538 has Hillary winning NY, Maryland and Pennsylvania by 95% plus odds TODAY. Let's see how those odds change as we get closer to election day and compared to actual results. Are Bernie's voters under sampled in current polls?
No. Give it up. Anyway, after the NY Daily News interview where he couldn't articulate answers for many of his sacred cow talking points (reeeeally put his foot in it), he should enjoy these states and "momentum". Because it'll be done soon.
I agree that the demographic makeups are not good Bernie going forward, but this analysis carries with it two implications that are fundamentally wrong: 1. This is a static campaign and thus dynamic changes in demographic preferences are not possible. -Bernie did lose handily among the southern blacks and to a certain extent has lost among northern blacks. However, he has progressively made cuts to these deficits as the race has gone on. Look at Michigan vs the rest of the South. Also, looking at Black votes among Ballot day exit polls reflects a much closer race. Early votes are what has screwed him. -He has won diverse electorates in Hawaii and Alaska, so it's not like his message is white specific. -If there is one indisputable trend in this elections, it is that Sanders' support has increased as the race has gone and Clinton's has decreased. -Look at the crowd that showed up in the Bronx, were all of them white? 2. Bernie's message is not white-centric, it is economic-centric and thus its appeal is theoretically limitless -Bernie's message is "viral" and thus its spread is exponential, there is a reason he owns the internet. -Everything depends on the ground operations taking place in these battleground states. He has consistently closed gaps in states that given him ample time to campaign in. There is an entire week and a half before the New York primary, and the deficit is only ten points. Now, I'm not saying 538 makes these errors, it's the people that read their analyses that start assuming things. Bernie Sanders has momentum by virtue of these recent string of wins. the more he wins, the more people feel that they should at least listen to his ideas and not dismiss him (primarily older people, who do not get political information outside the MSM). His message is powerful and his integrity, trustworthiness, and honesty are Magnets that scoop up supporters left and right. He beats Hillary not only on policy but on his ability to sell himself. Make no mistake, he is the underdog, but he is going against one of the most unrelatable and scandal-driven candidates in recent memory and to top it off, he's got money coming out of his a** at every turn. The conditions are very ripe for history to be made. All of this leads to me to New York. If he wins there......watch out. The media narrative may finally shift against Hillary, and that would mean the loss of her final and only strength. Once her ability to win is questioned, what does she really have left? The supers will NOT support a candidate that is scandal-plagued, unrelatable, and unable to win.
They have been so far and 538 has been off on several states they've called Clinton winning. He's surging in Penn. polls and I think with the Brooklyn debate coming up he's got a real chance. Clinton's new smear campaign blaming Sanders for Sandy Hook has been really backfiring on Twitter. Lots of people on her side are claiming they are going for Sanders now as is the same w/ people on the fence. She's running a really terrible campaign down the stretch in areas of the country Sanders has been crushing her in.
Hillary Clinton has been wrong in almost all major decisions concerning this country for the past 25 years: the Iraq war, Nafta, TTP, the crime bill of 1996, etc... Those are all positions she took which put in question her judgment as commander in chief. This lack of proper judgment is a consequence of bending to the political winds rather than being smart. Hillary is very smart, and also very wrong on many decisions and beliefs.
This makes no sense. The only concrete consequences of this election are controlling the Supreme Court nominees and vetoing bogus legislation. The differences in electing a Democrat, any Democrat, over a Republican are huge.
https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersFor...to_response_to_anyone_questioning_whether_or/ (google-able videos) Bernie predicts 2008 depression quotes: :53-1:00, Bernie warns against regime change and predicts extremism like ISIS and the escalation of Israel/Palestine conflict Bernie speaks against the Panama Free Trade agreement, predicting the whole Panama Papers incident Bernie opposing the Iraq war Bernie tells Alan Greenspan he's ruining the middle class in 2003 Greenspan admits his faults in 2008 Bernie speaks against the Patriot Act, good part starts at 2:18 Bernie speaks about voter suppression Bernie advocates single payer in 1993 Bernie speaks for 8.5 hours filibustering the extenstion of the Bush tax cuts Bernie on DADT and gay slurs in 1995, as well as some environmental stuff, probably my favorite clip so far, you can see his passion and righteous anger Bernie against the Crime Prevention Bill 1991 Bernie on military spending and investing in American industry, basically the 92 version of his stump speech Bernie opposing the Gulf War Bernie as Mayor of Burlington giving his stump speech in 1988, advocating a third party with the working class, minorities, women, etc., wanting a president to speak and understand the average person Bernie opposes the repeal of Glass Steagall, and therefore the deregulation of Wall Street, predicting the 2008 crash, in 1999 Bernie on NAFTA. Quotes: :23-:36, 1:06-1:24 Bernie on working conditions in Florida and slavery in America, 2008
Some people just see this like a sporting event. No concern for policy, just names and personalities to root for or against.
I want a video of something other than a prescient speech, I guess. Where did he win people over and change something? But yeah, on how the middle class have been destroyed, he is definitely an expert, and I respect that, a lot. I wish he could have stopped some of it.
It's more than that. People tend to discount the power of the presidency. It should be clear to everyone how much difference the President can make through foreign policy, executive orders and the military. Since WWII the power of the Presidency has been increasing and no president of either party seems willing to reduce that.
People make mistakes. Hillary, otoh, might as well have flipped a damn coin on hers, and perhaps gotten 50% correct on them.
Pretty hard to do as an Independent populist from Vermont. He would have no party perks or campaign monies to offer for the support of his legislation as is the SOP for Washington. And, every type of power broker would be opposed to anything he might want to get done.
Hillary is personally very qualified and accomplished, but is merely the president to lead the country toward the slightly progressive wing of the status quo. Most in the country think this is not good enough. Just like Obama will be known only as the first African American President, Hillary unless pushed very severely will be known only as the first woman president. Hillary and Bill and largely Obama have been losing for the 99% while "winning" by always being a bit better than the Repubs as the GOP moves totally for the 1%. Bernie is a slap in their face as he shows the tremendous hunger and also the potential support available to the Dems if they take the lead instead of just being the junior Wall Street Party.
Illiberal logic. When you try too hard to be liberal and in effect you are being liberal for the sake of being liberal.
