2016 Astros Minor League Thread

To bad Marisnick can't hit because he sure can't play defense as good as anyone in the Majors. He may have some trade value on defense alone.

 

If Whitley was anywhere close to being a top 100 type prospect coming out of HS he wouldn't be an Astro.

On the other hand, Jonathan Arauz (Giles trade) has really, really struggled. Btw, he's listed at 145 lbs, Sierra at 165 as 18 year olds. Intriguing to watch how they fill out over the next couple of years.

I'd imagine there are many GM's kicking themselves for not taking a shot on him or Devenski in the Rule 5 last winter.

 

17th picks typically produce a value of about the 90th best prospect in baseball. Granted 17th picks have more variability (I.e. More busts, but more great players)

 

Before they ever throw a pitch in the pros?

 

I think Whitley would be more in the top 150.
Looking at BA list prior to the year, the $11 pick from last year's draft sneaked in the back end at #98 on the list.
I think some of it would depend on the strength of the draft class.
The top ten guys drafted always make it into the BA Top 100 list from my experience. From 11-20, I have seen some years that the #17 gets in, some years they do not.

 

Amateur scouts for MLB teams get their teams to pick guys 17th that end up having MLB careers that produce on average about the same value as what Baseball America ranks the 90th prospect more or less. The 17th pick has more variability, but considering the number of guys drafted, that shouldn't be too big a concern. Amateur scouts are employed by MLB teams for a reason.

 

I understand what you are saying, but I think we're talking about 2 different things. I found it hard to believe that there are not 100something better prospects in baseball *in any given year* than the 17th player drafted that year, i.e. if he was rated that highly out of HS, he wouldn't have been the 17th pick.

 

Who was the last #17 pick to make the top 100 before playing one inning in the minors?

 

I think the difference is variability. There are way more than 100 prospects that will do something in majors than the median 17th pick. The 17th picks that do produce something, produce more. Last year's 17th pick has pitched in 4 games poorly since being drafted and is 59th.

 

Last year's #17 pick was Brady Aiken.

 

I don't think he'll actually be ranked around 90th as BA will likely go with "safer" prospects.

 

There are a couple types of prospects. Guys that never sniff a list and just keep hitting til the majors (Altuve). Studs that are high on the list from day one (Harper, Strasberg). Guys that have a decent mix of tools and production and back-end on the lists (Derek Fisher). Then there are the flawed or inexperienced high-upside guys that go from off the list to the middle of the list (Martes, Paulino).

Whitley is definitely gonna fall in the last group. Abreu is another guy who when he breaks out isn't just hitting #100. He'll make a splash on the list.

 

Jiovanni Mier got ranked #73 by BA and #97 by BP in the offseason following his draft.

0 unintentional walks in 12 games is pretty depressing.

Was really surprised nobody took Devenski. Hernandez's comeback has really surprised me. Didn't see a transformation like this.

 

Ummmm. This year in fact. Didn't take me long to research that.
Brady Aiken was the 17th pick. Ranked in the top 75. Didn't play last year.

The top 10 to 20 get in regardless of what they do in the minors. You tried to throw in a semantics argument about not having played in the minors. Of course most of them have played in the minors by the time the next year lists roll around but what they do in the minors has no bearing on the ranking either way.

 

Reason #1356 why prospect lists are largely worthless and I hate them.

Lol at Bradey Aiken. I imagine a #1 pick the year before might rank highly with people who rank things.

It all depends on how you make these lists, is it production or potential? Which is more important? There's no one right answer, but a combination.

 

Lists are generally useless, no matter how they get constructed.

I tend to like individual grades better for prospects. Again, grades are highly subjective and thus are hard to derive deep meaning from. Grades do tell a story about how prospects are progressing or not, which I value.

 

Anyone knows when Forrest Whitley will make his professional debut ?!

 

He threw so much deep into the HS playoffs that if he's on the rubber for more than a dozen innings if any at all I'd be shocked.

 

Make that 7 HRs.

 

Make that 8.