Hey CXbby, I'm a little confused on the $7500 credit. Seems like it'll be hard to be one of the first 200k people to reserve it - if pre ordering online? Does that mean we would at least qualify for the 50% tax credit? Because if I'm getting the $2500 CA credit, then that wouldn't be *too* bad for me. Also- is a credit card needed? I don't use credit card, only debit. Because if so, I'm screwed.
It's not the first 200k to reserve, its 200k delivered in the US over the lifetime of the manufacturer. Although as I speculated earlier, this may not matter soon if Tesla decides to raise a ton of money after seeing this demand to ramp up production significantly. And yes there is a 6 month window with 50% of the federal credit($3,750). Yes people are ordering with credit card. I'm not sure if you can order with a debit card, you can try.(I'd imagine you could also use Paypal - Elon is the cofounder afterall)
Thanks man. If you had to forecast it, do you think the chances are slim of getting the tax credit if one pre orders tonight?
He's said that the odds are looking better. Doesn't hurt to try. I'll cancel if I find out later that I won't be getting it.
I don't get why only Elon Musk was able to grasp this concept. What if we took a hybrid/electric and made people....want it for more than it's gas savings?
It is because traditional car makers can't do this. They are stuck in a catch 22. They have just spent 100s of billions of dollars over the past 100 years to research and develop the Internal Combustion Engine(and the iterative model years that have followed). This investment requires amortization through continued sales of what they've developed. This is a safe and proven business. In order to develop a compelling Electric Vehicle, they would need to pour billions more into research and development - a huge risk that may or may not be accepted by the market. And even in the best case where it is a smashing success, each EV they sell cannibalizes 1 gasoline car that they could have sold. Eating into the business that they are currently 100% reliant upon. Making cars is not like making Iphones or electronic devices. It is a huge industrial endeavor that requires enormous capital costs. They cannot simply scale down the gasoline cars and quickly replace them with EVs. Instead, what would happen would be devastating idle capacity for their gas car division and a failure to ramp up quickly enough in EVs to make up for it. It cannot work. And even if it could work, it is way too much risk for these corporations who are only focused on near term profit to take on. Again, even if successful - what would it be for? To sell a ton of cars and make money? Well they can already do that right now without changing a thing. Environmental and geopolitical benefit? Weaning human civilization off a limited supply of fossil fuel - because even if Climate Change was GOOD for humanity, we would still eventually run out of fuel - and thus solving an existential threat? HAH! By the time any of that comes into play, these CEOs will already be retired and sipping their drink on a beach, or dead. Decisions are made based on short term profitability, period. This is why the vast majority of EVs made today are compliance cars made to fail. They only exist to satisfy emissions regulations so that manufacturers are allowed to sell more highly profitable trucks and SUVs. EVs are ugly and slow because it would be a problem for manufacturers if they actually succeeded. And in order to make them high performance and affordable, you would actually have to invest a ton of money to advance battery technology and lower costs. Something they are not willing to do. The difference with Elon and Tesla is that they are untethered by these legacy road blocks, so they are allowed to make the best EV they can make. Which as it turns out, makes a better car - period. This may prove to be an existential threat to traditional automakers if they donot act quickly. That may finally be enough risk for them to start making compelling EVs. But by then, Tesla will be by far the leader and an aspirational brand.
@CXbby - you seem to be the guru here. I got my reservation at ~1pm PST (3hrs after they opened) in NorCal. Did I dun goof or do you think I'll get dat dere 7500 credit?
CA will be the first to receive the car once production begins. I think you have a good chance to receive it, and definitely the 50% credit in the 6 months following expiration. Again, I think all questions regarding tax credit needs to be held off until we find out what Tesla plans to do going forward. At this rate, they may have 1 million reservations on hand by the time production begins in 2 years. IMO, there is no way Tesla lets that happen and still plan on producing roughly 120k cars in 2017 and 180k cars in 2018. That means new buyers would have to wait YEARS to get their car. No way this happens. My prediction is after seeing this demand, they will raise money and build multiple new factories - in Europe and China. This will allow them to ramp up production much sooner, and in the 3 month period after 200k expiration they will be able to potentially produce a ton of cars, hopefully covering most of early reservation holders. Having too much demand is a GREAT problem to have. They will not be raising money because they can't pay the bills or because they lose X amount of money per car like the financial media likes to portray. They will be raising money because they can't build the cars fast enough for people to buy. Wall st will HAPPILY throw money at Elon's feet for that.
Elon going on twitter to emphasize you can only preorder two per person. Insanity. Were people trying to order 10? Although, Uber CEO did once say if Tesla can produce 500k cars in 2020, he would buy them all. Maybe he was in line today.
Will current gasoline car makers become like Palm, blackberry and windows mobile? Wait around to see if people will adopt electric cars...and then scramble to make something decent.
That is quite the claim. No doubt some are doing this. But most? Looking forward to the 100k first day preorders for the Chevy Bolt and Nissan Leaf, who both qualify for the same tax credit. Also amazing that people around the WORLD are lining up to take advantage of the US Federal tax credit.
Cool, I can deal with 50%. I thought $35K was a decent deal before I even knew about the credits. Anyways, for a no-risk $1000, this is at least entertaining. Can't wait for the reveal at 8:30... hope it's not some cawk-tease that leaves us hanging!
How can one receive the tax credit? Too late now? Is there a time frame to cancel your preorder? And when are these cars suppose to ship? Sorry if all these have been asked before.
Considering electric cars have come and gone for over 100 years, I'm guessing the same things that stopped them from eventually dominating back in the 1800's and early 1900's are stopping them now... range and price. I'd get one as a primary car if I could get something like 350-400 mile range. I'm curious to see how this one does, though. It's a step in the right direction. I really want autonomous cars next, but that's probably going to take a while.
You receive the tax credit as a tax write off when your taxes are due.(you need to owe that much to Uncle Sam first to be eligible, otherwise you can only write off how much you owe) You can cancel your preorder up until you fully configure your car and they ask you to pay in full. This happens a few months before production begins. They are supposed to start shipping late 2017.
