Curious what my fellow Stros fans feel. What do you think his ceiling will be? I am thinking Hunter Pence. What say you?
If healthy he's already better than Hunter Pence. Last seaon he posted a WAR of 3.8 in only 102 games. Hunter Pence's career high is 3.9. His ceiling is one of the best players in the game. After his improved rates last year, I think Springer is very capable of posting a .280/.375/.475 type line. Optimistically I don't think a .300/.400/.500 is out of the question. To go along with a great defense, and great speed on the base paths. His combination of strike zone recognition (he strikes out a lot, but he usually swings at strikes), speed and power is extremely rare. He's off to a slow start, looks a little jumpy, but he'll calm down. He just needs to stay healthy.
better than that, offensively and defensively (better range). Though Pence has had longevity, consistency, and health (aside from last year)--which are difficult things to predict and attain for anyone.
Skill-wise: Eric Davis in the late 80's. Great speed, power and glove. Will strike out a bunch, never hit for a really high average, but will draw enough walks to maintain a very good OBP.
Is Springer more valuable to this team as a leadoff guy? Last year when he was batting first, I saw a tamed swing going for base hits. I like that Springer much more than the Cargo impressions he has been supplying thus far.
bWAR high is 5.6 (2011). fWAR high is 5.5 (2013). That said, I expect Springer will have a similar career. Maybe better, maybe worse...but in the same ballpark. Ceiling is probably about an 8 WAR player.
I think his ceiling would be different than Pence. He's more athletic. More speed and raw power. A bit less of a hit tool. Player comps are hard, but maybe Curtis Granderson? Largely dependent upon BABIP, some years an MVP candidate, some years just a solid starting OF.
It is out of the question when he takes hacks like he has this season. He needs to tone it down to 75% and let the barrel do the talking. His down to one knee swings are ugly, and only Tuck can pull that off.
I just did a quick check on BBR, that's one of the larger disparities I've seen between the 2 sites. Still, at this point if Springer stays healthy, I think a Hunter Pence like career is his floor. One of the reasons I'm so high on Springer is his plate discipline. Since 2014, his outside the zone swing rate is 24th out of 236 players (min 700 PA). He doesn't chase bad pitches. He swings through a lot of strikes for some reason, but pitchers have to come into the zone. And with his speed/power combo I think he's gonna put up huge numbers. He's forcing the issue a little right now, but he'll come around.
His absolute ceiling is Mike Trout-esque, but is a far more likely outcome. I really like what Springer was doing last year at the plate. Probably sacrificing some power to get on base more.
Geez, what happened to this guy? I felt like he completely fell off the face off the earth. As far as Springer is concerned, I just hope he stays healthy. Anything else is a plus for me.
Huh? The guy had 10 productive seasons and then 5 semi-productive ones across multiple teams. 15 seasons in the bigs is far from "falling off the face of the earth"
Andruw Jones had 67 WAR over his career and is a borderline hall of famer. That'd be a tremendous outcome for Springer but it's not far fetched.
