Zach Lowe: Terrence Jones could be asking for $15M per year

I didnt mean to bet literally buddy, and iam not comparing him to Dmo at all.
Iam trying to see what you mean by saying there is light in the end of the tunnell for TJ. By using Dmos stats iam just saying that he wont reach that, which is reasonable stats for any PF, and iam using that as the ceiling for jones, and he still wont reach it.
So what do you expect him to become ? Why is he not awful?
Low basketball IQ:check Terrible shooter: check, his form is in shambles so no chance of improvement no physical advantage: check, hes a 6.9 PF who doesent have the necessary athleticism to make up for that height. So how is that close minded?
This is what i was referring to dobro about in the TJ thread, its just talk without any reason or merit behind it.

 

Codman,

I respect your opinion. But I question whether you have enough information on Terrence. Terrence's biggest problem is he has a slow processor. That's never going to change. He's exactly like Kwame in that regard. You brought up Kwame.

Secondly, Terrence suffers with self-confidence. He hasn't beat it in 6 years. Won't likely beat it.

Thirdly, now he has a significant physical issue that isn't going away that is going to affect his athleticism continuously. He's not the same athlete he was when he was drafted. I'm not going to roll all that out. But he's lost explosion and quickness and it's never coming back.

And I'm not even touching his skill set and lack thereof.

He's destined for a pedestrian career. Just another player.

 

Eh, that's the really big problem imo. I mean, other things are true too, but he was still able to put down good games with his ability to play in the dirt, i remember some impressive double doubles vs Spurs and other good teams, something like 18+13...but it really seems that the nerve injury has hit him hard, and his confidence just went down with it...

 

Before I respond specifically, I must reiterate that I am NOT a TJ fan. I'm a Rockets fan. Do I like him as a player? Sure. Do I think he's the best thing since sliced bread? No. Do I agree with the title of this thread about his potential to make 15 millie a year? No. Is TJ having the worst season on the Rockets outside of Ty Lawson? Yup. Besides all of that, I am absolutely tired of any discussion about TJ automatically going into a debate, or this fan-made war, of TJ versus DMo. It's stupid. One discussion does not relate to the other, and all of this nonsense of placing the two young men against each other on a fan level echoes the AB versus KLowry crap. I don't get it...

I know more than enough about TJ as a player, though not personally. I have eyes like you, and I have plenty of experience in coaching at a high level, including countless discussions with scouts who have shown some of their rationale when rating players. It's how we recruit, similarly to how NBA teams consider players to sign or to trade for. That's not me being arrogant, but I'm not an idiot in this area. I'm an idiot when it comes to hockey, baseball and pickle ball, but basketball is the main part of my career.

Anyway, if anyone knew TJ as a player and as a person, on a personal level, and had evidence to support the claim that he is a slower processor with a low IQ, I'd have no problem believing it. The truth is that assumption of his intellect and cognitive abilities, among other brain-related aspects, is based without any sort of proof. It's all speculation. I just won't agree with these things based on the observations from TV. We simply don't know these things. Period.

It's all assumptions. And, if we go by DM, who is definitely not misinformed, he has always been high on TJ. When he was healthy during the beginning of his career, he had a great deal of promise. He's definitely had an epic setback, but that happens to plenty of players, and they eventually get it back together.

To your point about Kwame Brown, the personal shots at his IQ are unfounded. I agree with you about what he did on the court, but no one knows his intelligence level. Sure, other players have said things about him, but again, where's the proof?

Self-confidence issues? Maybe, but no one knows. All based on observation. He may have all the confidence in the world, even if we don't think he should have it based on his play this season.

As I wrote, he has regressed. His injuries may have an everlasting effect on his career. So, I agree with that.

All I'm claiming is that he is just not as HORRIBLE as posters make him out to be.

You mentioned him having a pedestrian career. That very well may happen. But, that's a much, much better career than the manner in which some people say he's nothing but a scrub.

All of this, including my belief that he'll figure it out as a rotation player, is just the opinions of fans. No one truly knows how this young man will turn out after he heals from his various injuries and matures as a player, and equally importantly, as a man.

 

I don't know what I expect TJ to become, but he's young enough to heal and improve. I think it's still too soon to measure his ceiling as well. The light at the end of the tunnel suggestion just means that players can come back strong after mediocre or horrendous seasons.

"Awful" is subjective, in my opinion. Your ideas about is IQ and no chance of improvement are unfounded and pretty limited predictions.

I do agree that his shot needs work. In fact, he needs a lot of work. But, either way, the door isn't shut for TJ. He's young enough to improve, and in my opinion (which is just an opinion), he will improve. That's the light at the end of the tunnel, in regard to posters who think TJ is done as an NBA player. Will he be an all-star? probably not. Can he get back to putting up a double-double in games? Sure, but probably not as an average.

I call some of your ideas "close-minded," not as an insult, but your predictions are very black and white. You absolutely don't consider that there is a chance that TJ becomes a decent player. Maybe we just disagree about what "decent" means. It's subjective in itself.

this thread is mainly about what TJ will get paid, and I have already said that I don't think he'll be paid anywhere near 15 mill. I've already written that he has had arguably the worst season of any player on this roster.

Still, there's no reason why he can't become BETTER, if he heals.

And, as I'm sure dozens of posters are cheering about, he probably won't be in a Rockets uni again.

 

I honestly think that it's more likely that Jones will be out of the league completely and probably trying to play overseas within a few years than it is for him to turn it around and become a productive rotation player.

The kid can't shoot and he's a guy that derived 100% of his ability from athleticism. That meant he never was going to have a terribly long career if he didn't develop some kind of skill game but now that injuries have robbed him of his athleticism early, he's basically useless far more often than not.

This was never about propping someone else up. Some people saw the potential for this happening years ago, some are just figuring it out now.

 

But, you see, with jopat, if you don't think Terrence Jones in an NBA uniform is a sign of the Apocalypse, then you love him.

It's kinda like President Obama. Maybe you don't love him as a President, but you don't hate him, and you certainly don't think he was born in Africa; but to Obama haters, it doesn't matter. If you don't despise his every breath, then you think he's God's gift to the presidency.

Thus, jopat and Tjones. I mean, Cod, certainly you know that if Tjones showed up to play a pickup game at the YMCA, he should be chosen last, even after the schlubby four-eyed white guys?

And here comes jopat with his other account.

 

Nobody "foresaw" anything. Nobody here has a crystal ball. Jones up till this Summer SHOULD HAVE been expected to produce about 11PPG, 6.5 RPG, over 50% from the field, with an assist & a block per game. That's a solid rotation player, and that's what he produced for 2 years prior. Expectations should have been that he'd be exactly who he is for 2 years.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/joneste01.html#per_game::none

If Reason & Logic DOESN'T rely on significant statistical data then I guess I'm guilty of not using reason & logic. Unless his stats lied to me, then that's what I was going off of that told me before this season that we needed Jones UNLESS WE COULD GET AN UPGRADE.

I'd say the same thing about Patrick Beverley now even though he's JAPG (Just another PG) from a statistical standpoint. Unless you have an upgrade readily available you are better off keeping the player than getting rid of him for nothing really in return.

I obviously thought D-Mo was an upgrade if healthy, but I knew he wouldn't be unless he's a freak of nature, and I wanted to be conservative with his expectations. I also thought Josh Smith is an upgrade (might have been wrong there too), but was concerned about him going elsewhere in FA (was right there), and even though SOME POSTERS said back on draft night that Harrell is "already better" than Jones, I knew that rookies often struggle to get PT because of mistakes made that force them to the bench.

The fact is, we needed the Terrence Jones that showed up the past two seasons before this one, but he didn't show up this year. Not sure why this REASON & LOGIC is so gawd damn controversial.

 

If you're trying to frame the discussion around a player being in the NBA is a good player or that a pedestrian NBA player is a very good player and miles better than a typical street baller them I have no problem acknowledging that.

I'm not talking about that though. I'm taking about within the NBA. Terrence currently is not better than maybe 20% of the power forwards currently in the league.

And there is evidence that Terrence has a slow processor. I didn't make that up. Came from the coaching fraternity. If you ply the right chick's with a few drinks and then roll them around the golf course and ask them questions, the truth has a way of falling out their bottom lip before they can stop it.

NBA players and coaches are a fraternity. They protect each other. You know that. But the truth is out there about Terrence. And some things are self-evident. Such as the fact that we tried to trade him and could not find any value for him


Yes, somewhere down the road he might 'figure it out' and become a solid rotaion player for some team. But that's neither here nor there in our current quest to win a championship. He is not the answer for us at the 4. He never was the answer for us at the 4. He is currently the worst big man on the team and can't Crack the rotation when we're a .500 team. And I did know this in December of 2013 when I said then he wasn't the answer.

 

A lot yes. Im not sure what indicators were out there that showed TJones would regress so much in a contract year after years of average production.

 

No worries. I agree that its hard to peg what TJ's specialty was before this season, but I'd say the same for alot of very valuable NBA players. I don't want to compare Jones to Draymond Green, but you can say that you'd want Jones to do alot of the same things that Green does for GS.

You'd want a big that can play small & switch on wing/guards if needed. Run the court, been a threat to play on the perimeter, move the ball, and push the pace in transition off of a missed rebound. Versatility seems generic and non-skilled focused, but that ability with a big is pretty highly sought after in the modern NBA.

Jones squandered an opportunity to make himself into a pretty valuable NBA player... even if he was always labeled as "JAP", or a role player. What people here need to realize is that he did have his moments where his "Versatility" was key for the Rockets. In the Clippers series, when the Rockets went small (& when Doc went hack happy) Jones giving the Rockets a small ball big was huge. They don't win that series if they have to keep Dwight or Josh Smith in the game & they keep hacking.

