30 ppg <--Will win scoring title 8 apg (remains #1 in apg by SG) 6.5 rpg (remains #1 in apg by SG) 1.8 spg 150 steals (jumps from #3 to #1 in spg by SG) 0.7 bpg 60 blocks (jumps from #4 in bpg to #2 bpg by SG, behind Danny Green) 16.5 Win Shares (reclaims #1 from '14-'15 season) 4.5 Defensive Win Shares (in the Top 5) 8.0 Value Over Replacement Player (#1) Spoiler
I think those numbers are the least likely. He had to play 81 games and did so on a much better defensive roster than they're likely to have next season in order to get 4.2 DWS a year ago. And he's only topped 3.0 DWS one other time in his entire career, so 4.5 seems really unlikely. Everything else I could feasibly see happening.
Sorry man, but I think that is extremely unlikely. A player hasn't averaged more than 32 points per game since Kobe put up 35 in 2006. And that roster around him was absolutely awful that season. If Harden is somewhere between his last two seasons in terms of efficiency, he'd have to take 21-22 shots per game to score that many points. With more offensive weapons on the roster, I just don't see that happening barring some major injuries to other guys.
26/9/7 I think his scoring will dip a little with more added shooters and a higher paced offense (more opportunities for other guys to score, less Harden holding the ball).
I believe it won't be a break out season, but I'm sure he going to avg around 27.5/9.8 ast/ 7.1 reb this season. Getting WAY more help from his bench than last year. Ryan Anderson, Dekker, Harrell, Gordan and Nene being big reasons.
9-man rotation shot distribution Bev 8 Beard 20 Trev 8 Anderson 12 Capela 8 Gordon 10 Beasley 10 D-Mo 8 Nene 4 --------------- 88 FGAs/g (Top 3) Caveat being that I'd be shocked if the roster today will be the roster Oct. 30th. Way too much phone workin' going on right now...
I actually think the numbers might stay the same or go down compared to last year. All except the assists. If we don't get another PG then we're looking at the ball starting in Harden's hands even more than before. This time however there will be a structured offense that he'll be playing in. Not just roll it on the court McHale sticky hero ball. We'll also have the best personnel in terms of shooting that James has ever had. My prediction: 28ppg, 9apg, 6rg
I really, really hope that Beasley isn't taking as many shots per game as Gordon. I feel like that's not a great recipe for success. And if he's taking that few shots per game, why did they just pay him $12 million-$13 million a year? I also think Anderson will take more.
$12m a year? You mean like journey man back up PG Jeremy Lin kind of money? I see Beasley absolutely feasting in a D'Antoni system. He was killing it at a high clip from mid-range last year. If salary translated to shots, Anderson would take more shots than Harden next year. You're faced with 2 extremes: -Beasley in a rebirth of his career playing for possibly the best bargain price in the NBA next season. Expect Beasley to beast and then get paaaaaaaaaaaaaaaid next offseason. -Extreme #2, your'e looking at a Gordon contract that was cut in this wonky offseason where Parsons is getting $24.5 and Conley $30m. I would be surprised if Gordon shoots better than Beasley next year. I expect Beasley to play out of his mind. He's already at SL camp learning the D'Antoni system. The only veteran...
Lin can do other things aside from score. You don't bring in Jeremy Lin in to shoot. You bring him in to create. You don't sign Gordon to do things other than shoot. He doesn't defend, rebound or create for others exceptionally well for his position. What he does is shoot and score. So if he's only taking 10 shots a game, I think that was a poor investment on Morey's part. As for Beasley, I think projecting his season is like playing darts with a blindfold on. He could revitalize his career and score 12-15 points a game next season or completely implode again with inefficient basketball and atrocious defense, finding himself with a lot of DNP CD's. I'm not going to try to project his performance, but I do think that the ball needs to be in Gordon's hands before it's in the hands of Beasley.
I think this is realistic, if not a little bullish. Even with D'Antoni, I doubt Harden averages a double double with 30+ PPG. Him and Westbrook should be the first two players off the board in any fantasy basketball draft, though.
Westbrook is going to mean mug the heck out of fools who cost him opportunities at triple dubs this year.