Wow, Correa was in a 1 for 24 slump? Yikes. I know it's been rough, and the strikeouts seem to be so much higher this season. Glad he broke out of it last night for the walk off. Hope this continues. I thought I heard on the radio, that during the losing streak the Astros were batting .144
I think the metrics show something like a 83% chance of scoring when you have a leadoff triple (goes down to 60% for a leadoff double, and down to 25-40% for a leadoff single). If you extrapolate that out to a bases loaded situation with 0 outs, the run probability only increases to 85% (again, that's merely the probability of scoring at least one run). When you only need one run to win a game... the defense has to try and figure out the easiest ways to get outs, and as has been explained, force outs at any base are easier than tags or needing to make long throws to beat runners. Obviously, its only a viable strategy with the game on the line.
Also, to answer the question of whether or not Kemp should have been bunting in the 10th (with a runner on 1st and 1 out)... run probabilities actually show that your odds of scoring GO DOWN with a runner on 2nd and 2 outs, vs. playing it straight up with a runner on 1st and 1 out. (decreases from 26% to 21%). Of course, taking into account that Kemp is a rookie in his 2nd week of big league ball... with the top of the order to follow him... could change some of those percentages slightly. Then again, Kemp did eventually have a ringing triple that set the tone for the walkoff, so I have no problem with playing that situation straight up.
I'm fully against bunting a runner over with 1 out... regardless of the base he is going to(except for a squeeze play). You're forcing yourself to get a base hit in the next at bat to score the runner. Yes, if he goes to third, the runner could score on a passed ball, but I'm not a fan of putting my money in that basket. Plus, considering how well Kemp makes the pitcher work in his at bats, I like letting him swing away.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“I will whoop your f&$/ing a**…” <a href="https://t.co/zVxqsAXXYw">https://t.co/zVxqsAXXYw</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a></p>— PDS (@PatDStat) <a href="https://twitter.com/PatDStat/status/735292055283326977">May 25, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/Vfdumwl875">pic.twitter.com/Vfdumwl875</a></p>— Calhoun (@linkcalhoun) <a href="https://twitter.com/linkcalhoun/status/735326370633535488">May 25, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
It's maddening when I see a bunt play moving someone over to 2nd base early in the game with an out on the road. Not a fan of that at all.
I'm sure this was covered earlier in the thread but, my gosh: Ken Giles **** looked absolutely nasty last night. He made Machado and Davis look like Little Leaguers. I could hear Machado's "****!" in my living room. That wasn't fair.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here's how the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> will line up for tonight's game. <a href="https://t.co/ES3TqN1G2l">pic.twitter.com/ES3TqN1G2l</a></p>— Houston Astros (@astros) <a href="https://twitter.com/astros/status/735561659553550336">May 25, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
The last 2 games I have been to are last night's walkoff win and Mike Fier's no-hitter last year. I will let y'all know of the next game I attend
I would have tossed Colby as well if he came at me like that after a call. I would have told that Sasquatch mf-er to go back to Siberia!
That lineup should provide a lot of offense and McHugh usually gets run support. Should be a good game tonight.
Not all situations are created equal. And as I alluded to when I first voiced my complaint, you can't just be a slave to "the math" in all situations - you have to allow common sense/flexibility to enter the equation at times, or else the managerial position is almost useless. And as you touched on in the 2nd paragraph, the math may flip the other way in our exact situation anyway. A rookie with blazing speed who would have a shot at reaching base by bunting to boot, in a deficient lineup who can't string together hits, and whose only 3 real threats are following him in the order...gimme one shot at a hit to win the game with a runner in scoring position with springer or altuve over taking a shot at kemp reaching base safely.
I was gonna be ticked if Kemp was not in the lineup today. Fully expected to see Kemp and Correa getting a day off and Moran hitting 5th. Glad I was wrong.
