Texans sign Brock Osweiler

J.R. · Mar 9, 2016

John Elway had the clout, and track record, to let Brock Osweiler go

It's refreshing in this world of nervous, reactive NFL front offices to see a team operate as fearlessly and successfully as the Denver Broncos have with John Elway as general manager.

Watching projected starting quarterback Brock Osweiler leave for the Houston Texans on the first day of free agency Wednesday was the latest headline-grabbing development reflecting the security Elway enjoys as a Broncos legend with Super Bowl rings on his fingers. It should come as no surprise the Broncos refused to keep their projected starting quarterback at all costs.

Elway cast aside Tim Tebow amid an outcry. Elway fired coach John Fox following four consecutive AFC West titles. Elway forced Peyton Manning into an awkward contract renegotiation, one of several moves informing Manning he was about to live life on the team's terms. Every one of these moves seemed risky from a public-relations standpoint. Every one worked out well for the organization.

The Broncos' decision to bench Osweiler for the playoffs complicated their negotiations with him, but in the end, Denver simply wasn't willing to pay keep-him-off-the-market money for a quarterback who had not played especially well when given an opportunity to start. Denver could be taking less risk than the Texans are taking even though most would regard the Broncos' situation -- no starter on the roster! -- as the ultimate NFL horror.

Osweiler finished the 2015 season with an 86.4 passer rating (25th) and a 59.6 Total QBR score (24th). Texans starter Brian Hoyer was actually better in both categories, but because he bombed in the playoffs against Kansas City, keeping him in place as the starter became politically untenable for Texans leadership. The Texans previously passed up two chances to draft Derek Carr, purportedly because David Carr's struggles as a Texan made selecting Derek Carr politically untenable. Houston previously replaced Ryan Fitzpatrick with Hoyer, a lateral move at best.

Hoyer completed 60.7 percent of his passes with 19 touchdowns and seven picks last season. His passer rating (91.4) and QBR (59.6) were right at the league averages for the NFL's 35 qualifying quarterbacks.

The Texans and Broncos have proven they can win without top-tier quarterback play. Both ranked among the top five in defensive expected points added (EPA). The Texans' defense and soft AFC South schedule has allowed them to finish 9-7 each of the past two seasons. They are surprisingly one of nine teams to post winning records in 2014 and 2015. The Broncos' defense carried Denver to much greater heights in spite of statistically poor-to-average quarterback play.

As noted in another column recently, the Broncos allowed between 10-18 points to their playoff opponents during this past postseason. Just about everyone wins, regardless of the quarterback, when the scoring bar is set so low. Tebow, John Skelton and Gus Frerotte were a combined 16-0 over the past decade when their teams allowed 10-18 points. The Texans are betting that Osweiler can become good enough for Houston to win even if the defense falls off. He might be able to do that, but the evidence is lacking. The Broncos were willing to take their chances with another quarterback.
They could still wind up paying good money for one, particularly if they acquire Colin Kaepernick.

The reality regarding Osweiler is that coaches and evaluators around the league aren't all that excited about him on the whole. Some questioned his athleticism and overall quickness even before he ran directly into defenders on multiple bootlegs. I suspect most will place him in the third tier of our next "Quarterback Tiers" project. That is hardly a kiss of death for a player with only seven starts, but the list of young veterans falling into that range last offseason remains plastered with question marks. Nick Foles, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford were the youngest quarterbacks voted into the third tier of our 2015 survey. None has proven he can win consistently without a strong defense.

Osweiler might wind up being better than Hoyer and some of those third-tier quarterbacks. If Osweiler is bound for stardom and the Texans could see it better from afar than Elway could see it from up close, good for them. But let the record show that Houston was the team too fearful to draft Derek Carr or stay the course with serviceable, low-priced veterans such as Fitzpatrick and Hoyer.

Elway operates in the absence of such worries. He can proceed knowing he has the higher batting average and the confidence to make moves for the right reasons, not out of desperation.
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Brock Osweiler should give Texans' offense needed stability

The Houston Texans just took a shot at fixing their quarterback situation by agreeing to a four-year, $72 million deal with Brock Osweiler.

Osweiler was one of the hottest quarterback properties on the free-agent market, which should tell you all you need to know about this year's market. This is a quarterback who was benched for a Peyton Manning who was a shell of his former self.

The Broncos saw the interception-prone, 2015 version of Manning as a better option than Osweiler, which is far from a ringing endorsement, nor is the fact that they bowed out of the race for his signature once the price got too high.

In Houston, though, Osweiler enters an offense that relies heavily on the run game, and now has a proven running back with the signing of Lamar Miller from Miami. Arian Foster was a good runner when healthy, but Miller has been one of the league's more underrated players over the past couple of seasons and brings a real dynamism to the run game.

The offensive line, once one of the best in the league, has been eroded and is far from elite, though Osweiler will at least have the blindside protection of Duane Brown to lean on. Brown allowed 27 total pressures last season and remains one of the league's better pass-blocking tackles.

