He makes less money and is under team control for several more years. Better question is why would the Braves deal him?
I don't think trading for Inciarte necessarily means Gomez has to be moved. He's under team control for 4 years after this. I could see Inciarte being used as the 4th OF, starter when somebody inevitably gets hurt. Then he becomes the starter in CF next year. His defensive metrics are off the chart, even better than Marisnicks. We may need a CF after Gomez walks. His offensive numbers don't look awesome under scrutiny (can't hit lefties, hitters paradise). I think Marisnick could easily be on his level this year, and Inciarte will likely carry a heavy cost, so I'm not sure if he's worth sinking the assets into.
He's basically about Justin Upton good. The question is he better than Gomez, Springer, and Rasmus if all three stay next season. I would say him and Rasmus are neck and neck with other two being easily better if healthy. Even as a 4th OF, he'd likely get 400 ABs. Luhnow wants depth. Astros have a lot talent are going to end up with some very good players in bench roles in the coming years.
Ender Inciarte Stats Spoiler <script type="text/javascript" src="http://widgets.sports-reference.com/wg.fcgi?css=1&site=br&url=%2Fplayers%2Fi%2Finciaen01.shtml&div=div_batting_standard"></script>
Astros Have Inquired With Braves On Ender Inciarte By Jeff Todd | January 13, 2016 at 11:23am CST The Astros have spoken with the Braves about center fielder Ender Inciarte, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link). It’s not clear what level of interest Houston has at this point. Inciarte, 25, went to Atlanta as a key part of the sizable package sent by the D’Backs in exchange for Shelby Miller. He’s emerged as a sneakily valuable player over the last two seasons, delivering outstanding glovework with a solid bat at a bargain price. If he can keep churning out top-notch defensive metrics and repeat his strong .303/.338/.408 slash from last year, Inciarte would profile as a first-division regular. Of course, Atlanta surely won’t part with Inciarte for anything less than a compelling price. The organization would have ample cause to keep him as a piece of their rebuilding plan, though obviously the same could have been said of some now-former Braves players — Andrelton Simmons, in particular. High-upside players at or near the majors would presumably top the Braves’ wish list, though the Astros have already shipped out quite a few of those in other recent swaps. It’s not immediately obvious what Houston could have in mind with Inciarte. The team already has a high-upside veteran in center in Carlos Gomez, though he fell short of expectations after being acquired last summer, along with a cheap and speedy backup in Jake Marisnick. And the club seems set in the corners with George Springer and Colby Rasmus — both of whom are also capable of playing center. It is intriguing to consider the possibilities, though, if the interest is serious. Crasnick says that he’d expect Houston would need to deal away Gomez if it were to cut a deal for Inciarte. That’s certainly one plausible scenario, though they’d be selling low — and in a potentially weak market — after giving up a major haul to get him just months ago. While we’re on hypotheticals, it’s conceptually possible that the team could dangle Springer for an elite young pitcher. We’ve heard suggestions before that the organization isn’t completely unwilling to consider such a scenario, and teams such as the Indians and Rays could theoretically match up. But that’s all pure speculation at this point, of course.
Luhnow traded for Gattis on 1/15, and Valbuena/Straily on 1/19...hopefully some moves come this week or next
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">royals, astros, orioles all had interest in chen. now kc & balt are among those looking at Gallardo, kc & hou at kennedy</p>— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/687364906912497664">January 13, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Good and bad are obviously relative terms but it's pretty clear Inciarte is better than just a 4th OF. 2 WAR is generally accepted as starter level production and he's averaged 3 WAR over the last two seasons, implying he's above average. He's got average hitting and plus defense in center which is overall an above-average player. Marisnick put up classic 4th OF production last year: 1.8 WAR on the basis of plus defense and minus hitting. If his hitting bumps a grade he could be where Inciarte is now.
WAR is a counting stat. 1.8 WAR in 372 ABs is usually considered starter WAR that missed time with injuries. Just sorting by WAR for OFs, I did not see one guy that had more WAR last year than Marisnick that is not projected to be a starter. If you are going to have a starter quality OF as your 4th OF, wouldn't you want the better guy? BTW, Marisnick's time with the Astros...he has 2.9 WAR in 568 ABs which is very impressive considering he had a 4-month slump in which he couldn't hit fastballs right down Kirby Drive. Personally, I would have no problem trotting out Inciarte, Marisnick, and Springer in OF if Astros traded Gomez and acquired Inciarte.
WAR is a counting stat but I don't see a scenario where increasing his AB's significantly increases his WAR. His slash line was .236/.281/.383 with an wRC+ of 80; by nearly every hitting metric he was below average. His WAR is basically completely defense driven. That's troublesome because defensive metrics are still highly flawed and his real value is probably lower than WAR is giving him credit for. I don't see him starting on any team right now except for a bottom-feeder like the Phillies or Braves. I'd have a huge problem with putting that OF line-up you suggested. Defensively it might be one of the best in the league but offensively it's net average at best. There's not enough offensive talent on the team to carry two average or below OFer's.
Yeah, but probably not a significant increase in WAR either. Looking at Fangraphs WAR leaderboard, there's not a lot of guys that have Marisnick's combination of a minus bat and plus-double plus defense getting 600 PA's. I surmise that's probably because it's really hard to carry a minus bat all season. The closest comps with >500 AB's I can find are Austin Jackson, who had a slightly higher WAR at 2.3, and Inciarte who has a significantly better hit grade.
Has anyone on here been to fan fest before? Thinking about going this year. Is it worth going to? Were you able to get atugraphs from all the players? How long are the lines for the autographs? Thanks in advance!
Defensive metrics are flawed, but huge variance doesn't mean that a player is getting more value. It just means there is a huge error that could go either way in most circumstances. In other words, he's as likely to be undervalued as being overvalued.
