The prices are generally cheaper in August prospects wise and the Astros are in position to get first dibs on players over the Rangers or other teams ahead of them. Also, just because we like our prospects doesn't mean other teams like them. Baseball America and other ranking services don't control other front offices. Their evaluations are for the general public. For all we know Stearns might be gun shy on our prospects after seeing multiple ones flail thus far at the ML level this year and the fact his prospect haul hasn't panned out the way he'd hope so far.
Him having an intimate knowledge of our farm system can also make it harder to make a deal since he is more familiar the "throw-in" type players and knows which ones Luhnow values.
Or, our package was better and Lucroy told them he'd veto a trade to Houston. Or our package was better but Stearns hates Luhnow and took the Rangers' offer. Or, our package was objectively better but Stearns is actually a terrible talent evaluator... We have no idea. That's my point. There's too much of a narrative developing (among many posters not just you) that the Astros passively sat on the sidelines and didn't exert some special personnel power, or something. Takes two - sometimes three - to tango.
While your scenarios are possible, I refer to Occam's Razor, the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. Its much more likely we were outbid. And that doesn't happen unless we let it This is how it looks. Admittedly, it may not be what happened though. But the alternative explanation is that the other partners in the tango took less to do a deal with the Rangers. Certainly it cant be said the Rangers had more to offer. Maybe the price was too high for us. OK, ill buy that. But it still means we let the Rangers have them.
I don't think it's the simplest explanation. It's just as simple that people evaluate talent differently. Happens all the time. Also just as simple that, in a negotiation, you don't just give everyone all the info. They wouldn't just say "hey, here's what the Rangers are offering. If you beat it by a smidgen, we'll take yours". Instead, once they had an offer they liked, they would ask for specific players from the Astros to beat it significantly. They wouldn't want to accept a counter even if it was equal to the Rangers because it would indicate to the Astros how they negotiate. There's a lot of game theory involved.
Btw, gotta say, this approach will inevitably lead to perpetually being upset about trades / non-trades. If you think the Astros messed up without any of us having better knowledge of what went down and what they offered (or their strategy going into the deadline), then fine. But how these guys actually produce shouldn't impact. We all know what they've done so far, and the trade was made based on an expectation of continued production out of veteran bats. If they suddenly play out of their minds, that doesn't mean the Rangers were super smart/Astros stupid, and vice versa. Not to mention, however they perform in Arlington doesn't necessarily mean the same would've happened in Houston.
Ultimately the Astros valued their own prospects more than Beltran or Lucroy. Time will tell if it was a smart choice or not.
No matter how accurate this is right now, I guarantee the majority of the board will react to how they perform and this thread will blow up with how dumb/smart the Astros were.
The Rangers went all in via FA's. We went all in via call-ups. Lets see which moves provide the most fruit.
yep, prospects are a long-term play. You assume they will improve over time, in addition to helping now. You also assume they won't be *as* helpful this year as the vets would have been
Sure, the fruit curves will be different. One favoring the immediate future and the other building over time. The nature of two curves such as these say they will cross at some point. When that happens will be of interest, at least to me.
We shouldn't be so judgemental when this team is still in its infancy and we've got tons of payroll flexibility. Go take a look at our projected payroll over the next few years....a clean slate. Half of the 25 man will be getting paid the minimum. Gurriel will be our highest paid player at ~$11 million, with Keuchel #2 at ARB2. Rasmus and Gomez will fall off. We will have tons of $$$ to spend. Lucroy, while very good, is only under control for one more season. That fits great with the Rangers, but not near as well for us. I'd rather sign Wilson Ramos to a big long term deal this offseason and keep all of our prospects then trade Reed and Martes for the advantage of having Lucroy for the next 2-3 months and saving $$ next season.
The Rangers have 3 players on the rooster who started the year at AAA. (Mazara, Profar, Gallo) Throw in 22 year old Odor and they have plenty of home grown prospects contributing and "bearing fruit"
Mazara is below average. Gallo is about as bad as bregman so far. Odor is average. Profar looks pretty good.