He also has DeAndre Hopkins, who emerged last season into one of the league's best receivers. The downside is that there is no secondary threat. Sophomore Jaelen Strong was looking like the most likely to become one until he was arrested for mar1juana possession.

Obviously, Houston can't match the defense the Broncos had in 2015, despite J.J. Watt. The defense has been improving in recent years, but it isn't an all-time great unit or one that can carry an ailing offense the way Denver's could.

Still, for all of Osweiler's flaws and limitations, he has looked better in limited time than the carousel of quarterbacks whom the Texans were forced to revolve through in 2015.

Osweiler has good size, a solid arm, and when kept clean, actually had a passer rating of 95.9 last season and a completion percentage of 66.5 percent. With Miller coming on board and Hopkins already in place as a receiving weapon, the Texans now have the makings of a pretty solid offense, even if Osweiler is the beneficiary of a seller's market.
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Commodore · Mar 9, 2016

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>By signing w/ Texans instead of Broncos, Brock Osweiler will save approx $2.6M in state taxes-depending on Houston's schedule in '17-19 <a class="hashtag" action="hash" title="#NFL">#NFL</a></p>— Drew Johnson (@Drews_Views) <a href="https://twitter.com/Drews_Views/status/707713836099371009" data-datetime="2016-03-00T23:45:01+00:00">March 0, 2016</a></blockquote>
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Icehouse · Mar 9, 2016

So Brock didn't really wanna be in Denver yet we still sound up paying more?

FLASH21 · Mar 9, 2016

Bobbythegreat said: ↑

Well, I wasn't a fan of the idea, but I'll certainly give the kid the benefit of the doubt.
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Yes!!! This means he'll DEFINITELY be good.... Woohoooooo!

Bobby is to the Texans what DD is to the Rockets, reverse jinx!

J.R. · Mar 9, 2016

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bob McNair: "Oh I think it's tremendous, one of our biggest days. Just met all of our expectations. It's terrific. We hit a home run"</p>— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkBermanFox26/status/707721687803027457">March 10, 2016</a></blockquote>
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DreamShook · Mar 9, 2016

FLASH21 said: ↑

Yes!!! This means he'll DEFINITELY be good.... Woohoooooo!

Bobby is to the Texans what DD is to the Rockets, reverse jinx!
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That made me lol.

It's kind of true.

Jake Tower · Mar 9, 2016

I didn't think they'd do it!

Wow!

Commodore · Mar 9, 2016

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Just got a text from a buddy who's dad is sitting next to some guy named Brock. <a href="https://t.co/n7Ra3irc3K" title="http://twitter.com/StewwBacca/status/707726636947353604/photo/1">pic.twitter.com/n7Ra3irc3K</a></p>— Stew (@StewwBacca) <a href="https://twitter.com/StewwBacca/status/707726636947353604" data-datetime="2016-03-10T00:35:53+00:00">March 10, 2016</a></blockquote>
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Apps · Mar 9, 2016

justtxyank said: ↑

Appears that Broncos wanted osweiler back badly but he did not want to be back
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This has to be the case. After seeing their team win the Super Bowl with a geriatric Manning at the helm, and after seeing Osweiler go 5-2, the Broncos had to believe that they could do it all again this year with a younger guy with some potential to boot. Where do they even go now? RG3? Kaep? Draft pick? They don't have any other options. Osweiler was their ace up the sleeve, and they couldn't hold onto him. I feel that all this talk about Elway knowing what he's doing and willingly letting him go is just bluster, the Broncos have to be very frustrated that their "next man up" is gone.

Whether or not this is a big gain for Houston isn't clear, but I'm confident that Denver is viewing it as a big loss at the very least.

J.R. · Mar 9, 2016

ipaman · Mar 9, 2016

Had to win another SB next season or it's a failure. playoffs & play well in Houston and it's a huge success. Of course he left.

desihooper · Mar 9, 2016

v3.0 said: ↑

Osweiler seems to be more of a Rick Smith signing from McNair's quotes, so next question would be how much convincing did he have to do to get Obrien on board and abort any high draft pick for Hackenburg ideas.
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RasaqBoi said: ↑

Reading those quotes from McNair....... Does it seem like Rick Smith wanted Osweiler more than anyone else?

I want to hear what BoB has to say. I wonder how "Jaelen Strong" he really is on Brock.
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RasaqBoi said: ↑

This is what scares me. If a Head Coach has to get convinced on a QB, that is not good.

Also seems like Brock gets his feelings hurt a bit (from the benching etc) - BoB is wayyyyyyyyyy diff from Kubiak. He will make you cry in 3 seconds. I hope he's ready.
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We all know BO'B fell in love with Brock's hair and that was it :grin:

Hoping he's "the guy" we've been waiting for since Year 4 of Carr and 2011 Schaub went down with the Lisfranc injury.

