A Dwight Howard post-up (and, possibly, a Corey Brewer three) are the only two shots on the list that Houston runs plays to get. It's total fantasy to take a shot like a Clint Capela jumper, which is PLAINLY a terrible shot for our offense, and say "let's eliminate that". Clint Capela jumpers don't come from seeking out a Clint Capela jumper, they are the worst case outcome of a play that, on average, is still much better than posting up Howard. Further, you'll note that almost everything on this list involves a mediocre offensive player shooting a two point jump shot, which the Rockets already go out of their way to avoid - but guys still do it. Short of equipping the players with shock collars I don't think there's much more those two point jumpers can be reduced. However, this is certainly a convincing argument to stop playing Corey Brewer.
I think he's suggesting that if you're going to use the same players, then use the player with the most efficent inefficent shot, not just a different inefficent shot.
A lot of bad maths and confusion going on in this thread. First of all, PPS is not the same as PPP. Possession implies more set routine and deliberation, whereas shot can be made unintentionally at the last second of the shot clock. Just because some player have bad shooting percentages at certain spots on the court, that doesn't mean we are consciously making effort for them to take those types of shots. Most of the bad shots you've listed are attempted below or around once per game. Dwight averaged around 4.2 post-up possessions and 8.4 post touches per game, the latter of which he led the entire league. The sheer difference in average attempts suggest we are not actively going after those bad shots, whereas in case of Dwight's post-up we are. And what do you mean by sometimes the defense gives you a post-up? Are they just not guarding Dwight at all? Because that could be the case for some of those bad shots you've mentioned, and the players who were taking them just couldn't knock down in wide open situation, but you can't justify Dwight's post-up unless nobody is defending him in the post, because it's such an inefficient offensive possession for us. Another mistake you've made is you lumped together the average bad shot attempts of every player on our roster, but obviously they do not all get to see the playing time simultaneously in a particular game. In fact, T-Jones, Thorton and Lawson have been out of our rotation for quite a while now, so to include their bad shot attempts and claim that we took total X amounts of bad shots per game for the entire year doesn't make sense. If T-Jones took 1.5 bad shots per game in a span of 30 games and Ariza took 2 bad shots per game while playing all 82 games, then you would conclude that they both took 3.5 bad shots per every game we played this season, which is not the case at all.
The question is how many extra shots would it take to make him happy? Is it one or two? More? Dwight may have been unhappy and wanted more touches but that's not the sole reason for his decline in play on both ends of the floor. He's just not the same player physically. He's always been very dependent on his athleticism and he can't play the same way now days. Giving Dwight a couple of more shots doesn't get you the Orlando Dwight or anything close to that. McHale's already commented on Dwight's lack of lateral movement. He can still play vertically but he just can't move side to side or change directions quickly. Giving the 2016 Dwight more shots gets you a marginally better Dwight and based on his current abilities that's not worth very many wasted possessions. If you want to believe that Dwight is still great or even very good on the defensive end then you're free to but overall he's very average now days. He can still rebound balls in his area but he just can't move well enough to cover the range that the good centers can. Today's Dwight is a star in terms of name recognition and salary only. Playing-wise he's no longer a star. The whole idea of the "Dwight Howard effect" is over. Catering to a player that use to be a star isn't going to get you much. If you believe that Dwight is still a star then I understand why you'd feel we should try to accommodate him. I guess our primary point of disagreement is the reason for Dwight's poor play. If I'm understanding your points, it seems that you think that he's playing poorly because he's unhappy. My take is that while he may want more shots, he simply doesn't have the athleticism and physical ability anymore. It will be interesting to see what kind of offers Dwight gets in FA.
50 years into the future, Bran Stark will go back in time and accidentally shout POST UP into Dwight's brain.
This analysis - while a good attempt - is deeply flawed. The reason is that time left in the shot clock isn't being taken into account. Notice how infrequently these shots are being taken - .4 shots per game?? The only shots above 1 - is by Harden, Lawson, Jones and Brewer. Lawson and Jones were eliminated from the rotation - so you can't use those. Brewer is a problem - we know that already he can't hit an open 3 and this just confirms it. Harden has to take a lot of shots late in the shot clock, and also get's fouled a lot (I don't think your PPS numbers take free throws into account because I have never seen ft's broken out by the distance a foul had occurred from the basket). The simple fact is - other players may take bad shots for various reasons - shot clock winding down, frustration, the defense unexpectedly forced them too, trying to draw a foul...whatever. But Howard can't use any of those excuses. He wants to take a shot that he simply isn't good at making because he wants to be the next Hakeem or Shaq - something he is delusional about. That's the problem - nothing else.
I agree that's what he's saying but I don't think that makes much sense to do that. The smart thing is to replace the shot with an efficient shot regardless who shoots it.
