Nice breakdown on potential candidates. If adding 2, Cincinnati and BYU (football only) would be a decent haul. If adding 4, Memphis and Central Florida have the markets and recruiting landscape you are looking for. That FedEx money will be a big ace in their back pocket if it comes down to it IMO. Not saying UH doesn't fit but been through the pros and cons quite a bit already.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby tells me "the idea of (new teams) playing in the fall in 2017 is probably not realistic."</p>— Kirk Bohls (@kbohls) <a href="https://twitter.com/kbohls/status/755792538863140864">July 20, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
BYU, Memphis, Uconn Last one up for grabs. I could see one of the Florida schools to get a better foothold in that state. It won't happen but I'd like to see them change the conference name too... To something without a number in it. Something like the BPC - Big Power Conference.
Whoops... right. I meant Cincy, Memphis, BYU UConn is a strong contender for #4, but also a Florida school, UH... I think it's a long-shot for UH, and only that good because they've finally become competitive...
I think a lot of schools will want to go with "safe" expansion candidates instead of UH because they are worried about losing recruits and having their football programs harmed by bringing in a competitive in state school with a huge TV market. As such I could see schools like UConn, Cincy, Memphis, and BYU getting consideration.
You are wrong. UH is a strong contender because of FOOTBALL. Expansion is about FOOTBALL......nothing else. Memphis, UCONN football programs historically SUCK. Cincy is middle of the road. UH has shown the potential to be a powerhouse in Football. It has the resources, the size, and the Market. The reason there is a doubt......is those factors. Other Texas schools (especially Texas) is worried about a resurgent UH cutting into their recruiting base. The only reason UH doesnt get chosen is the recruiting factor.
Unfortunately, Houston isn't a huge TV market (around 10th in the country). I would say big but not huge. Houston also has a lot of A&M, Texas and Baylor fans. It would be nice for Texas and Baylor fans to be able to attend in person every other year. Half of the stadium would be the opposing teams' fans and I could already see a "Don't sell your tickets" movement. There should be 15-20K Baylor fans easily at the Baylor Rice game on Sep 2. It's all about money for the most part. If the Big 12 thinks that UH will add to the TV dollars way more so than the other candidates, it could happen. The Big 12 needs to expand some. Adding a 5th Texas school may not be that appealing at the end of the day and yes of course the other Texas schools wouldn't want to lose recruits to UH.
Yeah but them sucking is sort of why so many like them as options. UConn isn't stealing football recruits away from anyone and neither is Cincy. That's the point. They want safe expansion options that maybe expose a different area to the Big 12 possibly helping recruiting in that area while losing no recruits to those schools. If they brought in UH, it would likely lead to several schools losing even more recruits to UH and getting leapfrogged by UH in the conference. Those schools likely see that they are losing too many recruits to UH as is and they don't want to make it worse.
There's a lot of reasons why I think UH should be invited to the BIG12 but I agree that recruiting isn't one of them and might be the reason why UH is not invited.
Then.....why expand? If you dont bring teams that can help you get into the playoff by being competitive, then what is the point? That logic makes no sense.
You can look at the last 10 teams that have joined major conferences and every one came from a state that did not currently have a team in that conference. The whole point of adding media value is adding new media markets. The big 12 did well in the Houston market especially if you remove SEC games that featured Alabama which was almost all of them. No team you add to the big 12 will make people in Houston stop watching Alabama. UH still looks like a better option for the Pac 12 and ACC. I think they get serious consideration if they can put a few great years together like TCU did before they got the invite to the big 12. They will dominate the conversation for future expansion if they beat OU. Not very excited about this expansion at all. Cincy is ok but they have a tiny stadium. BYU seems like a good addition but only if you are bringing back colorado or maybe bringing in Boise for Football only but I don't know about that. I've always liked bringing in Memphis and getting into the southeast a bit and they have a great basketball program along with Connecticut which gives overall value to the conference. Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Maryland were most of the last wave of additions to the Big 10 and ACC. None of them are football powerhouses. They are just more markets into other areas of the country.
Brett McMurphyVerified account @McMurphyESPN BYU & Houston (5 votes each) top @ESPN poll of Big 12 coaches on expansion. Next: Cincinnati, Memphis (4 votes each); CSU, UCF (1 vote each)
Boise State has won more games in the last decade than any other program outside of Bama and they are barely in any of the expansion talks. So no, its just not about football. Furthermore, both Cincy (and BYU) have better winning percentages than UH in that same time period and have the 2nd highest winning percentage out of all the non-P5 schools. So not sure why they are middle of the road compared to UH.
There is no question that UH is likely to be the best add from a quality of product and competitive stand point. However there are other factors that will go into the decision. I still think that the PAC or ACC are likely to want UH.
Of course, that's a reason for the Big 12 to add them, if the PAC or ACC get to take a bite out of Texas recruiting it'll hurt the Big 12 a lot more than just UH would as a part of the Big 12. They are already in the process of losing the Houston TV market entirely due to the SEC making progress in Texas, I'm not sure they'd want to make it worse.
"We own the Houston market" No you don't. If/when UH ends up in the ACC that image will look worse. What exactly does the Big 12 think the Houston recruits are watching when they watch college football games?
So it has nada to do with putting five state schools in a conference when no other conference has done that, and reaching NEW eyeballs and talent (i.e. reasons you expand)?
I never said that UH owned the market, I said that the Big 12 was losing ground. That image has a LOT of SEC and not a lot of Big 12. Also a factor was that not many UH games were on TV and they still had 2 of the top 10 highest rated games in the market. Give them more games on TV and you'd see more UH games on the list. Also the point I was making is that you don't see any PAC games or any ACC games on the list, that would change if UH joined one of those two conferences. If the Big 12 wants to stop losing the Houston market, they need to do something.
