How does a lack of a title drive your decision? Berry, you'll drive yourself crazy if you listen to everyone. Like I said, the type of people I'll be around every single day, am I enjoying playing basketball? That's what I'm gonna center everything around. Love my teammates here. Love playing basketball here. Winning is important but you want to be around good people, a good environment with good coaching.
The best player available via trade in the next months may be Butler, and he's not on Harden's level so, not sure the Celtics can sit down with Durant having a better team than us. And it's not even sure the Celtics are ahead in a potential scenario like this, they have more picks than anybody, but they have no young guys with star potential so, if the Bulls are going to rebuild and trade Jimmy, i can see Lakers and Sixers ahead of Ainge in negotiations since they can trade a better pick and also potential stars like Russell, Okafor.
Do you think the Lakers or Sixers would give up their pick for Jimmy Butler? Really really solid player, but is he worth the upside of Simmons? No. Is he worse the upside of Ingram? Maybe, but not definitively. Is he worth the upside of whatever the #3 pick is? Yes, absolutely. That's the draft this year for you. Moreover, the Celtics will have a crapton of cap room. http://hoopshype.com/salaries/boston_celtics/ Like an enormous amount, especially if they get momentum and decide against offering qualifying offers and/or picking up team options. Finally, regardless of what others might think, Boston is a great market to be a sports superstar in. great. Fantastic. Not saying it happens, just pointing out that if his goals are (i) chance to win a ring, (ii) money, (iii) fandom, (iv) endorsement potential, his top two choices should be: 1. OKC 2. Boston I might even switch them. Durant on the Celtics, plus some other astute moves, and that's an ECF team guaranteed for the next 5 years, with probably multiple Finals appearances. And at the end of the day, KD will be judged on how far he gets in the playoffs, and getting to the promised land multiple times, even if he has a Lebron-esque record in those chances, will up his legacy. Getting to the Finals in the West is beyond difficult. As a guy who historically has been annoyed by the dynastic organizations like the Lakers, Celtics, etc. it would be a bit annoying. but as a fan of a team playing in the West, it would also be refreshing to see a star player go to the East. Of course, as a Rockets fan, HOU would be where I'd prefer to see him!
It's not a mess, it's actually one of the best organizations around. I get that this coaching search has been "meh" as a Rockets fan, especially cause we expected someone else as a coach, but the process wasn't negative, it's not like they promise the job to someone and then changed idea...they taked their time like they did in the past. About chemistry, talent and Morey i'm not sure, to each his own i guess but i have a different opinion, chemistry was bad, that happens, move on, i also think that Dwight leaving is a plus for us, at this point everybody knows that where he goes something bad happens...players around the league don't like Dwight, not Morey, Morey did a lot of great moves, put together a contending roster almost two timesm without tanking, players know he can make your team better and that he's able to always keep you in the mix when there are opportunities. The talent was the same that last season went to the wcf, declining? Maybe/probably, but that is going to change anyway, especially if Durant comes here so, i don't see this as a problem, it's like Durant shouldn't go to the Spurs cause Duncan is done and they chocked in the playoffs...
Personally i have nothing against the Celtics, in fact i'm a fan of Ainge and i stated long ago that they are probably the only team with a chance to sign Durant in the East, but we're talking about the Lakers and Colangelo Sixers...i'm pretty sure they both want to trade for a great player as soon as possible, and they have a lot of good assets too (talent-wise better than Ainge), those are simply not organizations/guys willin to wait for young players to develop, if there'll be a chance, i'm sure they'll be in play, and if i am the Bulls i'd probably take Okafor/Russell (or Ingram) and something more than the 3rd pick and Smart/Crowder... Also, add the Suns to the mix, i think they're in the same situation than the Celtics, maybe with less assets, but they're always looking for a big trade and sign top players in free agency. So, i'm just saying that Ainge in obviously in the mix, but it's gonna be hard for him.