J.R. · Mar 9, 2016

John Elway will make sure the Broncos don't miss Brock Osweiler

Some advice for Brock Osweiler:

Don’t let the door hit you in the arse on the way out of Denver.

The Broncos ultimately will be just fine based upon the franchise’s long track record of success and John Elway’s acumen at evaluating the quarterback position since becoming general manager.

The Houston Texans? We’ll see.

The succession plan Denver had hoped for following Peyton Manning’s retirement didn’t go as planned. The Texans swiped Osweiler away Wednesday with a reported four-year, $72 million contract that included $37 million guaranteed.

For a quarterback with seven career starts.

The deal was so exorbitant that long-time NFL backup Matt Flynn — no stranger to being overpaid himself — committed some player-on-player crime from his Twitter account.

It’s also the type of move a desperate franchise makes. The Texans put themselves in this position by flubbing the 2014 draft when eschewing Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr in favor of outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney and guard Xavier Su’a-Filo with their first two draft picks.

With star defensive end J.J. Watt in his prime, Houston has a defense that is Super Bowl-ready. The offense was anything but in 2015 with a shaky cast of passers led by Brian Hoyer.

Osweiler was the best veteran option available in a thin group of QBs available via free agency or trade.

If the signing fails to pan out, head coach Bill O’Brien and general manager Rick Smith won’t have to sweat it. They’ll probably be looking for work elsewhere soon enough. Osweiler also buys time for the Texans to select a developmental quarterback (sorry, Tom Savage) in April’s draft.

The Broncos are likely to seek the same, although that won’t solve the immediate problem of trying to find a starter for a team trying to defend its Super Bowl title.

Elway saw the 1999 Broncos struggle with a similar situation following his retirement post-Super Bowl 33. But at least there were two viable in-house options in journeyman Bubby Brister, who went 4-0 as a starter the previous season replacing an injured Elway, and second-year QB Brian Griese. The latter was given the nod in training camp.

Though the Broncos went 6-10 that season, there were far bigger reasons than Griese — most notably the career-wrecking knee injury suffered by star running back Terrell Davis — that caused Denver to collapse.

The only quarterback currently on Denver’s roster is Trevor Siemian, a 2015 seventh-round pick from Northwestern. The only way he’ll start in 2016 is if the regular season begins tomorrow.

Thankfully for the Broncos, it doesn’t. Elway has time to figure a way out of this quarterback conundrum.

Maybe it’s signing free-agent Ryan Fitzpatrick away from the New York Jets. He can fill the game-manager role that Peyton Manning played down the stretch in Denver.

Maybe it’s trading with the 49ers for Colin Kaepernick, who has made it no secret that he wants out of San Francisco.

Maybe it’s giving Robert Griffin III the chance to reinvent his career in the same style of West Coast offense where he enjoyed a blockbuster 2012 rookie season that ended with a horrific knee injury.

Maybe it’s none of the above, but someone else Elway has in mind.

This is what I do know: As a Pro Football Hall of Fame quarterback, Elway knows the position as well if not better than any other NFL general manager. He found a way out of the Tim Tebow dilemma in 2012 by wooing Manning as a free agent and later constructing a roster in 2015 where a dominant defense made amends for mediocre quarterback play.

I’ve written this before as well — nobody knows Osweiler better than Broncos coaches and front office. Beyond the seven-game sample size of Osweiler as a starter in 2015, Denver has spent four seasons watching his practice habits, leadership skills and football IQ in the meeting room.

The biggest reason the Broncos reinserted Manning as their starter last season was Osweiler’s inability to prove he was unquestionably the best option under center while the former was rehabilitating a foot injury. Sore feelings toward the franchise may very well have led Osweiler to consider his options elsewhere this offseason rather than succeeding the retiring Manning.

We do know for certain that the Broncos had a price on how much they were willing to pay Osweiler. The fact Denver wouldn’t match Houston’s offer speaks volumes about what Elway thinks about Osweiler’s upside, even if the Broncos now have a gaping hole to fill.

It’s now on Osweiler and the Texans to prove Elway was wrong.
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RasaqBoi · Mar 9, 2016

Seems like Broncos vs Texans war.

Rockets FTW · Mar 9, 2016

Y'all know what's bound to happen right?

Broncos vs Texans primetime or playoff game. Watch.

Would be epic.

Rockets FTW · Mar 9, 2016

We play the Broncos in Denver this year... get ready.

mick fry · Mar 9, 2016

Elway said he wants players that want to be there, Um yeah so do we.

Mr. Clutch · Mar 9, 2016

Rockets FTW said: ↑

We play the Broncos in Denver this year... get ready.
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Denver -10

rocketpower2 · Mar 9, 2016

Anxious to see the structure on this one. I'm expecting a big cap number in Year 2 to take care of all the guaranteed money in the first two years.

Rockets FTW · Mar 9, 2016

Mr. Clutch said: ↑

Denver -10
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Prob Den -4.5

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Texans sign Brock Osweiler

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