Nailing the absolute worse isn't really that hard. It isn't that hard to know that the Angels are really low on talent.
Nailing the worst means that none of the worst are rated the best. It also means none of the best are rated the worst. Considering the high variance in prospects, that's probably good enough to say he isn't crazy. Astros, Rays, and A's are the only teams that jumped out as me at being lower that I would expect based on what they have in AAA/AA/elite lower level talent.
Anyone that follows baseball somewhat closely can tell you the bottom 8-10 teams as far as farm systems are concerned. Is Law literally crazy? No, but he has not been as accurate the last few years and has spoken in even more absolute terms. This is coming from someone that likes Law and has been lucky enough to meet him a few times (he was very kind). I suspect his interests outside of baseball have hurt as well...
Most observers of baseball know that the team prospect lists aren't very accurate after the top 5 or so guys per team. Judging a farm in which most of its value is not judged very accurately is going to induce huge variance. In other words, huge error. Outside identifying the barren farms and the teams like the Dodgers, these guys aren't very accurate. A team ranked 3rd on one lists can easily be 15 on another as the difference between the actual value of these farms is going to be decided by guys that outperform and underperform expectations. Which teams, not counting Astros, do you think he is most inaccurate on?
I'm not who you asked, but honestly I think aside from the Astros being too low, I would say the Nationals Red Sox Rangers and Rockies are too low. Cubs too high. Law probably has his reasons though, so meh
Keith Law's top 100 (Insider): 19: Bregman 40: Martes 44: Reed 67: Tucker Spoiler 46. Phillips 68: Appel
I'm surprised he has Bregman so much higher than Reed. I guess that's mostly because of positional value or has he indicated in the past he thinks pretty highly of Bregman (or I guess lowly of Reed despite his stats)?
What has Bregman done to not be ranked high? Consensus high first round pick... faired well in his first post-draft season (where guys typically can be worn out after already having played a full college season... plus playoffs in his case)... and then you do have the positional considerations/versatility factor that may be Bregman's best "skill" in terms of why he could be in the majors rather quickly.
I never said Bregman shouldn't be high, just that I thought he would be behind AJ Reed. The two are not mutually exclusive.
Gotcha... I guess you would have to consider where Reed was last year. Sometimes, its hard to bump somebody up significantly in just one year... on the same token, it seems hard to knock somebody down (or kick somebody off the list entirely) in one year too, hence why Appel is still on nearly every list as well. I'd say the only negatives for Reed are his position and him spending the majority of the season at Lancaster... even though his numbers didn't really go down that much at Corpus.
1. Corey Seager 2. Byron Buxton 3. Lucas Giolito 4. J.P. Crawford 5. Julio Urias 6. Tyler Glasnow 7. Rafael Devers 8. Alex Reyes 9. Nomar Mazara 10. Orlando Arcia 11. Brendan Rodgers 12. Joey Gallo 13. Dansby Swanson 14. Blake Snell 15. Gleyber Torres 16. Austin Meadows 17. Yoan Moncada 18. Andrew Benintendi 19. Alex Bregman 20. Ozhaino Albies 21. Bradley Zimmer 22. Franklin Barreto 23. Kevin Newman 24. Braden Shipley 25. Manuel Margot 26. Jose O. Berrios 27. Willson Contreras 28. Trea Turner 29. Dominic Smith 30. Sean Newcomb 31. Robert Stephenson 32. Lewis Brinson 33. Max Kepler 34. Javier Guerra 35. Taylor Guerrieri 36. Aaron Judge 37. Steven Matz 38. Anderson Espinoza 39. Aaron Blair 40. Francis Martes 41. Jesse Winker 42. Amed Rosario 43. Kolby Allard 44. A.J. Reed 45. Tim Anderson 46. Brett Phillips 47. Ian Happ 48. Michael Fulmer 49. Victor Robles 50. Dillon Tate 51. Alex Verdugo 52. Anthony Alford 53. Kohl Stewart 54. Cody Reed 55. Jorge Mateo 56. Josh Bell 57. Gary Sanchez 58. David Dahl 59. Sean Manea 60. Jose De Leon 61. Tyler Jay 62. Ryan McMahon 63. Jake Thompson 64. Brent Honeywell 65. Christian Arroyo 66. Jorge Polanco 67. Kyle Tucker 68. Mark Appel 69. Billy McKinney 70. Trent Clark 71. Grant Holmes 72. Clint Frazier 73. Raul Mondesi 74. Nick Williams 75. Jorge Lopez 76. Marco Gonzales 77. Yusniel Diaz 78. Raimel Tapia 79. Luis Ortiz 80. Touki Toussaint 81. Chance Sisco 82. Jorge Alfaro 83. Jack Flaherty 84. Archie Bradley 85. Daniel Robertson 86. Amir Garrett 87. James Kaprielian 88. Albert Almora 89. Gavin Cecchini 90. Jeff Hoffman 91. Dylan Cease 92. Cody Bellinger 93. Bobby Bradley 94. Kyle Zimmer 95. Alex Jackson 96. Max Fried 97. Tyler Kolek 98. Nick Gordon 99. Brady Aiken 100. Hunter Harvey
Baseball America's Top 100 prospects list comes out today, and they've already released the back half of the list. The top 50 will be revealed at 8:00 Central on MLB Network. Spoiler 61. Kyle Tucker 74. Daz Cameron 83. Joe Musgrove 91. David Paulino
Bregman, Reed, & Martes all in the top 50 (same as MLB.com). BA is definitely the most bullish on us as Musgrove & Paulino didn't make BP, MLB, or Law's list, and Daz didn't make Law's list. Personally, I don't see Paulino as a top 100 guy (he had a great season, but it was really only half of one). I think Musgrove earned it with his back-to-back excellent seasons despite his seemingly lower ceiling than those other guys.
also the organizational rankings were posted: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/organization-talent-rankings-list/ The Astros are surprisingly hight at #2 (Vs #17 by ESPN) and the Cubs are ranked here at #20...pretty low IMO. Spoiler 1. LA Dodgers 2. Houston Astros 3. Atlanta Braves 4. Boston Red Sox 5. Washington Nationals 6. Colorado Rockies 7. Texas Rangers. 8. Philadelphia Phillies 9. Milwaukee Brewers 10.Minnesota Twins 11.Pittsburgh Pirates 12.Cincinnati Reds 13.Tampa Bay Rays 14.St. Louis Cardinals 15.NY Mets 16. Cleveland Indians 17.New York Yankees 18.Oakland Athletics 19.SF Giants 20.Chicago Cubs 21.KC Royals 22.AZ Diamondbacks 23.Chicago White Sox 24.Toronto Blue Jays 25.SD Padres 26.Detroit Tigers 27.Baltimore Orioles 28.Miami Marlins 30. LA Angels
