Trump also had 0 organization in Iowa. no GOTV. Almost no precinct captains. This showed his campaign staff blows imo. He way ahead in NH but wouldnt be surprised if they **** that up too.
So there were 5 precincts in Iowa that finished with ties in votes and those precincts delegates were decided by a coin toss..a coin toss to decide a possible president..anyways Clinton won all 5 coin tosses (a 3% probability) and earned all those delegates (probably the difference with her having 5 more delegates than Sanders. There was also possible voter fraud caught on camera in Clinton's favor in Polk County, Iowa. But regardless of all that Bernie losing by only .4% when he was 15-20 pts behind in early Iowa polls a few weeks back..is a pretty good indication of just how much steam his campaign is building and Clinton is being exposed for her greed, dishonesty and corporate not people's interest. This feels like Obama being the underdog in 08 and burying Clinton along the way. If the NH polls are accurate with Bernie up by 31 pts. That is going to turn some heads.
Trump's big f-up was skipping the debate. Lots of Iowans always decide late, and in the week they were paying attention, Cruz/Rubio finally got the opportunity to be on center stage. When Trump is at an event, he sucks all the air out of the room - a key to his campaign has been never letting his rivals be the center of attention, and he screwed that up this week.
No, Trump's big f-up was going full angry douche-bag on Cruz once he realized he had a race on his hands and his "winner" schtick was in trouble. The instant resort to name calling and personal attacks and wild exaggerations (to put it very diplomatically) really have started to leave the impression that this guy is out of control. Now with his 'certain winner' claims destroyed, people are going to be evaluating him like just one of the other candidates. And with candidates rapidly dropping out over the next few weeks, that is going to leave fewer candidates debating, which will leave more time for Trump, with an expectation that he start explaining his policy stances a good bit more thoroughly and not just spewing vitriol at his opponents. Things really are going to change a lot for Trump and his campaign going forward based on the cascading effect that inevitably results from this outcome in Iowa.
Jeb should have never went after Rubio. He should have dropped out and given his support to Rubio. Those outside the top 3 need to dropout, and put their support behind 1 of the 3 left standing.
People keep saying Iowa is meaningless, but every president/primary-winner has been competitive in Iowa. It won't tell you who is gonna win, but it will tell you who won't (Jim Gilmore)
If you call winning 13% competitive (McHain) . But in general, couldn't you said that about any State. You have to be somewhat competitive, else you aren't going to win.
Bill Clinton got crushed in Iowa and also lost in New Hampshire yet won the Presidency. He's the only one to pull off that feat. But many other Presidents have lost one or the other without much impact. All this means is that after Bernie takes New Hampshire they'll both be in it with no clear favorite. It probably turns out that Nevada (2/20) and South Carolina (2/20) are the most important to see who actually has the momentum toward a possible nomination. If they split again that's great for Sanders because it shows that Clinton is not inevitable. That makes South Carolina HUGE for Bernie because he'll likely lose Nevada.
The similarity with Obama is the younger voters. Sanders did even better than Obama among 17-29 (winning 84%). But that's pretty much all he got going. Obama had much wider appeal. He would need to convince the older group to have a chance against Clinton.
It feels like it because you are deluding yourself. The differences between the Bern and Obama 08 are too obvious to bother enumerating. New Hampshire and Iowa are the high water marks of Bernie's demographic profile. It would take a massive beating in both for him to upset the inexorably huge delegate counts Hilary is going start piling up after NH. He didn't get it. And frankly it never really even began.
Ben Carson is livid. Apparently at caucus sites throughout Iowa, Ted Cruz speakers were announcing that Ben Carson had dropped out of the race. Steve King went on Twitter and said Carson was out and that people needed to know before they voted vote him.
Nothing really matters until Super Tuesday. This is when the wave of momentum starts. I really dont care what goes on in the Republican camp. None of their candidates are winners in the general election, unless Hillary wins the nomination and one of her shenanigans faces her head on.
Cruz won this the old fashioned way by outworking the other Repub candidates. For as much of a phenomenon that Trump was Iowans still need and reward those who engage in retail politics.
I agree with a lot of what you have said, with one caveat. I dont think Trump wants to win the nomination. He holds the lead because the media wont stop talking about him.
1) You are crazy if you think the race doesn't matter until Super Tuesday. Bernie Sanders NEEDED a win in Iowa and a win in New Hampshire to generate some sort of momentum prior to Super Tuesday. I know he'll claim victory because he tied her, and it is impressive that he hustled and got there, but Sam is right on this one. 2) You are also crazy if you don't think any Republicans can compete in the general election. Bad candidates are competitive all the time, and Hillary Clinton is no Obama. I would personally predict her to win at this time against any Republican, but it would be a tight race.
How could he not want to win? That implies he wants to lose. I don't understand how anyone could run for President and think that way. It is just far too much trouble.
insane that Cruz was able to win - 11 person field with two former winners and Rand Paul and Ben Carson competing for his voters - Iowa Governor putting out an "anybody but Cruz" kill order - ethanol lobby spending millions to stop him - Trump getting exponentially more free media - lots of phony conservatives jumping on the Trump train for personal gain - Cruz's own inherent deficiencies (awkward mannerisms/appearance) - that stupid mailer and subpar final debate performance - record high turnout for Trump And Cruz still managed to get a record number of votes.
Sanders needed to win both Iowa and NH to really stand a chance.... Soon "Bern baby Bern" will join the Paul Tsongas' and Howard Dean's of the world.
For anyone doubting this, check out this recent bit from 538. Bernie's support is almost completely white liberals. (Trust me, I am surrounded by their annoying asses in San Francisco right now, where everyone is feeling the Bern.) Two of the three whitest and most liberal states are Iowa and New Hampshire, so yes, he gets to start with a flare, but it's going to get brutal by the end of March. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happens-if-bernie-sanders-wins-iowa/
Seems like Kasich pretty much wrote off Iowa. He's been campaigning in NH for the last month. And I believe he's currently polling 2nd behind Trump. Maybe he can still get back in this thing? I seriously had no idea Huckabee or Santorum were running this year. Any time I've seen or heard from them, I assumed it was just because they ran last time. How is anyone still supporting Carson?
