I'd rather not pay premium prices for #3ish guys. No true "ace" but they sure are gonna ask for an ace package. Jim Bowden: Julio Teheran: One scout said it would take more than the Shelby Miller deal, maybe twice as much. Rich Hill: Blister won't affect his value; Texas, Baltimore, Miami, Boston, Detroit, Toronto & Kansas City are all in on Rich Hill Jake Odorizzi/Matt Moore: Tampa needs bats/position players; they'll trade one of these starters. Talked to Texas about Profar & Gallo; talked to Miami about Naylor & someone off the big league club.
Profar/Gallo for either of those pitchers is an absolute joke. The asking price is out of control. If TAM needs bats, I wonder if they would accept would Valbuena (and his comp pick after he turns down QO) + a couple B level prospects, a la Kemp, Moran, Fisher. I'd love to strike a deal with TAM if we can do so without giving up major long-term pieces.
I do agreed that the Astros best chance to win a WS is the next 3-5 yrs. A player like Kyle Tucker would make perfect sense, since he is at least 2 yrs away from joining the big league club.
On the Brewer fan site I read regularly (I grew up in Wisconsin) they were talking about Lucroy and/or Jimmy Nelson. I don't think the price is worth it for either guy.
Lucroy wants to get to Houston or the Rangers. He also wants to be paid according to his value. His trade value is too high, but we stand a huge chance of landing him at a discount once he is a free agent.
To piggyback on this, here are the valuable prospects I think Houston could trade away without it having a devastating impact on their competitive window: TINSTAAPP: Martes Musgrove Paulino Abreu Feliz Pitching prospects are fungible and extremely hard to predict. Houston has shipped out a ton of them (Velasquez, Foltynewicz, Appel, Mengden, Hader, Houser, Lyles, Eshelman, Arauz, Thurman) and yet still has a very deep farm. I would say that Houston could feasibly trade all 5 of the guys I listed above (any 3 of whom should be enough to land a top flight player in return) and still have an above average stock of pitching in their system. So many under the radar arms could slide right in. Hell, there are 4 studs in A-ball alone that I think could make the jump to Top 100 status next season (Perez, Armenteros, J Hernandez, E Hernandez). Luhnow and Co has demonstrated a tremendous ability to develop pitching, especially in the international pipeline. Blocked: Singleton (Reed) Kemp (Altuve) Moran (Gurriel/Bregman) White (Reed) All 4 of these guys are major league ready but would have much more value to a rebuilding team looking for potential stars who just need big league ABs; Houston simply has no room for them while they're contending. One them could be the next Villar, JD Martinez, or Grossman. Timeline: K Tucker Cameron M. Sierra These are 3 extremely high ceiling players who are far enough away that Houston could likely never feel their loss. None of these players will be in Houston by 2018, and who knows what other prospects will have emerged in their place by then. Of course I wouldn't relish the idea of losing all of these players, but Houston could easily trade for 1 or 2 true star impact players this month and still have a pretty good farm.
Agree. Of the names I've heard as available, Teheran, Gray and Archer are the only ones that interest me (I don't think Sale is available), and if any of them cost what Arizona gave up for Miller I'd just as soon Houston stay out of it. That's not to say I'm opposed to giving up value, a package of Martes/Tucker/Musgrove would be a lot to give up, but if it would bring back Gray or Archer Id be ok with it.
Much more likely they target the other Tampa pitchers... Would be cheaper and they could be just as effective for this year.
Jim Bowden is also the same guy who said Bregman was coming up this weekend. As a former GM, he's just reporting what he's getting from his GM friends and in this case the selling GMs. If you want some good and humorous insight on trade negotiations, there's an SI article back from when the Reds acquired Griffey Jr. From where negotiations started to the package agreed to, you'll find most everything out there is pure posturing.
I don't get many chances to toot my own horn, but we are halfway there folks! After adding Gurriel, we just need to trade for Sale, and then profit. I said this about a month ago, and I'm pretty sure Bregman hasn't gotten out since then, so it would sting much more to trade him, but still, in the grand scheme of things, an ace might still be worth it.
If the Astros could trade for Sale without including Bregman, then I am all for it. Otherwise, no thanks.
I think trading for Shoemaker with a package built around Martes would probably be my preferred choice right now. I'd also like Rich Hill, but for a low cost (maybe Brady Rodgers).
This is interesting: would you trade the Stros top 6 prospects, whoever the hell they are sans Bregman (and I'd hate to give up Reed as well), for 3 guaranteed years of Chris Sale and then he walks away to LA or wherever?
Yes, I would trade Tucker, Martes, Musgrove, Paulino, Fisher, and Abreu for Chris Sale. Here's how I'd rationalize it: Tucker: he isn't showing HR power and if he does hell likely be grown out of CF. Signing Lourdes Gurriel would replace Tucker's talent in the system. Musgrove: No room for him in the rotation and he can be replaced by the supplemental pick they'll get when Sale walks in free agency. Martes: Gotta give value to get value but there are plenty of international arms (Perez, Hernandez, etc) who could be the next Martes. Paulino: see above. Abreu: see above. Fisher: Strikes out too much and Stephen Wrenn is better anyway.
Presuming that most top prospects still only have a 30-40% chance of making it (and making it big), of course you do that deal. And this is before you consider that there's still very limited top-flight pitching prospects in this system. However... And this goes for all the trade speculation of Sale... The guy has to actually be on the market. As of right now, the White Sox have no plans of trading him any time soon.
After the deal is agreed to, the Astros substitute Preston Tucker, Felipe Paulino, Bobby Abreu and Derek Fisher. Win-Win
Chris Sale scares me...not sure how much pounding that skinny arm of his can take. His funky mechanics worry me regarding his longevity. Of course, he could never have an issue for another 10 years, but still...just makes me nervous. Kid's a stud though.
