11, 20, 42, 61, 74, 83, 91. After what the system has lost in the last year, pretty insane that we still have seven in the top 100. Testament to the job the smart ones have done.
BA Top 100 with Scouting Grades: 11. A.J. Reed, 1b, Astros Hit: 60. Power: 65. Speed: 30. Fielding: 40. Arm: 60. ETA: 2016. Age: 22 20. Francis Martes, rhp, Astros Fastball: 70. Curveball: 70. Changeup: 50. Control: 50. ETA: 2017. Age: 20 42. Alex Bregman, ss, Astros Hit: 60. Power: 45. Speed: 55. Fielding: 50. Arm: 50. ETA: 2017. Age: 21 61. Kyle Tucker of, Astros Hit: 60. Power: 60. Speed: 50. Fielding: 50. Arm: 50. ETA: 2019. Age: 18 74. Daz Cameron of, Astros Hit: 45. Power: 50. Speed: 55. Fielding: 60. Arm: 55. ETA: 2019. Age: 19 83. Joe Musgrove rhp, Astros Fastball: 60. Slider: 50. Changeup: 50. Control: 70. ETA: 2016. Age: 23 91. David Paulino rhp, Astros Fastball: 70. Curveball: 60. Changeup: 50. Control: 50. ETA: 2018. Age: 22
If Martes gets off to a hot start, expect him to skyrocket into the top 2-3 prospects in baseball. He has virtually everything to be a #1 type starter. Reports from this Winter are his cutter is exceptional.
In BA's podcast from yesterdy, they (Manual and Cooper) loved Paulino too. Jeez a guy we got for Jose Veras and a throw-in in the Cosart deal. I love it. BA seems to really like the Astros
This is largely inconsequential since he's gonna play 1B so it won't factor too much, but AJ Reed was a great pitcher in college and could hit 93, how is his arm only a 60? I understand throwing off a mound and throwing around the diamond are different, but I have to imagine he has a cannon.
If I were other teams and the astros came asking about one of my throw-away players. I'd hold on to that guy for dear life. The astros in that Cosart deal got: Martes, Moran, Marisnick, and Daz Cameron. The astros have made a few mistakes: Delino Deshields jr and J.D Martinez, but other than that they are killing it. I do see a championship for the astros in the near future. They are just making way too many great moves not to win it.
I really don't think this logic makes sense, but fangraphs has a 60 grade fastball being 93 mph, so maybe it makes sense. A cannon would probably be the outfielders that can throw 100+
Don't know too much about their farm except they took the DBacks to the shed twice and traded the best defensive SS for all of the Angels prospects.
The think I like about that list is that it covers one of everything except for LHP. Power corner infielder? Check Middle infielder? Check Outfielders, both corner and center? Check Starting RHP? Check
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-farm-systems-ranked-by-surplus-war/ Astros came out 4th in this measurement of farm systems using BA's prospect rankings. It is interesting that the list is as different as it is from BA's own list. BA has mentioned that over time they have been ranking farms more by the elite prospects than by depth. Zimmerman's ranking using BA's prospects grades takes this even further than BA already has.
Given the subjective nature of these grades and prospect rankings, It would be interesting to compare the Top 100 prospect list(s) say from the past 15 years and re-rank them in terms of their actual productivity as MLBers... so compare if a prospect was assigned (for example) a "70" or a "55" in the grading system with the assigned projected WAR with their actual WAR in the big leagues. Should give an interesting comparison on the reliability of these rankings and projections with the actual results. I'd be curious to see what % of their projections are accurate and how often they just fall completely flat.
Zimmerman WAR per grade is based off of looking at actual historical WAR versus prospect grade so the busts are averaged in with the successes to give a somewhat accurate, but less precise expected WAR (i.e. the average of 55 grade prospects should be close to his number, but there should be differences in actual performance) The following link may have a little more on what you are looking: http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/how-much-an-mlb-prospect-is-worth-updated-trade-surplus-values/
