I wish the team would be more comfortable playing the day's backup catcher at DH. Yes there is risk that your catcher will get hurt and you will lose your DH for the game, but it would be such a rare occurrence that I think it is well worth the gamble. I'd personally prefer that to be what we did with Lucroy or Gattis (Not that Gattis is going to be catching for us).
It's only worth the risk if the difference between Lucroy and the next guy up for DH is large enough. How large is large? I don't know.. but with better depth next year, I'm hoping that gap won't be relevant
Win total means nothing, but playoffs do. Baseball is an extremely fickle sport, playoffs aren't a guarantee for anybody, regardless of how good you think your team is. I would rather us be better than we need to be, than not quite good enough. You never know when that little bit of extra production might just be enough to put you over the top.
http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/02/01/winter-report-card-houston-astros Key Departures RHP Mark Appel, 1B Chris Carter, C Hank Conger, OF Robbie Grossman, OF L.J. Hoes, LHP Oliver Perez, LHP Scott Kazmir, IF Jed Lowrie, LHP Brett Oberholtzer, RHP Chad Qualls, LHP Joe Thatcher, RHP Vince Velasquez, UT Jonathan Villar Key Arrivals RHP Doug Fister, RHP Ken Giles, LHP Wandy Rodriguez Looking at this alone, and looking at whether we really got better or not, I find myself feeling: SP - Wash (slight regression?) RP - Better Position Players: Worse? (via several subtractions and no additions) I realize that in any given off season, you only have so many opportunities and so many options that make sense. Its also true that young teams such as ours tend to get better via added maturity and development. But I keep coming away underwhelmed never the less. What much of this thread has focused on is individual moves. Yes, you can make a good case that most of the out goers were not going to help us much. But looking at things in a more global fashion, that is, considering everything that has occurred, have we really gotten better?
Ha! I wanted to roll my eyes at this, but then thought about it. You're right. We have improved the pen: no Qualls, yes Giles, stay Sipp. The rotation compared to opening day '15 is so much better: sup Fliers & LMC. The infield gets to start with an MVP candidate at SS even though the corners remain a slight concern. Our outfield will get a healthy Gomez over Marisnick (who's first month numbers did actually help carry the team). And as long as Gattis accidently hits two homers, DH will be better to start the year. This team is vastly improved from OD last year. It may be similar to what ended the year, but now we get to see it for a full season with hopefully a healthy squad. There is a reason Vegas likes this team.
I think you have to throw in Gomez and full seasons of Correa and LMC in as key arrivals as well. We didn't get those guys for a full season.
Key departures - Grossman, Hoes, Perez? Really? I need to look up the definition of "key". With respect to the everyday lineup, the outfield should be better with a healthy Gomez and a hopefully full year of Springer. The infield will have a full year of Correa. I doubt Valbuena will be worse.
Castro had a WAR of: 1.3, 4.5, 1.8, 1.3 the last four seasons. Lucroy had a WAR of: 3.6, 3.1, 6.7, 1.0 the last four seasons. So basically Castro had a better WAR the year he had a fluke BABIP and the year that Lucroy was hurt (even then it is a negligible difference or .3). So short of an absurd outlier BABIP by Castro, or an injury; Lucroy will have a better season than Castro. There are no guarantees in baseball, this year Colby Rasmus could end up with a higher WAR than Jason Heyward.... or Fister could end up with a better WAR than Zach Greinke. However, it isn't likely and it doesn't mean that Rasmus or Fister are good bets to be better than Heyward or Greinke. Someone will over pay Castro as a free agent, but it isn't likely to be the Astros. He isn't the worst starting catcher, but he isn't very good either. It is all opinion anyway, but I personally would take Lucroy over Castro at the right price.
April 2016 SP > April 2015 SP. The Astros will, barring injuries, get a full year from Correa, Springer, Fiers, McCullers and Gomez. Altuve, Correa, Springer and McCullers have not reach their peak years. AJ Reed will debut this year. The Farm is one year older and one year closer to contributing. You can say this every year, though. The Farm is still top 10, has prospects that are MLB ready and has prospects other teams want.
I dont think its realistic to expect perfect health this coming year, compare it to who was unhealthy last year, and then conclude we will better because of it. At SS, a full year of Correa should help, I agree. But at 1st, starting a guy (Singleton) who has failed at the ML level at every opportunity doesn't bolster confidence. Altuve will be Altuve. Valbuena is a wash. At catcher, I expect us to be worse, offensively, a wash defensively. So the infield looks like a wash to me.
The team that ended last year had the Royals dead to rights, so I don't think a ton of improvement was necessary. We addressed the biggest issue that hurt us in the postseason. A full season of that group plus a sharper pen should be good enough. We didn't lose anything of consequence.
The team that ended last year (September) nearly played us out of playoff contention also. We only added one guy of consequence as well.
Alright, let me ask you (anybody) this. Do feel the team last year: 1) Overachieved 2) Slightly Overachieved 3) Neither 4) Slightly Underachieved 5) Underachieved Personally, I lean towards #2. If I am right, there might be a slight regression towards the mean. Not to mention that 86 wins a lot of years will not land you in the post season.
Well, the vast majority people , old school ,stat projectors and Vegas have us as one of the 4 or 5 favorites to win it all. It isn't myopic homerism that thinks this team is gonna be really good. But, there's no law that says you have to think like everybody else. If you think this team isn't all that good, your entitled to feel that way.
The Astros under achieved slightly last year, part of why I have been very critical of the Astros manager.... Their PY expected win total was 93 last year, not the 86 wins they had last season.
In April and May, the Astros overachieved with a lineup that most felt would struggle to play 500. In August and September, the Astros slightly underachieved with an upgraded lineup. In October, the Astros played to their level, which was good enough to clinch a playoff spot, beat the Yankees and take the Royals to the brink.
