[Morey's Ace] Summer of 2017

I think we all want to land big fish this year in free agency with the Durants, Conleys, and Horfords of the world but odds are against the Rockets to pull out a huge offseason this summer with free agent signings. Shoot I hope we get a top tier free agent but I'm not holding my breath. I think, ultimately, Morey and his team will reach out to the big targets to do their homework and to put Houston in their heads for future reference. Other than that, I think Morey will stand pat or sign a couple of talented role players and wait for the Summer of 2017. Why?

1. Caproom, Caproom, Caproom.

Pretty much every team has significant caproom this summer with the cap increasing, with a good amount of teams having more of it than what the Rockets currently have without doing the typical Morey juggling maneuvers. But in 2017, Houston only have the following players under contract:


James Harden $17,811,625
Corey Brewer $7,579,366
Trevor Ariza $7,420,912
Patrick Beverley $5,513,513
K.J. McDaniels $3,476,874
Clint Capela $2,334,528
Sam Dekker $1,794,600
Montrezl Harrell $1,090,000

That's a total of about $46.9 million but, wait, there's more: KJ, Clint and Sam's deal for 2017-2018 are team options. If Clint progresses this upcoming season and KJ and Sam turn out to be duds, we can shave another $5 million from the total to drop it down to $41.9 million. But lets say we only let Sam walk and not bring him back, keeping KJ. That still only earmarks $45.1 million among 7 players.

Lets say the cap doesn't move an inch from this summer and holds at $92 million. That gives the Rockets approximately $47 million in caproom. But, according to speculative reports, the caproom should balloon to the $105 range, giving Houston almost $60 million to work with. This also doesn't factor in any variable where Morey deals Bev, Brewer, or Ariza, all only have 1 year left before they become free agents in 2018. A Bev at $5 million or an Ariza at $7 million would be a huge bargain for any team.


So why does this matter, I'm sure other teams will have caproom in 2017 as well? Because

2. Having James Harden matters

The turnovers are cringeworthy. The offense looks ugly at times. The defense is severely lacking. All being said, Harden is still an elite talent that hasn't made any enemies among his NBA fraternity and would still be in his prime, barring any severe catastrophe *knocks on wood*

Of the teams in 2017 has both the requisite cap room ($40+ million) and an elite talent still under contract

Chicago Bulls with Jimmy Butler
Indiana with Paul George
New Orleans with Anthony Davis

(I didn't include the Clippers and Thunder of the league because they have elite players that are going to hit free agency next summer.)

While all three (maybe sans Butler) are formidable comparisons to Harden in terms of talent, none have been as durable as Harden. Would signing with an Eastern Conference team like Chicago or Indiana provide an easier path to the Finals?

Of course the other big factor here with Harden is that he's going to enter the last year of his underpaid contract but I doubt that would be a big issue since we can go over the cap to re-sign him and also because.....

3. Morey's wetdream Big 3 will be realized

Look at the list of available free agents next summer:

Unrestricted:
Jeff Teague
Kyle Korver
Taj Gibson
Derrick Rose
Stephen Curry
Andre Igoudala
Shaun Livingston
George Hill
JJ Redick
Jrue Holiday
Serge Ibaka
Russell Westbrook

Player Option/ETO:
Paul Millsap
Danilo Gaillinari
Blake Griffin
Chris Paul
Greg Monroe
Kyle Lowry
Gordon Hayward

Restricted:
Nikola Mirotic
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Victor Oladipo
Nerlens Noel
CJ McCollum
Rudy Gobert

This doesn't include LeBron James and Kevin Durant signing 2 year (2nd year player option) deal this summer to enter free agency again next summer.

I'll let you pick which players would fit Harden and Dan Tony's offense.

4. It's par for the course

Based on the trend seen over the past 3 coaching regimes in Houston, the first year for a new coach in Houston doesn't feature a massive/significant overhaul in players. JVG had a year to work with Francis/Mobley/Yao before the opportunity presented itself to trade for McGrady a year later. Adelman worked with McGrady/Battier/Yao for a season before the Artest trade came out of nowhere. McHale took over the the ragtag bunch of Scola/Martin/etc before Morey struck gold again a year later with the Harden trade.

I think it's safe to say that Morey knows he can't expect big trades to fall in his lap in the future so next summer's free agency will not only be entering year 2 of Dan Tony's tenure but also the pseudo-scheduled time when Morey and the Rockets do, in fact, overhaul the Roster.

So what, we stomach a season with only Harden and trash? We ride that mediocrity treadmill for another season?

If this is the case then I don't know why the people asking these questions are surprised considering we've done it a couple of times before (riding the mediocrity treadmill) during Morey's tenure. Our owner's insistence on not missing the playoffs also adds to the potential that next year's Rockets, barring any miraculous acquisitions, will stay above water but not by much.

I think, by now, our expectations for hitting it big in free agency come July 1st this year should be tempered considering the biggest and most needed catch has more logical options ahead of him than to sign with Houston this year.

 

I'm not saying I'm in support of waiting til next summer because I want to see a good Rockets team take court next season. But with the variables at play this summer on the free agency market, I don't think Morey is going to come out with the top tier guys.

Is his job in jeopardy? I think Les will give him another season (hence, the post) to get the players. If he strikes out then all bets are off. I don't think Les is ready to push Morey out the door considering Dan Tony wasn't Morey's call to begin with.

 

FLUID should be the next one :grin: