From Quinnipiac University National Poll: American voters shift to Clinton as the Democrat gains ground against Republicans: 47 - 41 percent over Trump, compared to 46 - 43 percent November 4; Clinton at 45 percent to Rubio's 44 percent, compared to a 46 - 41 percent Rubio lead last month; Clinton tops Cruz 47 - 42 percent, compared to Cruz at 46 percent to Clinton's 43 percent last month; Clinton at 46 percent to Carson's 43 percent compared to Carson's 50 - 40 percent lead last month . Sanders does just as well, or even better, against top Republicans: Topping Trump 49 - 41 percent; Getting 44 percent to Rubio's 43 percent; Beating Cruz 49 - 39 percent; Leading Carson 47 - 41 percent.
Yes, because Hillary is so universally loved by everyone. If these two face off, likability will be a wash.
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You're looking through Texas Tea Party colored glasses where Ted/Trump extremism is expected and applauded. You know, the folks that will vote in the GOP primary. Once more mainstream voting America (i.e. independents) gets a gander at Ted/Trump, the less likely he has a chance in any national election. But carry on.
Good news for Cruz... in December 2011, the leading GOP candidate in polling was Newt Gingrich. Oh wait... http://www.gallup.com/poll/151355/gingrich-romney-among-gop-voters-nationwide.aspx
As you requested: Quinnipiac University National Poll - 12/22/15 Clinton 44 Cruz 44 (Tie) Clinton 44 Rubio 43 (+1 Clinton) Clinton 47 Trump 40 (+7 Clinton) Sanders 43 Cruz 44 (+1 Cruz) Sanders 42 Rubio 45 (+3 Rubio) Sanders 51 Trump 38 (+13 Sanders)
That's the point. Hillary's main weakness is her unlikeability. Ted Cruz completely nullifies that. All things equal, demographics give Democrats a win - they've won the popular vote in every Presidential election since 1992 except one (2004) and the demographics tilt more in their favor every cycle. Hillary is very much beatable and one of their least charismatic candidates, but instead of exploiting that, the GOP, in Cruz, would be responding with one of their own.
Nice narrative but he is still a relative unknown and this is his floor. His base is solid and he has room to grow. Get on board the Cruz missile!
they are unlikable in different ways. clinton because she has been involved in about a trillion scandals since the early 90's. plus she is a freakin clinton (do 4 of the last 5 presidents REALLY need to come from 2 families??? cruz because he just seems overall repulsive and a loon. he also seems to like to make a point that he is always the smartest guy in the room. which everyone here knows will not win a lot of friends in florida, ohio, and nevada.
CNN's poll has Trump over Cruz 39% to 18% with Rubio and Carson both at 10%. The Quinnipiac numbers look out of place. http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/12/22/cnnpoll.pdf
Perhaps they are. This is why I was comparing the last Quinnipiac poll to the current one, just to see the differences. These polls just give us our best available measure of momentum at a point in time. As we have seen time and time again over the years, they are not by themselves consistently reliable as predictors. But they are all we have for information right now. The might all be wrong. In any case, they are almost certainly likely to change quite a bit between now and February 1, and beyond.
It's not a "nice narrative", it's a very common trend in elections. Most are relatively unknown prior to their peak, that's not news.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html Cruz 48 Clinton 46 today's CNN/ORC poll Clinton peaked too early
