hell, Moises Alou was 31 when the Astros acquired him in 1998... and I thought he had the perfect run while he was here. If Gurriel comes anywhere close to duplicating the Alou Astros career, this is going to be some fun times.

 

Alou also had several years of MLB experience when he joined us at age 31.

Gurriel does not. That said, it would be fantastic if Gurriel can do for us what Alou did, minus the season he missed by falling off a treadmill or whatever freak accident he had.

 

does he pee on his hands?

 

Um... what?

It is 100% appropriate to judge the scouts and organization by the success of their players. I'm a fan of decision-science as much as the next guy, but it's ludicrous to suggest there's any other metric that counts.

That is literally the job of a professional scout, to assess the potential success rate of a player in the now or immediate short term. The Astros have a phenomenal amateur/minor league scouting record, but their professional scouting has a very mixed success rate which is particularly poor with bigger acquisitions.

Anyway I agree his signing was a good move, in isolation. As you said adding talent is always a plus. My contention has always been the dearth of other moves and hope/expectation that Gurriel will be the x-factor was optimistic/foolhardy.

 

The comp in the MLB.com articles has been Jeff Kent. If Gurriel's age 32-35 seasons come within 75% of Kent's, he will be a very good player and his contract a huge bargain. The contact is actually pretty low risk. He only needs ~4.5 WAR over the next 4.25 seasons to justify it. Hell, that's really only one stellar year.

 

dam suns only comparing him to 2 possible HOFers there in Alou and Kent.
A rich man's Dae-ho lee for now would be significant help.

 

ok then it's not peeing on his hands that's the key. It's not washing a truck he has to be aware of.

 

Based on his past production what's a decent expectation for this season?

Over/under .300 ba? 5 homers? 25 rbi?

 

I am pretty sure it's a given he starts out 0-16.

 

The comparison was more that baseball life, and production, doesn't end at 31-32.

 

My guess for his slash line: .280/.340/.440. ~5 HR sounds about right.

 

Then he'll moved up to the #2 spot

 

I would hope for better than .280 average. If not in the stretch run def for next season and beyond

 

So El Yuli is our second best hitter waiting to happen?

 

There are only 30 people in the AL right now with over a .280 average.
I would love a .280 average over the next four years from Gurriel. I would be jumping for joy.

 

If he comes in hitting .260 with a .320 obp in this short stint I'd be happy. Baseball is way too hard for me to expect more.

Now for next season onward, I hope for a >.270 avg and .340 obp. Heck if he gives us Valbuena this season for the next four years i'd be ecstatic.

 

no those numbers would still be worse than Springer and Correa

 

What is exciting is that they guys expected to be contributing players next season are getting their at bats NOW!!!

So we are seeing what they have. That is great. If they make t good, if they don't well be it

 

Any chance he can play 1st? Lots of guys who started at third moved to first later in their careers.

 

He probably could... but I'm sure they're holding out hope that Valbuena will be that guy for now.

He won't play 1st without getting significant reps there... which is usually done in spring training, not during a pennant race.