I think value is a relative to what worth a team places on said player. To the Astros, they paid for 2015 closer Giles, not the 7th rounder he was drafted as. They are counting on Giles to be a high-strike out shut down reliever, whether that happens in the 8th or the 9th. Having said that, they are going to ease him into the role rather than hand it to him outright and disrupt any clubhouse dynamics with Gregerson. I think next year, Giles will have the closer role barring a complete collapse. Basically, I see four scenarios for this year: 1) Gregerson underwhelms/falters, Giles takes the Closer role. Gregerson to 8th. 2) Gregerson does really good/passable, Giles struggles or does just ok. Roles stay the same. 3) Gregerson does awesome, Giles is awesome. Keep their roles the same..everyone wins. Gregerson knows his job is in jeopardy, steps it up all season. Giles locks down the 8th inning. Astros are only better. 4) Gregerson gets injured goes on DL. Giles takes over, proves himself, keeps the closer role when Gregerson returns.
To me, clubhouse dynamics is overrated in managerial decisions such as this. Giles is not some unproven prospect. Really, if the team is winning, none of that really matters as much. I think Giles has the higher ceiling, better K stuff, and I figured he was acquired to be the closer based on giving up said value for a guy who was closing last year. If they made a move for him last year, when he was a set up man, don't you agree the asking price would be less? Anyways, it's a great problem to have provided Luke doesn't have regression. I do hope there are just too many save opportunities for just one guy to handle. That would be tremendous.
I hear what you are saying and I agree they acquired him to be the closer for the next 5 years, based on what they gave up for him. And honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Luhnow/Hinch have a plan to 'ease' him into the role over the next couple of months. To me its a win-win: Gregerson keeps his job because he did nothing to outright lose it (or Giles to win in in ST), and it does keep the clubhouse in a steady-state...I DO think clubhouse dynamics matter (just ask the Rockets). If you have a disgruntled player, it can really affect others around him including their performance on the mound. I have no doubt Giles will be the closer at some point this season, and if he's not, then in all likelihood Gregerson is pitching lights out and that WOULD be a great problem to have. Giles not being named the opening day closer does not mean the Astros made a mistake giving up 5-2 in the trade. I think they are taking the long-view here and as long as everyone performs, no harm will be done.
I see what you're saying... but Giles is not a prospect or even a rookie. He's been a full-time reliever for 2 years now, being a full-time closer for a quarter of that. By contrast, Billy Wagner and Brad Lidge had far less experience when being given the job. I wouldn't have considered it rushed to give him the job... I don't think he needs to be eased into anything at this point. I also am not expecting Gregerson to be pitching lights out as a closer... and if any pitcher may get "better" with a chip on his shoulder, it may be him... hence, Finally, baseball is such an individual sport... far more so than basketball. In the end, clubhouses are happy with wins... and pissed off with losses... regardless of dynamics or individual unhappiness. I just wish this damn season would start already!!!
Guys, this is great for us. Hinch not giving out defined roles allows him the opportunity to use Giles in the most high leverage situation every game... never understood why people are so obsessed about a closer. Getting out the 3-4-5 hitters in an 8th inning one run lead is harder to do than the 9th inning 6-7-8.
That's true. But in contrast, do you imagine Hinch bringing in Gregerson in the 8th to face 7-8-9 in order to save Giles for the top of the order in the 9th? I'd imagine, based on what he's said so far, he would still use Giles in the low leverage 8th (assuming both are rested).
Of course they matter. This is the same sport where players groused about a rookie using the MMP mound, or whatever; a sport governed by silly unwritten rules. And that's due, in large part, because baseball players spend far more time hanging out than they do actually playing; even during a game, they spend half of it in the dugout. And relievers spend, generally, 70-80+% of any given game shooting the ****. You don't want a disgruntled veteran - especially on a young team - making waves; it can be disruptive. I thought Hinch handled it perfectly.
I'm not 100% sure the front office would agree with you I think they value clubhouse dynamics quite a bit. Now you are right, as long as the team is winning it doesn't matter so much. But if Gregerson is really popular in the clubhouse (I couldn't tell you if he is or isn't) that is something that our front office seems to value quite a bit As for the makeup of the pen, it's not nearly as relevant who pitches the 8th and who pitches the 9th as most think. If you shut down both of those innings, your odds of winning a lot of games goes up tremendously. As for the price we paid to get him, it was a high price because of how long we control him. They didn't give up all of that because he could lock down the 9th inning in April and May of 2016, they paid the price because he can be a dominant late inning reliever for years to come, and grow with all of the other guys of his age we currently have
I agree with this pretty much 100% Now if at some point Giles is clearly getting better results than Gregerson, it will be easy to have them swap roles and the rest of the clubhouse will be able to look at the results and know it was warranted. Luke has spent a good part of his career as a set up guy, so it isn't like he can't be great in that role, but he made it clear he expected to close, and I think Hinch has made the right decision AJ catches a lot of crap for his in-game decisions....but even for those who don't like the way he handles a game, you have to admit he has been brilliant at handling the clubhouse and the youth of this team
heard on the radio this morning that Giles gave up runs in 8 out of 9 appearances in spring training for the Phils last year and then went on to 1.80 ERA... just saying, some guys just don't turn it on until realtime game situations
It matters... but baseball is still largely an individual sport. There have been examples of teams that had players who flat-out hated one another... yet they were able to win games because of the nature of the game allows just that. You're not worried about certain players not passing the ball to each other... or how each other's game complements the other player. Additionally, this team is so young... it really doesn't know any better. Would be highly surprising if just one move like this led to some total clubhouse mutiny. Pretty sure most of the players are still just happy to be there (which is a part of why they're so successful so early). Agreed... that's never been debated. On acquisition of Giles (along with the attempted acquisitions of Chapman and Kimbrel last year), the goal was to find somebody better for the 9th. They may still very well feel that Giles is still better for the 9th.... but I understand why Hinch may not be fully comfortable with Giles just yet. I just doubt the price would have been high if they tried to trade for him last year. It was higher because he proved he could close... AND he had the club control aspect. I just see a lot of people having doubts about his ability to close at all right now... (he's young, ease him in, needs to grow into the role... etc.etc.), whereas he has shown just that ability in a pretty decent sample size (not that much less than Gregerson, who was a first-time full-time closer last year). And if you want to expand his sample size to include the set-up man time... there's even more skins on the wall.
But Hinch is doing just that by announcing who the closer is. These guys want an assigned role... I'm sure the analytical approach the front office covets would probably suggest that bullpen by committees would be more effective on paper... but in reality, these guys perform better (or so they say) when they know exactly what their role is game-in/game-out.
Excellent post! I think it's a great call by upper management to let Giles sit and earn the closing spot. Nothing in life should ever be handed to you. Either way we have a great set up man going into the season.
