Looks like Trump will avoid the knockout blow of losing Ohio and Florida, but if this leads to Rubio dropping out and gets to be a 3 man race, that might be just as bad for Trump. He's not expanding his 30-40% of the vote numbers and he'll need something like 55% of all remaining delegates to get to the magic number.....he knows that there is 0 chance that he walks out of a contested convention as the nominee so that's good news for the country.
Does anyone think the GOP would risk the record numbers Trump has been bringing out? Seriously, the Republicans are looking at a super-majority in the HoR, and everyone's response is denial-ridden logic?
Trump has "brought out" those numbers to vote against him, not for him. Hillary Clinton has brought out more people to vote for her than Trump has. Over 7.6 million people have voted for anti-Trump candidates in the GOP primaries. Honestly Republicans know that if Trump is their nominee, they lose the House, probably lose the Senate, and absolutely lose the presidency. Sure Trump has something like 30% of the Republican party that support him, but the VAST majority of the Republican party is against him and basically all of the non Republican conservatives, moderates, and liberals are against him. He'd get beat worse than Walter Mondale in a national election.
The only possible "knockout blow" Tuesday is Trump winning both Ohio and Florida. If that happens, it's over. If Trump has a strong lead (maybe any lead) in delegates at a contested convention and the party conspires against him, Trump and his supporters will explode. Trump has a good chance of emerging from a contested convention if he's just short of the finish line.
Yeah that's what I was referring to. As to Trump supporters, they are irrelevant, in a contested convention, there's no chance Trump comes out as the nominee. An estimated 1/3rd of his delegates would vote for another candidate on a second ballot.
Misinformation breeds idiots. A lot of these protesters are far left liberals who are easily manipulated by the media. Why are BLM protesting in Trump rallies? Trump policies will help the black communities but of course they don't know about that.
It's just whispers I've heard. We'll see if it ends up being true. The delegates have to vote for who they are pledged for on the first ballot, but they can do whatever they want on a 2nd ballot.
Trump said he is the best and will get all the jobs back to America. Don't question how, just bow down and let him do it!
I think you greatly overstate how much anyone cares about the 30% of Trump supporters. Also, a Trump nomination would be pretty much the only way Hillary gets to cake walk to the presidency. The absolute worst thing the Republican party could do would be allowing Trump to be their nominee. If they do that, he'll be their last nominee.
Ohio and Florida are getting a whole of attention because they are winner take all and are like 165-170 delegate votes between them. Trump will probably win Florida and lose Ohio. He can be reasonably satisfied with that because Cruz would get zero delegates. What is being overlooked is Illinois and Missouri. Illinois should go for Trump, and if he finishes strong enough there he could be walking with almost all the electoral votes because of districting. I am not sure but I believe Missouri is the same. In that case you have Trump gaining a 165-175 votes to Cruz's 0-10. It wouldn't knock out Cruz but it would mean short of a major scandal Trump would win the necessary delegates. Republicans hoping for a divided RNC are crazy. There already are many life long Republicans with strong conservative values but very little loyalty to the current Republican Party. Having a divided convention resulting in Cruz or Romney being the nominee would upset Republican voters to an unbelievable level. Even non Trump supporters have told me they think whoever has the most delegates should get the nomination and taking it from the top vote getter would result in mutiny.
In hypothetical general election polls, every other GOP candidate polls better against each of the would-be Democratic candidates than Trump does. On the other hand, Bernie polls better against all the would-be GOP candidates than Hillary does. Yet Trump and Hillary are leading their respective parties' primary. Lots of primary voters just don't give a crap about "electability." It's like when both coaches insist on trotting out lineups with horrible +/-.
Not so sure that Ted Cruz would put up much of a fight against Clinton. For as smart and talented as he is, he is an extremist and is very unlikeable. He would do very poorly in many major population centers.
When it comes down to upsetting 30% of the party or destroying the entire party, handing Hillary the presidency, and handing the Democrats the House, Senate, and Supreme Court....it's not a hard decision to make. The more the Trump people are upset, the better it is for the country. Trump supporters are pants on head r****ded and shouldn't be given very much consideration.
Cruz and Sanders, especially have not been attacked like Clinton has. All of the attention and emphasis by the Republicans has been on Clinton and now Trump. At this point Cruz is fairly unknown and Sanders has received little negative press.... That will change assuming they win the nomination.
IMO it would be a toss up if it was Cruz vs Clinton. Sure Cruz has problems when it comes to likability but the candidate with the 2nd worst likability numbers is Clinton who is only behind Trump for the most unlikable candidate in the race. Basically Cruz would give the Republican party a chance to hold on to the House and Senate and have a shot at the presidency. They don't get that chance with Trump.
Yeah.... and a scenario where Trump as the most electoral votes and loses the nomination will not sit well with many Republicans, including those that do not especially like him. There was already a lot of negativity towards Graham, Romney and other Republican insiders "telling" their party members how to vote. Loyalty is at a real low for Republican voters right now.
