Current odds at Westgate SuperBook: <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NBA proposition<br><br>Golden St Warriors win 73 or more games in 2015-16 regular season?<br>Yes -275<br>No +235</p>— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) <a href="https://twitter.com/golfodds/status/712873890335367174">March 24, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Although I got my money on 73 wins or more, I personally think it's 50-50 at this point in the season.
looks like conley won't be Mike Conley (Achilles) is not expected to be re-evaluated until after the end of the regular season.
66-7 with 9 games left: WAS @UTH BOS POR MIN SAS @MEM @SAS MEM The only one left they have a good chance of losing is @SAS. For their home game against the Spurs (which is on TNT), I expect Pop to rest half his team as he did last night at OKC. If the Spurs are still undefeated at home, Pop will try to win that next-to-last game. That will also be the 2nd game of a back-to-back for the Warriors. Wouldn't shock me if Kerr rested his best players. 74-8 anyone?
I don't think "rest" is the right word for OKC and GSW matchups. Rather, I think the plan is to withhold strategy from them, to make the game useless for later game-planning in the playoffs. ie., he doesn't want to tip his hand...or give the opps any forum for testing themselves...or sense of accomplishment
Yeah, now that the Spurs is practically out of reach from the top seed, they aren't going to play their full strength the rest of the way. I wouldn't be surprised if they lose their home game against the Warriors. The only motivation they have to win that game is if they want to achieve a perfect home record. I am not sure if Pop cares about this kind of thing.
He chose to show his first hand, cos that game was a must-win to recover their morale from the previous blow-out loss. That's why the first blow out was so valuable, it forced Spurs to show one hand. We can only assume pop has 2nd or 3rd hands up his sleeve. He simply burnt his first one for a regular season win instead of a playoff win. But it was that important. It may not be as important in the next @spurs, we'll see. Dubs going for 73+ is surely a bigger motivator than Spurs going 41-0. We see that even 76ers can keep it close with the dubs in their semi-coasting mode. So it might be worth it for pop to go with the bench.
Maybe, but I think this whole notion of 'showing hands' is vastly overrated. You are who you are. The biggest adjustment made last postseason was when the Warriors benched Bogut to start Iguodala in the Finals. They didn't keep that idea as an ace up their sleeves, it was suggested by a low level assistant the day before the game.
You are describing exactly what I mean by showing hands. I make one move, you'd make the first adjustment. Then I will have to counter that adjustment, but can I succeed? If so, you'd have to make another adjustment to counter my counter and so on. That's how some series tend to have teams take turns winning. If it takes two game to successfully counter one move, then that one move just gained a huge advantage by taking two games in a 7 game series. Or you are who you are and simply have no way to counter. However, say if a bad coach is on the dubs and failed to adjust the rotation and stubbornly used bogut the same way, then the dubs might have a harder series to play because the coach did not recognize the advantage in maximizing iggy. The Spurs win allowed curry & co to get used to that type of big switching defense on the perimeter. Hence Curry struggled at first but still found a relative groove towards the end. In the next game, he will be confident and prepared facing this type of defense again.
they play the spurs and grizzlies twice, BOS and POR have a chance too. not sure how this schedule is 'easy'
Uhm wut? Most teams are Play off teams except the timberwolves and wizards (and they are still in the race!).
memphis doesn't really count as a playoff team right now. The roster they have to play with at the moment is bottom level.
I agree with you. And what people overlook when they marvel that Popovich is being clever in "not showing adjustments" is that Popovich is also losing his opportunities to try adjustments and see what works. Maybe he has some ideas to toss against Golden State, but he doesn't know if they'll work til he tries them. If he tries them first in the playoffs and they don't work...then he's the one who's screwed and forced to scramble to figure things out in time. In the end, I think Popovich isn't trying to withhold information...his "contempt for the regular season" manifests by him resting players more than most teams do (though even that is a concession to how old his best players--Leonard aside--are...he wasn't so aggressive a rester in the 2000s when Duncan was young). Even in the first game, that Golden State won in a rout, Popovich was trying all sorts of different defenses against Curry.
I'm talking about the remaining games, if he indeed "rests" his players, it will be for strategy reasons vs actual rest. He needed to test his defensive strategy that last game. I largely agree. I'm just making a point that Pops does choose to withhold players. It's usually not about "rest" vs strategy reasons. And you're stuck on the "tip his hand" terminology. My main point is not about NFL strategy, but about not giving the opponents an opportunity to test themselves against your game plan, mainly defensive strategy. They could know from video what you are likely to do and plan for that, but it is not the same as actually playing against it. It doesn't give the opp a chance to discover a weakness in their own team, that they can correct for later. That appears to be what Pops did to OKC recently and Miami in previous years and might do vs GSW. Curious thing is, Kerr is the one who didn't play his normal team last game, by not playing Iggy or either Center.
