Well, Vlad is a viable candidate - but he's no slam dunk. Other than hitting .300 (.318), he doesn't have any milestone numbers (in fact, he finished with the same # of HRs as Bags; 449) and his overall numbers, while good, are not outstanding - certainly not for his era. If Larry Walker can't push past 20% (which is silly), I don't see how or why Vlad will. The guy had a tremendous arm, and for many, I'm sure they remember that aspect. But his resume - which, again, I think is worthy of consideration - doesn't scream, "HALL OF FAMER!"
Only thing that worries me, people who do not want to reveal their votes are probably the guys who would not vote for Bagwell.
Oh for sure, the more embarrassing your HOF ballot is, the less likely you are to reveal it. I bet there are some super awful ballots out there that remain secret.
What I just noticed is that Barry Bloom now votes for Bagwell regularly, I got into it with him about 4 years ago and he was adamant that not only was Bagwell not HOF material, but that Steve Garvey was a better first baseman than him. I wasn't able to talk sense into him that day, but it seems that at some point since then, someone taught him baseball.
You didn't have the touch... Here's my initial email to Barry, which led to a spirited debate over a two-year period that ultimately culminated with him changing his vote, in large part because of my persistence. I actually admire Barry tremendously for being humble enough to listen, reconsider and eventually change his vote.
It's going to be ridiculously close for Bagwell. Currently at 80.1% with 166 ballots posted. Announcement is tomorrow. Bags *only* needs 72% of the remaining ballots to go his way to be elected this year.
No, I got into it with Bloom just as he did and probably many, many more baseball fans did. I didn't spell out the case nearly as eloquently as he did and honestly didn't follow up on it enough to realize that he changed his vote till I checked this year....and his ballot this year looks a LOT better than what it did in 2012.
Given that the remaining ballots include many anonymous voters who will be more against him than the open voters...I find it hard to imagine he'll get 72% of the remaining. Preparing for a close miss a la Biggio the year before last.
If we apply last year's math, Bagwell will probably end up... somewhere around 64-66%, which is what I've been guessing for a year (65%, actually). If all the guesstimates of the new number of voters are correct (~450), that'll put him less than 40 votes away next year; a virtual lock - roughly the same position as Piazza's in this year. Once you get that close, a lot of fence sitters go herd.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Former <a class="hashtag" action="hash" title="#Astros">#Astros</a> star Jeff Bagwell,who will learn Wed if he's elected 2 Baseball Hall of Fame,w/thoughts 4 Astros fans <a href="https://t.co/koXj4rO3Xf" title="http://twitter.com/MarkBermanFox26/status/684540562704183298/video/1">pic.twitter.com/koXj4rO3Xf</a></p>— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkBermanFox26/status/684540562704183298" data-datetime="2016-01-06T01:02:42+00:00">January 6, 2016</a></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Seriously, my man-crushes are Olajuwon, Watt, Bagwell, and Jordan.. in that order. All those players were super-great and had unique qualities for their positions... true game-changers and leaders. It hurts that Pipes wasn't good in the postseason, really hurts, and that's really the only knock on him (huge knock), but he was still "awe f**** some". I got chills watching his unorthodox batting stance and when he crushed the ball, "man oh man" (Milo voice). Met one of his family members one time and he was very proud. Will be very disappointing if he never HOF's, but happy his chances seem to have gotten better. Hope he gets his drinking under control and can enjoy his life and success for a long time.
What's crazy is that if the assumption holds that 450 total ballots will be turned in, he will need 338 votes to get in. Bagwell's total votes have been: 2011- 242 2012- 321 2013- 339 2014- 310 2015- 306 So yes, there have been 338 people who believe Bagwell is worthy, but seeing as how some voters have been purged and will not be eligible to vote, that number will go down. How much, we will see tomorrow. Does he eventually get in? Yes.
To add to that line of thinking he is +22 so far this year on the known ballots. So that is a positive to add to the numbers from last year. I think he gets close but not quite in.
+24 now, but down to 77.8%. Assuming same growth in private as public (which I'd consider optimistic), he would be tracking at 68.58%
Damn, 5 ballots just released from NY Post and Newsday and Bagwell is only on one of them. NY writers really do not respect Houston athletes for some reason.
What bothers me most about the sudden drop (which is what happens every year to him) is that it decreases his 2017 odds.
