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A new Public Policy Polling survey shows that Clinton trails Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) by 3 percentage points, 47 percent to 44 percent, and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent, in general election match-ups. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...ll-a-trump-third-party-run-would-help-clinton
The poll was conducted from Dec. 10 to 13 and surveyed 1,426 Iowa voters via phone and Internet. The margin of error was 2.6 points.
So you put stock into a poll about an election nearly a year away, but you ignore that Cruz is trailing Trump nationally by wide margins in an election that starts in less than 2 months?
Cruz is leading Trump in the polls in Iowa, the first state primary election. All the polls will change based on the results of the outcome of that first contest. Trump is not a sure thing to win the Republican nomination. In fact, in the betting markets, Rubio is the favorite, closely followed by Cruz with Trump a good ways back in third. That is people indicating with their money who they think WILL win, not who they want to win. The point of the Cruz vs Clinton poll was to show that this is a winnable contest for Cruz or Rubio (or a number of other Republicans). Anyone who thinks that Hillary Clinton has this in the bag "nearly a year out" as you say, is a knee-jerk partisan tool. Hopefully, that does not describe you.
You are aware that Iowa is a caucus, not a primary election? That New Hampshire has the first primary election? And Trump is way ahead of Cruz (and Rubio, for that matter) in New Hampshire? And that Ron Paul was the big winner in the 2012 Iowa Caucus?
Iowa is going to launch Cruz straight into the air off of the eastern seaboard and send out all kinds of electromagnetic pulses that will forever change the election.
Clinton 45, Cruz 45 (Tie) Rubio 45, Clinton 43 (Rubio +2) http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...mps-cruz-climbs-carson-sinks-in-gop-race.html This poll is national, by the way.
But Mojo, what is happening in Michigan? You always get so fired up around these elections. I think there are better uses of time. Unless you're an oligarch, you really won't affect the outcome.
This stuff worked out so well for you last time around. http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=7257408&postcount=2499 http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=7266288&postcount=2798
Ted Cruz continues to solidify his lead in Iowa, now commanding 40% in the latest CBS poll, although that is well higher than any other poll before this one, and may yet come to be regarded as an outlier. Donald Trump also increased his numbers to 31% in this poll. In the RealClearPolitics Iowa poll average, Cruz has 30% to Trump's 26. Also noteworthy, Cruz is now in second position in New Hampshire behind Trump, which would be an extraordinary showing for him in this moderate Northeastern state. If Marco Rubio finishes behind Cruz in New Hampshire, that will likely be a big blow to his chances to win the Republican nomination. However, if Cruz actually expects to win, he will have to improve his position in South Carolina, where Trump is currently showing ahead of Cruz by 38-23. Cruz is currently traveling through the South to shore up his campaign in advance of not only the South Carolina primary on February 20, but the "SEC Primary" on Super-Tuesday, March 1. If Cruz can pull out a win in South Carolina over Trump, then it will indeed by time for everybody to "watch out" as Ted Cruz "makes his move".
LOL @ Cruz. The dude will say anything to get elected... Just another Obama-type candidate who knows how to talk.
I think it's ironic that Republicans deride Sanders for his "European-style politics" when the Republican Party is offering American versions of Oliver Cromwell and Sivio Berlusconi as their candidates.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>New Q poll has Cruz only 4 points behind Trump nationally. <a href="https://t.co/pJFCv6oP0q" title="http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2311">quinnipiac.edu/news-and-event…</a></p>— Jimmy (@JimmyPrinceton) <a href="https://twitter.com/JimmyPrinceton/status/679261838840872964" data-datetime="2015-12-22T11:26:57+00:00">December 22, 2015</a></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
So: Trump 28, Cruz 24, Rubio 12, Carson 10, Christie 6, Bush 4. Several observations about this. For reference, here is the RealClearPolitics poll average, which includes the totals from earlier polls further down the page. First, Trump continues to hold basically steady, as his previous Quinnipiac Poll (11/30) number was 27%. Trump appears to have pretty much topped out. Second, Cruz is up 8% (50%) to 24% since the last Quinnipiac poll. Carson is down to 10%, which is the source of Cruz's improvement. Also, that remaining 10% is a reservoir from which Cruz could conceivable vault into the national lead, as Carson does not currently appear to have much staying power. Third, Marco Rubio is down 5% from the last Quinnipiac poll and is now a full 6% behind Cruz in the RCP poll average for this race (Cruz 18, Rubio 12). This is not the time for Rubio to be going in reverse if he wants to win. He has appeared somewhat disengaged, as he missed another very important vote in the Senate last week. Also, Cruz's line of attack on Rubio's immigration record appears to have drawn blood. Fourth, Chris Christie has moved into fifth place ahead of Jeb Bush. This is noteworthy because Christie is a moderate/establishment candidate in the same "lane" as Bush and Kasich. Kasich appears to be this year's John Huntsman, and he is wasting his time. Bush appears to have lost the confidence of the establishment and it is very hard to imagine him recovering at the point. Meanwhile, the more conservative leaning establishment option, Marco Rubio that the Republican establishment types were supposedly ready to support in lieu of Bush is losing ground. Christie's improvement in the polls appears to have been achieved in part at Marco Rubio's expense. If someone wanted to be the one to start a thread on a candidate just before they take off and do surprisingly well over the next couple of months, Chris Christie appears like he is the candidate in the best position to do that. The Republican establishment needs someone to get behind. Their other options are not looking good. And the only reason not to get behind Christie, because he is regarded by some as "politically incorrect" because of a traffic jam that some of his staff instigated in New Jersey, is positively r****ded, especially when compared to the rap sheet of Hillary Clinton. Also, the PC crap is not in vogue with Republicans and Chris Christie really is a very strong candidate, as he has a healthy amount of the Trump bombast (and he had it before Trump did), he is smart on the issues, and he has the most impressive record of executive, bipartisan accomplish of any candidate in the race, bar none. Don't be surprised at this stage if you see Chris Christie make his move.