It's pretty easy to say that Harden is a better fit next to Durant. If you watched the playoffs then you saw how GS played Durant. They doubled Durant on every touch, kept two big men in the lane to prevent Westbrook from driving and allowed Westbrook to take all of the open shots that he wanted from the perimeter. That's why Curry could hold Westbrook to 30% shooting, most all of those shots were from the perimeter. That's the shots that were available to Westbrook because when he drove, Green and Bogut were waiting in the lane for him. If Westbrook isn't getting points at the rim then he's turned into a jump shooter which isn't his forte. That allows teams to play Westbrook straight up and double on Durant which is exactly what happened vs GS. The Warriors were more than willing to allow Westbrook to take all the perimeter shots that he wanted since it meant that they could double Durant the entire game. If you pair up Harden and Durant, each is such a gifted offensive player, it makes it difficult to double team because you are then leaving the other guy 1-on-1. We saw the same situation with Lebron and Wade in Miami. You couldn't double either of them because that would leave the other guy with a huge advantage. The other obvious thing that will factor into Durant's decision is which of his teammates will still be in OKC after next season. OKC was already $15M over the luxury tax this season and they have Durant, Waiters, Westbrook, Morrow, Adams, Ibaka and Roberson as free agents looking for big pay raises in the next year. OKC isn't going to be willing to pay a $90M luxury tax bill like Prokhorov did, so that means that there's going to have to be some serious salary cutting and some of those players won't be back. OKC could certainly try to add another offensive weapon to prevent Durant from being double teamed, but doing that while also trying to manage costs to best prepare for all of their upcoming free agents will be difficult. Whether Durant stays or leaves, it's a good bet that the Thunder will look very different after next season.
Who are the other stars that Boston is going to put around Durant? Yes, they have assets but can they go out and get two stars? Can they even get 1 star? The one thing that Houston has going for it is Harden. Boston will have a difficult time adding a player as good as Harden to team with Durant. In Houston you'd have Durant, Harden and the ability to sign a third max guy. Who's the draw in Boston? I just don't see Boston being able to go get a top 10 player with their current assets. What star are you thinking is going to be available to the Celtics? I don't think something like Butler and Horford gets it done and I just don't see any of the bigger stars being available. Maybe I'm overlooking someone.
http://espn.go.com/nba/game?gameId=400829032 Rockets actually outplayed the Thunder here- part of the roller coaster season, followed this up with a loss against Dallas, but a win against Cleveland...
Why wouldn't any other star FA that might for whatever reason be considering Houston not also consider Boston? Be it Conley, Horford, Whiteside or whomever. I get that your point is that then you'd only have those 2, plus the Celtics supporting cast, versus in Houston where you'd have those 2, plus Harden. But Boston has other things going for it: 1. Coaching. In the most wildly optimistic scenario, MDA is maybe equal to Stevens as a coach in today's NBA. In the more likely scenario Stevens is the better coach. 2. Other assets. Maybe they can't turn that 3rd pick into anything meaningful. But i think it's possible, principally because its not just that pick. A package of 2016 #3, 2016 #16, 2017 Celtics pick which would actually be the Nets pick as they have the right to swap, 2018 Nets pick (which they get outright), 2018 Grizzlies pick (top 12 protected) should get them something relatively valuable. A star? maybe not. But a really good player. Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler, Brook Lopez (funny if the Nets trade Lopez effectively to get their picks back, but it would make sense for them now), Melo (??), Noel or Okafor, DMC... 3. The East. maybe this should be factor #1. Even if they just picked up great role players and not anyone with all-star potential, its still a squad that competes for East championships every year for 5 years, with tons of other assets. Its just an easier path, as every year for the past decade+ has proven out. 4. Boston. This might end up being a negative depending on KD's personality and desires, but apples to apples, Boston is a better sports town that puts him closer to ESPN, media, etc. and more endorsements. While I don't put much credence in the media bias against Houston as a whole... I do put some credence in it. Houston is disrespected. Boston is loved... or hated because its loved.
Just by virtue of being in the East, he's going to have a great road to the Finals every year. Boston has some great pieces but needs a star next to KD. They can get that down the road or via trade with their war chest of assets. They have three great defenders in Smart, Bradley, and Crowder. They have capable bigs in Johnson and Sullinger. Not all those players will be there if they swing for another star. But the pieces are by and large in place for them to recreate another superteam.
Regarding Boston and Houston's chances at recruiting Durant. First, at this point I think KD stays, at least for 1 more year. Let's make that clear. But that said...IF he was looking to leave and was looking at Boston & Houston.... the "bird in a hand" aspect of Houston "already having a star in Harden" is more appealing to Durant than "Boston's potential ability to obtain a star via assets." And Houston's ability to get a 3rd star (with KD/Harden in hand) is easier than Boston attempting to obtain KD+ another star with their asset package. Look, the asset package is nice and is flexible, but having the star, IN HAND, with Harden is a huge advantage. And then there is the kicker that Harden and Durant are close friends.
