2016 Random Astros Trade Ideas

Of the pitchers listed as available in the article, Gray, Teheran, Odorizzi, and Pomeranz are the only ones who move the needle for Houston, and really only Gray and Teheran have the kind of track record I would like to see in a ToR trade acquisition.

 

Not if we acquire Lucroy. He would be the starting catcher next season.

Because in acquiring Lucroy, that would leave us with 3 catchers. Gattis would move to DH full-time, but I don't really want that.

 

Odorizzi is similar to Mike Fiers in terms of production, only younger.

Matt Shoemaker has a FIP of 3.42, xFIP of 3.58, SIERA of 3.58, K/9 of 9.27, and BB/9 of 1.85. Those numbers are substantially off of his career numbers. That is a substantial improvement to our rotation over Fiers.

Rich Hill has been very good for the last 2 seasons in admittedly small samples. He would be an improvement of Fiers as well, and should be the least expensive in terms of prospects given up.

 

I would be wary of trading for someone like Shoemaker, Hill, Pomeranz, Nelson, et al. We need a 1 or 2, not another 3 or 4. Granted, it all depends on cost, but I doubt any pitcher this trade season comes cheaply.

 

I wouldn't use Fiers as the barometer as he probably won't pitch much in the playoffs if the Astros make it. If the Astros go get a starter, suspect they want a guy that would help a lot for both regular season and playoffs.

I suspect McCullers, Keuchel, and McHugh are the primary playoff starters. Fiers or Fister would likely be used as a spot starter in bullpen games.

 

Shoemaker, Hill, & Pomeranz have all pitched like #2 guys, IMO. They just don't have an extended track record. Between those 3, Gray, & Teheran:

2016:
Gray..........FIP=4.52/xFIP=4.21/SIERA=4.34
Teheran......FIP=3.71/xFIP=4.03/SIERA=3.75
Pomeranz....FIP=3.35/xFIP=3.67/SIERA=3.80
Shoemaker..FIP=3.42/xFIP=3.58/SIERA=3.57
Hill............FIP=2.71/xFIP=3.71/SIERA=3.58

2015:
Gray........... FIP=3.45/xFIP=3.69/SIERA=3.80
Teheran.......FIP=4.40/xFIP=4.19/SIERA=4.24
Pomeranz....FIP=3.62/xFIP=3.89/SIERA=3.73 (86IP, but only 9 starts)
Shoemaker...FIP=4.59/xFIP=4.16/SIERA=3.98
Hill.............FIP=2.27/xFIP=2.50/SIERA=2.29 (only 29IP)

2014:
Gray...........FIP=3.46/xFIP=3.47/SIERA=3.56
Teheran.......FIP=3.49/xFIP=3.72/SIERA=3.68
Pomeranz....FIP=3.77/xFIP=3.65/SIERA=3.62 (69IP, 10 starts)
Shoemaker...FIP=3.26/xFIP=3.28/SIERA=3.19
Hill............ DNP

 

I think they are all improvements over McHugh as well, just not as much. None of the players mentioned by the article are David Price-esque players. They are are a step down from that (though a substantial step up from Feldman/Norris of a few years ago). They are more like Scott Kazmir last season, but younger and under control beyond this season (except for Hill on both counts).

FWIW, as bad as Keuchel has been this year, his advanced numbers better than Gray's and similar to Teheran's.

 

I like Pomeranz but he has never thrown many innings in a season

 

Same with Hill.

That is why they are higher risk, but they should come with lower cost.

 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Houston, it's a good morning to be an Astros fan. One of the most active and aggressive clubs on the market.<a class="hashtag" action="hash" title="#July2">#July2</a></p>&mdash; Jesse Sanchez (@JesseSanchezMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/JesseSanchezMLB/status/749230051002949633" data-datetime="2016-07-02T13:15:38+00:00">July 2, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

I suspect this is meant for the International signing day

 

[rquoter]•The Astros and Blue Jays are up to something. Jays scouts are watching the Astros’ system closely.

•Matt Moore, LHP, Rays — His outstanding performance against the Red Sox Wednesday was witnessed by a lot of scouts. He’s become a name on the top of the list of many teams if the Rays decide to part with him. The Red Sox, Rangers, Dodgers, Yankees, Orioles, Astros, and Royals are all interested in Moore. The Rays may consider this as they get closer to seeing Alex Cobb come back from Tommy John surgery.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/...his-red-sox/vLWZCfJ926koHqQyXUFCmI/story.html[/rquoter]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sources: Teams checking in on <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Angels?src=hash">#Angels</a>' Santiago; <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> scouting him tonight. LAA won't part with Santiago easily. Under control thru '17.</p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/749387292146540548">July 2, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Told <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> scout in Boston looking at a variety of potential <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Angels?src=hash">#Angels</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RedSox?src=hash">#RedSox</a> targets, not just Santiago. Standard this time of year.</p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/749395609329758208">July 3, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Spoiler

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sources: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rays?src=hash">#Rays</a> actively discussing starting pitchers, looking to jump market with so few quality starters available.</p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/749404172752154624">July 3, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A team that landed a <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rays?src=hash">#Rays</a> SP now would get 4-5 extra starts before deadline. Archer probably least likely to go; contract too good for TB.</p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/749404217777987585">July 3, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

Only relevant Astros mentions are below, but here's the story if anyone is interested: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/07/02/nick-cafardo-why-dave-dombrowski-stays-close-his-red-sox/vLWZCfJ926koHqQyXUFCmI/story.html

Spoiler

 

apologies for the double post, just saw the info was already provided for in J.R.'s post.

i'm becoming senile in preparing for the bar...

 

That is a problem, I usually only get senile after I've been there for a while.

 

Hard to guess what Houston and Toronto would be discussing. Both teams are in the fringes of contention and both have quite a few pending free agents they are unlikely to resign. They just don't seem like a match. I really hope Houston isn't trying to reaquire Happ. And I don't want them paying premium prospects for rentals like Bautista or Encarnacion or Smoak.

 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Unclear how Jays and Astros would match up on a deal at this point, though <a href="https://twitter.com/nickcafardo">@nickcafardo</a> says something is likely in the works.</p>&mdash; Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/749662651568054272">July 3, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Blue Jays have been scouting Astros' system, per <a href="https://twitter.com/nickcafardo">@nickcafardo</a>. One prospect they've looked at, per source: Francis Martes.</p>&mdash; Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/749662499000164353">July 3, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

Toronto isn't trading Happ, Bautista, or Encarnacion.

Really don't see a logical pairing with them.

 

Donaldson for Marte and Moran.

 

I wanted something like that 2 years ago when he left Oakland.