By 2015's standards, would rank us bottom 3rd in the league (lower/mid-20's out of the 30 teams). We've got plenty cheap talent, hopefully can capitalize while the window is open.
He was getting a lot more swinging strikes and strikeouts after the injury than before outside immediately after the injury. Overall, his numbers make him look better post injury than before injury. Edit: I'm not against the signing. I see a decent sized chance that he's ineffective and has to be replaced. I see little chance that he's much more than a slightly better than 4 FIP pitcher. I think he's likely better than Feldman. I not sure he is a SP for the Astros past the trading deadline unless Astros have a lot of injuries as I suspect at least one guy from minors comes up and one starter is added at trading deadline. Hoping he pitches well enough to hold off other guys, but think he should at least be able to hold fort down until reserves make it to roster.
From the same article: Perhaps the higher strikeout numbers were due to his usage as a reliever late in the season, allowing him to dial it up more? Nonetheless, most of the "big picture" metrics would still seem to favor his production before the DL stint. I think we both have the same general expectation, though. High 3s ERA/FIP would be just fine with me, and eat a lot of innings that this team will need.
And also keep in mind that the following are expiring next year: $15.8 - Rasmus $9 - Gomez $8 - Feldman $7 - Fister $6.5 - Neshek $6.1 - Valbuena That's $52.4 million, or over half of our current payroll that will be gone next year. Some of that will be absorbed by bringing back a few of these guys and in arbitration, but you're still going to have a big war chest. Also, who knows how some of our young guys might develop? One of Marisnick or Tucker could establish themselves at the plate, reducing our need to bring back Gomez or Rasmus. Moran, Reed, Bregman or White could lock down 1st and/or 3rd base, allowing us to move on from Valbuena. I think I've moved on from the "let's bring in another bat" group. We've got too many young guys that need an opportunity to show what the can do, and only 1-2 spots to give.
Gotta love this move. If healthy Fister should throw 150 innings of somewhere around 4.00 ERA/FIP baseball. With the Astros bats you've gotta think that will be good for 10-12 wins. Here's a prediction. Fister and Kazmir will post similar WAR (+/- 0.2) values next year.
2 great posts by you in the hour. Nicely done. This is a great point. It actually dovetails with your post in the other thread re: a consolidation trade. With all this money freeing up after this year, it further feeds the possibility to take on a longterm deal (where it makes sense to fit a need / there is longterm value) in a consolidation trade--even if it also involves prospects.
Thanks. It was actually originally one post, but I felt it was getting too lengthy. It does create an interesting dynamic to the roster. I don't think they will hesitate to move Singleton down to the 40 man or even off the roster altogether if Reed, Duffy, or White outright take his spot. But what if 2 of those 3 or Moran or Bregman show that they need time? Of course its a good problem to have, but it's also an interesting question. My guess is that the Astros will mostly sit tight, at least until they get more clarity on what the roster needs. The club will have plenty of openings NEXT year, so the backlog may only be temporary.
Just keep in mind replacing two starting outfielders, two starting pitchers, a starting third baseman and a bullpen arm is going to cost a lot more than $53,000,000.
Not necessarily if we are able to promote some guys from within. Colin Moran, Alex Bregman, Tony Kemp, Francis Martes, Michael Feliz, Joseph Musgrove, DJ Fisher, Riley Farrell and even Jake Marisnick all have a chance to fill those positions heading into next season. Obviously they won't all work out, but some of them will. Plus we tend to trade for cheaper team controlled players and don't sign expensive FA outright.
I disagree. Actually, it's probably going to cost a lot less. The replacements are already in the system. You'd like to think one of Moran, Bregman or White will claim 3rd. One of Reed, White or Duffy claims 1st. One of Marisnick or Preston Tucker develops into a long term option in the outfield. You've also got Fisher, Kyle Tucker and Cameron waiting in the minors. Several pitching prospects. Of course it depends on what the hit rate is, but if you solve half of these holes with players already in the system, that leaves plenty of cash to fill the others.
Doubtful unless Astros go out and get a top tier free agent. A lot of those positions will be replaced with internal options or club controlled talent acquired by prospects.
That is the plan at a minimum, but I am more skeptical than many concerning filling the holes on the roster and remaining every bit as good on the field. Catcher, two outfield spots, 2 starting pitchers, 1st base, 3rd base and a reliever or two all will be in play and I doubt over half are filled successfully with internal options. Luhnow knows what he is doing, but there is a reason he targets players under long term team control. When you can be flexible with need, you can bargain hunt like the Astros did this off season. It gets hard with glaring needs at specific positions... Hell we saw the Astros bend over to get a closer that fit their specific criteria. $53,000,000 is a lot of money, but it goes fast when using free agency. I suspect you will see the Astros trade some of these minor leaguers for established big leaguers at positions of need that are under long term club control.
Internally, we should have 1B/3B/Reliever/Starter covered. We are talking about replacing role players at those positions, and we have strong options. OF and C are up in the air, as the immediately available replacements have significant flaws (Marisnick on offense and Tucker on defense).
I have to imagine this has been the plan all along, and it makes so much sense from a flexibility and player/trade chip development standpoint with Martez, Musgrove and Feliz. Considering the options with Kasmir, Gallardo and other middling guys who got long term big money, this is vastly better. I'd like to see us eventually strike for a front end starter to pair with Keuchel, either via trade or FA. I get its a huge spend, but I personally want Crame to have skin in the game. This team is poised for long term success and we have the right guy pulling the trigger.
The Red Sox are favored to win the AL slightly -- the Astros are #2. The Red Sox had a huge offseason, adding both David Price and Craig Kimbrel. I think we could use one more bat.
But we don't need to go get another bat now We need to give Singleton, Reed, White, Moran time to see who can produce. We don't need to block them at this point. See how it shakes out in the spring, see how it shakes out in April and May, and go get help where we need it Also, what we need offensively is health. Springer stays healthy, Gomez is healthy, having Gomez and Correa in the lineup all year instead of a part of the year...that's a lot of offense added there
