The Case for Jeff Bagwell in the Hall of Fame

It's the best thing they've done in a hundred years. It made the whole process so much more legitimate.

 

I'm not sure "hypocritical" is the right word. He is possibly the worst national baseball writer on Planet Earth, if not, he's at least in the top 2.

 

Speaking of Heyman, he's no longer at CBS Sports.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Wow, Heyman is out at CBS. What are they doing there? <a href="https://t.co/VnXsdt9q4o">https://t.co/VnXsdt9q4o</a></p>&mdash; Craig Calcaterra (@craigcalcaterra) <a href="https://twitter.com/craigcalcaterra/status/683320376529686528">January 2, 2016</a></blockquote>
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His HOF ballot was bad enough to deserve immediate termination.

 

Moral Guardian Joel Sherman of the New York Post is bewildered as to why some people would want to reveal their HOF ballots.

Also this gem at the end of the article...

 

Piazza was linked to steroids?

 

Back acne & he was a 62nd rounder. Like Bags, he used Andro (and amphetamines).

 

Don't recall *Bagwell ever having acne. Most he did was get bigger and workout after games (when players are supposed to be tired). I think he used, but he's still my favorite baseballer... glad he never had any solid evidence against him.

 

I can't believe that I clicked on something written by him, but Murray Chass, Moral Guardian for the Sanctity of The Game, is mad on the Internet again. I'll accept a neg rep in advance and whatever punishment Castor deems acceptable.

I admit, I only did it for the lulz. If you want to lol as well, here's the link.

He even compares sabermetrics to the Islamic State!

 

Equally important, and too often dismissed, was the BBWAA - for all the consternation - doing a terrific job thinning out the ballot. They've elected seven the past two years + Jack Morris fell off - that's 8 legitimate HoF candidates eliminated.

I argued this last year: even if you were 100% pro-Bagwell, you could have still listed him 11th last year; that's how stuffed the ballot was. I think you could've made a valid case that Bonds, Clemens, Johnson, Pedro and, frankly, Sheffield, are all better candidates. Piazza is certainly as good. And while I wouldn't vote either over Bags, Smoltz and Biggio obviously had tremendous support. So that's 8 legitimately worthy HoFers. And then you have another cluster of worthy candidates in Raines, Mussina, Schilling, Walker... heck, I think you could make a case for Trammell, Kent, McGriff... and I haven't even mentioned McGwire or Sosa.

So... voting in four last year created a lot of room for Bags. I predicted he'd jump as high as 65% this year and be a lock for '17, which would be tremendous one-year leap.

I'll be shocked if he gets in. I don't have the list open but he hasn't received a single anonymous vote that I recall - he still has an issue with a large block of voters who are less progressive/smart/young...

 

As of today, he's received 5 of the 10 posted Anonymous votes on Mr. Tibbs' tracker. He's still holding at 81.5% with over 32% of the votes accounted for. Nathaniel Rakich's Hall of Fame Vote Projections has him projected to finish with 78% and getting in with Griffey and Piazza. He's at 100% of reported new voters. He's also gained 20 new votes from voters that previously didn't vote for him...while losing none.

Bags might still end up out but it will be damn close if so. I'm trying not to get my hopes up and still won't be surprised should he not get in this year. But things are looking good...

 

Really hope Bags gets in this year.

 

Looking at next year's ballot if he doesn't make it, there are 3 new guys that merit consideration:

1) Manny Ramirez - Won't get in due to testing positive for steroids (well a masking agent)
2) Pudge Rodriguez - Will be dogged by accusations that are stronger than Bags/Piazza, as Canseco said he gave Pudge injections.
3) Vladimir Guerrero - For me, he's a HOF, but he won't be a first ballot guy, and may never make it.

With Piazza, Griffey, & Trammel almost guaranteed to fall off the ballot, it won't be getting deeper.

My gut feeling is Bagwell/Hoffman/Raines get elected in 2017.

 

I hope you are correct. All three deserve the nod.

 

Manny Ramirez and Pudge Rodriquez has strong links to PED use. I cannot see anyway a known cheater (Ramirez) gets in and a guy with a lot of circumstantial links (Rodriguez) gets in if Piazza and Bagwell get in.

The only thing that could keep Vlad out is a suspicion of PED's or we start seeing PED guys (Bonds/McGwire/Clemens) voted in suddenly.

 

While I definitely am not a fan of Hoffman as a HOFer, it would take an unheard of stall or backtrack in his votes for him not to make it.

As much as some complained about the rule being changed from 15 years to 10 years of eligibility because its hurts a guy like Raines, I think it actually helps him get in sooner. There is now a sense of urgency.

 

I don't think the first two will merit much consideration at all; in fact, it's likely Ramirez will be one and done, given that he was (IIRC) suspended twice for PEDs. At the very least, he'll be near the bottom of those receiving votes. As a decent corollary, Palmiero lasted three years and never got above 13%.

I suspect Pudge will do better - but his link to PEDs - while ultimately conjecture - is much stronger than Bagwell's. Canseco mentioned personally injecting him, and then he, like Bagwell, had a fairly significant physical transformation and played with a lot of known or suspected PED users (including Caminiti and Palmiero, not to mention Canseco).

I've thought all along Bagwell would get in next year; at this point, assuming his private totals don't absolutely plummet (and they did last year), he should, at very least, be well-poised for '17.

 

75+% of an electorate agreeing that Trevor Hoffman is a HoF'er - on the first ballot, no less - should sincerely render the entire thing irrelevant. That's an absolute joke and, IMO, a much more egregious mistake than Bags not going in his first year. It just reeks of lazy stupidity.