A bad shot is a bad shot. Not quite sure how you can legitimately make excuses for anyone. If Howard got the ball in the post more, I'm sure there'd be times he'd have to rush a shot to avoid the clock too. But that wouldn't be an excuse for him either.
I believe the Rockets should do their best to manage the players and personalities that they have on their roster. I don't believe Harden is a good leader and defender but the team has to cater to his weaknesses too. Neither guy can do it alone.
Dad knows what he's talking about. Son can go the **** outside if he wants some fresh air instead of taking his stupid feels to his room and pouting like a disengaged little b****. Dwight is unhappy because Dwight isn't a star at basketball anymore. And of course him not being a basketball star anymore is someone else's fault.
Realistically, teams cater to stars. Harden carries our offense almost single-handedly. If Howard were still an elite defender then they may cater more to him. If Harden was suddently just another guy on offense then we wouldn't cater to him either. Regardelss of what you believe they should do, all players in the NBA aren't treated equally. Lebron James gets catered to more than anyone else on the Cavs. Like it or not it's the truth.
Good news for you, then. Dwight isn't gonna be on the Rockets' roster anymore. The Rockets no longer have to cater to his weaknesses, and you can go back to being a Rockets fan first, individual player fan second.
games last season D12 got 15+ shots: FG FT R A B ST PF TO TP Mon 2/29@ MIL 12-19 .632 6-14 .429 13 0 0 0 4 2 30 Wed 2/10@ POR 13-17 .765 2-7 .286 13 2 1 0 1 3 28 Mon 1/18@ LAC 11-16 .688 14-18 .778 26 4 1 1 2 4 36 Sun 1/10vs IND 9-15 .600 3-8 .375 17 3 0 2 3 3 21 Wed 11/11vsBKN 10-16 .625 0-2 .000 17 1 5 0 0 1 20 looks pretty efficient on nights he got his most shots... the turnovers are a negative...
I made this point early last season when it was obvious that Harden was freezing out Dwight. Except there is a caveat here. We didn't have to give Dwight more post-ups. All we had to do was throw the ball to him in scoring position. That's all. Anybody who is truly objective could watch the games and see anywhere from 5 to 10 opportunities a game where Dwight was open after sealing his man under, or going back door, or just left unaccounted for by the defense as they attacked Harden. Harden simply wouldn't give him the basketball. They went through a stretch where they'd try to run plays for Dwight at the beginning of the game but if you watched those plays you could see that Harden wasn't really trying to make it work. It was half-hearted effort by James to make it work. So the opportunities were there to get Dwight touches and more importantly finishes without changing anything in the offense. And God forbid we run pick and pop with James and DMo with Dwight on the baseline weakside where he could slide to the rim and seal his man if the ball went out high to DMo so that DMo could hit him with the pocket pass. Not to mention our starting small forward may be the worst passing 3 man in the entire association. Trevor is so bad at passing that you don't want him getting the opportunity to throw the ball. And as a result he mostly just threw the ball back out high to Harden, which is exactly what Harden wanted since, you know, "everybody else is role players." Does anybody remember the good old days of multiple playmakers and actually having Dwight incorporated into the offense? That was the best offensive team we had in the Dwight era and if we hadn't kept trying to make Terrence something he wasn't we'd have beaten Portland and no telling where we'd gone. Watch this. http://youtu.beNK9s6ZFflRs
I don't believe that it was meant as an excuse. I think that he was just pointing out that most of the shots that you cited were likely taken late in the shot clock. Those weren't shots that we planned to take or wanted to take but instead were shots that we were forced to take due to the clock running down. You can't argue to replace those shots with Dwight postups because we never intended to take those shots to begin with. Dwight's postups are planned shots and they are inefficient. Regardless of how many shots Dwight gets, you're still going to have those few bad shots per game when we're trying to beat the shot clock.
At that point I'll have to make another "In Defense of..." post for the next guy that joins Harden and his production drops. He has quite a list growing now.
how many of those points were from Dwight posting up? Dwight scroes a lot of points thorugh lobs and putback dunks, that doesn't mean we should give him more offesnive possesions.
Planned or not, bad shots due to this, or due to that, happen to everyone not just the perimeter players and are already baked into the numbers.
Again your numbers aren't even sourced. So you aren't even including free throws in there where a guy like Harden might be drawing fouls (most of which occur 5-10 feet). Howard is inefficient from the post. Why would you throw it in to him for that? Why would you play to take a bad shot? Why are you excusing Howard's bad shots? So just because other players occasionally take a bad shot, and if you add them all up they maybe 10 shots a game, you are saying let Howard have 10 bad shots a game as well? Makes no sense to me.