Jones HAD value to the team before this season. His value was mostly coming in the fact that the team couldn't acquire anyone that did what did he did better, but denying that he ever had value & that he SHOULD HAVE brought that same value this year is just flat out wrong. We are all just way too focused on "Who predicted what" & shaming everyone else that doesn't simply agree. Hell even when you agree, they sometimes will argue with you just for hell of it.

And I'm not pointing fingers at you here. Just ranting about the others who we shall not name. Your point about his lack of a skill thing is really just narrative that the other guys use to argue against Jones. Skill or no skill, what he did for our team for two years before this one had value, and obviously wasn't so easily replaced (or else Morey wouldn't be searching the world for the Michael Beasley's of this world).

 

The thread title makes me laugh.

 

Well that's how you end up being wrong, not being able to see indicators that suggest poor play. If you STILL can't see those indicators when it comes to Jones, well....

 

Plenty of people were able to identify Jones' fundamental weaknesses early on. The fact that you didn't doesn't mean the clues weren't there.

It means you're using the statistical data improperly.

 

Really, we agree on the general premise that TJ has regressed.

We'll just have to agree to disagree about the assumptions about TJ that are more personal (like your whole coaching fraternity/drunken golf course tidbit...)

It's a tired tissue altogether.

It used to be a good discussion until some posters attempted to create some sort of divisive thing for whatever reason.

I'm just going to end my part in here with what I've already posted: TJ has had a terrible, God-awful year. That does not mean he's trash,untalented or has a low-IQ. He may not ever be an all-star or average a double-double. I believe he will improve when he heals, although not on the Rockets. And, that does not make me a TJ fan or a DMo hater.

I'm out.

 

It just shows your lack of knowledge on my background with Jones that you think I don't understand his weaknesses. Thats a complete garbage attack on me if you are trying to go there.

We could talk for an hour about Jones' weaknesses. That was never the point. The point with me was always "should we get rid of his a#$ ASAP" like Hollic, Bobby, Cxbby, etc. have been wanting to do since Nov 2013 at any cost & preaching that he is the scum of the earth.

Yes, I'd LOVE to have upgraded Jones then, and certainly now. That's not the point.... where's the upgrade & why do we move him before he have that upgrade?? I would have loved to get a 1st rounder for him if that gave us the ability to flip the pick for a true upgrade. But what he does has value to the team obviously or they would have just waived him years ago if they were JUST focused on his weaknesses because WE ALL KNOW he has plenty of them.

The Jones problem on the team spoke more to Morey's inability to upgrade the position than it did about anything with Jones. You could say the same thing about Pat Beverley & the PG position.

Really.... please then enlighten me on the proper way to use stats as a predictive measure, and take TJ's stats to show me what he was SUPPOSED TO produce this year based on past history.

And that won't help your case against anything I just said. I don't you guys even know what you are arguing with me about on this one. If you don't think that TJ 2013/14 and 2014/15 had value then I don't know what to tell you.

I'm not saying he SHOULDN'T have been upgraded, but his role certainly had value, and obviously Morey hasn't been able to upgrade to do what Jones did for the team but better.

So go ahead, and enlighten me about how I'm using stats wrong.

 

Jones is one of, if not the worst PF in the NBA, the upgrade is literally any other PF. As we speak, Jones is the 4th best PF on the Rockets not counting guys who play out of position at the 4 sometimes like Capela or whoever.

Some people were wildly optimistic about what Jones could or would become and they were flat out wrong. It's okay because everyone is wrong sometimes, what isn't okay is pretending that you weren't wrong or pretending that there was no way of knowing you'd be wrong. People knew you'd be wrong. They knew it a long time ago. That wasn't luck, it was just accurate analysis while you were using flawed analysis. Just accept it and move on. You'll likely be right next time.

 

Beasley and Greg Oden did have talents (very high draft picks) but ended up having pedestrian careers.

It is not just about talent or skills that makes one's NBA career.

Ballholic has his points, I agree, but half of what he has been spewing is just either pure hatred or he has some issues with Terrence Jones the person not the player.

The same goes for Bobbynotsogreat.

Some kind of obsession.

TJones has been in and out of the rotation.

Anyone with a healthy mindset would root for a young, struggling player instead of crapping on him.

 

Two average seasons from the context of a NBA player on a rookie contract, spare me. No one could have accurately predicted the plethora of injuries Jones has endured. You were calling Jones a garbage player when he was by defintion, average. A broken clock is wrong twice a day and you got lucky.

 

Appreciate the civility of being able to discuss this with you without childish insults bandied about. Trite True Rockets fans never root against the team but they do get disgusted and upset when they see and know things that are going to prevent their team from wining it all. The team ALWAYS takes precedence over any individual player. And being realistic about the state of the team and it's roster is preferable to me over fantasy.

I may know some things that you don't simply because my contacts are different than yours. And I know that you know things that I don't because of your contacts aren't mine. Good luck with your treatments. Peace.