Just a point of clarification, I believe it was the Phillies that asked for Appel to replace Fisher, due to the injury concerns of VV. I am not 100% on that, but I believe that is why the switch to Appel was made (not to say that might not have been preferred by the Astros as well).
Certainly looks like he may have sold high on Appel. Fisher is 6th in AA in OPS, hovering around .900. Only 2 of the guys in front of him are younger than him (one of whom is Bregman).
Do you guys think we will see any promotions soon? I expect we will but I wonder if the front office views AA as a better stepping stone that AAA or if they think AAA is still a good progression that most players should take. Reed not dominating AAA should show that it is still a tough test that most players should be able to exploit before getting the call to the majors. I assume Fisher and/or Teoscar will get called up to AAA in the next couple of weeks and maybe even Bregman unless they would rather have them season in AA.
Also, it is too early to say if Phillips or Fisher is the better prospect with the highest potential but it seems the case could be made for Fisher having the higher ceiling due to more power, average walks, better baserunning? What about his defense? I believe he mostly plays CF like Phillips but is he above average? I dream of an outfield with Springer in CF and a stud Left Fielder and power hitting Right Fielder but maybe Fisher could be the CF with Springer in RF someday which should make it a lot easier to find a long term LF eventually (Kyle Tucker, Teoscar, Bregmann, etc.)
My only concern with Fisher, and it's a fairly big one, is will he carry a high enough average. In a lot of ways he profiles as a poor man's Springer offensively. Springer was able to be a .300 hitter in the minors despite his high K rate and he had explosive pop. Fisher has thus far been about a .275 hitter. He walks, and has good pop, but (as we have witnessed a ton) if you can't maintain at least a decent average it put a lot of pressure on other aspects. I fear that may limit him to being adequate, and not a difference maker. Plus despite his speed, the scouts all seem to agree he's not good defensively. Bad reactions, and a bad arm.
Going on what I've read about Fisher, he doesn't have a plus arm. He doesn't have the best reads on breaking on balls hit into the outfield. Which means he could play all OF positions, but would be a liability everywhere but Left Field. So I am thinking an outfield of Fisher in left, Kyle Tucker in center, and Springer in Right. With Teoscar and Daz Cameron providing depth in case of a trade or anyone falters.
I think that depends on if Luhnow and company view the competition at AA as comparable to what they would get at AAA. Sometimes moving a guy to AAA who is already close to the majors is simply to free up a spot in AA to try out other players. Reed doesn't have to destroy AAA pitching but really just needs to show he has the overall approach to the game to be successful. There's nothing for Bregman to prove in AAA and the Astros would be better served calling these players up than trading for others. All young players have to adjust at somepoint. It's more rare that someone makes a big impact from day one like Pujols or Posey than it is for someone to be an impact player but need adjustment time like Trout. I know White isn't producing at the moment but infrequent playing time doesn't help either. The majority of players need over a 1000ABs before any kind of definitive judgement on their careers can be made.
Thanks to Super 2 (sorry Nick) Springer will be a free agent after the 2020 season at the age of 30. While yes Tucker may not be ready by then I still project Springer to be a franchise player for as long as possible assuming we will pay him when he is a free agent. I suspect Tucker will be ready in 2019 and 2020 at the latest but of course it is too early to say. The early signs are promising though. 2016 - A, 2017 - A+, 2018 - AA/AAA, 2019 - AAA/MLB. Seems like a reasonable trajection to me.
Super 2 has nothing to do with Springer's free agency year.... that was covered by him staying down in AAA for the first month of the 2014 season. Super 2 would have him going to arbitration 1 year earlier.... but he's still under club control for the same amount of time. Regardless, I expect the Astros to actively look to extend any potential franchise cornerstone to cover all their arbitration years and some of their free agency years... prior to their current free agency deadline.
I think they'll look for a bargain at that time. But I would expect most, if not all guys (maybe sans Correa) to finish 1 year of play under an arbitration-eligible contract before signing their extension. Though Keuchel's year might make them think twice..
Sure, depends how things are going. Only the Mike Trout's of the world get a super-extension in their early years of infancy... everybody else waits (including when Lance and Roy got their's).
It seems they don't devalue AAA as that makes sense since there is some good major league talent there. I saw a quote from Luhnow saying how Reed needs to work on a couple of things before they think he can contribute consistently. He has not hit against lefties well and for whatever reason they want him to be a mainstay when he comes up instead of a platoon. I can see both sides of this argument because if you bring him up to play against righties only then his development against lefties may suffer since he would be getting little to no looks. He may not be the starting 1st basemen most teams need that plays every day no matter who the pitcher is if he doesn't get better results in the minors against both types of pitchers. He is 5 for 42 with a .560 OPS against lefties so far in AAA. Last year he had an OPS of .717 against lefties which is a little better but hopefully he can improve. That is a little troublesome so I do see why the front office would keep him down for more seasoning especially since he isn't completely killing RHP's either. Anyways, we do need more consistent production from 1B and 3B but I think Valbuena is showing some real improvement as to just a hot streak. He is really seeing the ball well and working good counts. Also, Gonzales may be coming to life after last night so hopefully he can get closer to the player he was last year. I am also holding out hope that White knows what he needs to work on and can make the necessary adjustments to be successful at least against most lefties.
Josh James has put up some really nice numbers for Lancaster with very little buzz about him. He struck out 5 over 2.2 perfect innings last night.
We certainly didn't sell high on Appel. 2 years earlier would have been selling high. That is a nice change. The DSL teams have been terrible for years.