The question on point 2 is: "which players will be available for trade?" (among top players) Cousins is not available, they don't want to trade him, especially now with Joerger. Melo maybe is available, but he cannot play with Durant (and Horford). Butler may become available if the Bulls are going to rebuild. I don't see other big names being available...maybe Love of the Cavs are going to lose with the Warriors and Lebron asks to trade him... Again, Ainge has more picks than anyone, but i think a rebuilding team will always take Okafor/Russell ahead of a couple of future picks. Just saying but, the Lakers can potentially throw them Randle, Ingram and Clarkson, how do you think Ainge can beat this offer? He just cannot. Okafor, Stauskas, Saric? Same. Booker, Warren, Len?
Exactly. They know each other off the court but also/especially on the court, they know how to play together, they don't need to work on chemistry or look if/how they can play together. This is also a plus to consider imo.
I don't disagree with what you say... EXCEPT the fact that being in the East is a better bird in the hand than already having Harden, if he's looking at his resume for his legacy. Harden + KD + any of the other top free agents this year (Conley, Horford, Whiteside, whatever) is still a 50/50 to make it out of the second round, just as the Thunder were underdogs this year in the second round. Which certainly doesn't mean it would be impossible for that combo plus solid role players to win one or more rings. Just that its STILL a crapshoot. GSW will continue to dominate. Spurs will continue to dominate. LAC will continue to be VERY relevant. Nothings a given... BUT, if I'm a Vegas oddsmaker, the odds of KD+other top FA this year+Boston's current group+Boston's other assets turning into something (whatever that is) has higher odds of making the Finals, IMO, then Harden+KD+top FA, etc.
It's about stars teaming up. My opinion is that guys like Butler and Lopez aren't going to be the star power that would be required to get Durant to leave OKC. To entice Durant to leave OKC I believe it will take another major talent and those guys are really hard to acquire because teams don't give them up unless forced to. Having assets is great but we here in Houston know all too well how hard it is to turn those assets into a star. You certainly have to have the assets but you also need things to break right for you. There's just not any real stars available and opportunities like the Harden trade just don't come along that often. Bottom line is that I don't believe that the possibility of acquiring a star later is going to get you Durant. Likewise, I don't think a couple of really good but not great players will do it either. Regardless, I fully expect Durant to stay in OKC another year to maximize his earnings and to be able to see what OKC is going to do with the roster in the next year. It's the smart thing to do.
yes, i got you, and agree. It is very unclear what the Celtics horde of draft pick assets could return. But its a VERY NICE horde, and that has value, if not to turn into something immediately, then to turn into something in the near future. Regarding Butler, i still don't think he's worth the #1 or #2 pick in this draft if you're the Sixers or Lakers... Certainly not #1 because I think you just have to bet on the upside of Simmons over Butler. I can see someone arguing that Butler's ability to defend might convince the Sixers, with their unbalanced roster, to make that move. Except its still hard to see that team being relevant in the next few years, by which point Butler is nearing or at 30, and perhaps tired of his run in Philly as well. They're not ready to compete yet. Butler had better supporting cast in Chicago and missed the playoffs. As in vogue as it is to crush Harden and his defense, he at least leads his team to the playoffs over and over again.
I think by hiring D'Antoni, the Rockets might have dimmed their chances of signing Durant. I would instead advise him to sign with the Knicks.
Where I differ is that I don't believe that Durant is just looking for an easier road to the Finals. He's looking to win a championship. It's not about dodging the Western Conference teams, it's about beating them. Superstars are usually pretty confident. If Durant leaves OKC it's going to be to go somewhere that he thinks he can win a title. If he believes Harden and maybe Horford is enough then the fact that it's in the West won't matter. Boston's issue is that they'll have to go get the stars to go next to Durant or he won't sign there. He's not going to sign on the possibility of acquiring another star. The issue will be that it's really hard to do that by this July or even next July (assuming he goes back to OKC for a year). If Boston can do that then they would be in the hunt. Until they do I just don't see any way that Durant goes there. The major difference in our two views is that I believe that it's going to take a top 10-12 type player to land Durant. If you think differently and believe that it would take less then I understand your argument but I can't agree with it.
It's conceivable that Boston can nab a top 15 player with their array of picks and young players and use that to lure KD, no?
