Kind of a side note, but people will also need to realize that whatever happens to Appel in Philly is necessarily comparable to what would happen here. Philly can afford to call him up before he is ready. Philly can afford to let him take his lumps and try to figure things out. Next year (and hopefully for the foreseeable future) we will not be in a position to let a guy grow on the job. Especially one who would have been scrutinized as much as Appel. For a guy who has self-admittedly been mentally weak as a pro, our success created a REALLY bad fit for his future development. Being the #5 starter on a last place team is probably the best thing that could have ever happened to Appel.
Agreed. Appel right now looks a lot like Luke Hochevar. Hochevar was picked first overall in 2006 (after being a comp round pick in 2005 but coming back for a senior year). He was pretty mediocre in the minors, posting a 5ish ERA in 2007 across AA and AAA before being a September callup that year. He then bounced in 2008, throwing 100+ MLB innings (e.g., equivalent to Appel pitching in the majors this past year), but shuttled back and forth for the next couple of years. They converted him to a reliever in 2013 with pretty good results. He missed 2014 with Tommy John, and was just ok in 2015 (though likely still recovering). Appel has better stuff than Hochevar, but he wouldn't be the first college senior drafted #1 overall to struggle.
Yeah, they really are... I randomly Googled "top 100 prospects of 2009" (why 2009? No idea; just popped in my head...) - here's the top 20. Colby Rasmus is #3. (Dexter Fowler is on there, too.) There's a lot of average-to-below-average Major Leaguers on that list - and, again, this is the top 20. Granted, between Price, Bumgarner, Posey, Heyward and Stanton, there are some major hits. But it speaks to the unpredictability of prospects.
LOL! There is risk, but that is not a shot in the dark! How many MLB teams have less MLB talent than that top 20 list? Edit....Looking at that list further, Baseball America took 20 shots in the dark out of thousands of prospects and picked 20 players that had a combined value of a 91 win (fWaR plus replacement) team last year. 6 MLB teams did better last year.
I'm not sure if this is the best resource, but I think people need to or would benefit from looking at this list of top Astros prospects, with their bios: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015/#list=hou Let's raise the overall knowledge on this board regarding the Astros system and resources. 1. Dealing Appel and VV was not cheap, but the cost is relative to what you have in the system and how many prospects you can put on your roster. For us, Feliz and Martez are both strong pitching prospects with mid/front end of rotation potential. "Spending" Appel and VV to land Giles is less costly in the sense of depleting the farm system. We are trying to win now, which means the window of focus is the next 3 or so years. In that timeframe (and beyond), our existing SPs are still young, on the upswing, and under club control, and we are really talking about whether our pitching prospects can push into the 5th or 4th rotation spots. One can easily argue that Feliz and Martez fill that role of high potential prospect as well as Appel and VV. 2. The overwhelming likelihood is that Giles will make much more of a difference on the MLB roster than VV or Appel would have this year, and likely the next three years if Giles pitches like a top 5 or top 10 closer. 3. What we will never know is the opportunity cost. In other words, what else could Luhnow have landed by using VV, Appel, Obie? If you want to criticize this deal, this is a potential legitimate basis to criticize. But let's look at he available information. Chapman had off field issues and Cincys GM might not have been willing to dance with Luhnow. Was Miller available? Reports are that Luhnow worked on a Miller deal and turns to Giles once the Mikler talks stalled. Could we have packaged them for a 1B or 3B upgrade like Frazier or Freeman, who would also be difference makers? Those are reasonable questions to ask. I just question the intellect and logic of those who say (1) we overpaid, (2) we should have just let VV or Appel close, (3) Appel was too valuable to include but is a draft pick bust. Are we or are we not trying to win at the MLB level now? It seemed that most people "felt" fine with the Giles deal when it was Fisher, not Appel. I "felt" we robbed Philly with Fisher in the deal. The logic behind these feelings is fairly questionable considering their prospect status and performance in the minors. So much of the angst behind the Giles deal is Appel being a No 1 pick, and the inability to reconcile his prospect / trade value with his No 1 pick status. Ultimately I think (and "feel") this was a good trade for both sides. Good for us for the reasons above. And Philly is exactly the type of team to swing for the fences, ignore the minor league performance, and hope that Appel pitches to his draft status. This is like Morey taking a flyer on 2009 draft busts -- Thabeet, Flynn, Hill, Williams.
So now you've gone from saying they gave too much to wishing they had given up too much last year? Their bullpen was much better in July 2014 than it was today and thus a closer was less of a pressing need than the other gaps they filled, though they still did want one. They also had less data on Appel and VV to evaluate, and none of the relievers available at the trade deadline came with 5 years of control (thus, they were worth less). If you think an ace reliever last year was the difference between what they did and a WS title, it's kind of weird you'd want them to just hope and pray that VV or Appel could be that player this year.
Good post. And anybody who makes this particular complaint is brain dead, and there's no use in attempting to explain to them why.
Are you upset that I don't like the trade, and don't agree with you! Is your 30,000 post ideology being questioned? You must be smart! Intellectual comfort should not come at the cost of freedom of speech!!
This is always the most valid point to any deal. For example, the Astros gave up Buchholz, Hirsh and Taveras to the Rockies for Jennings. Jennings was terrible, but in the grand scheme of things, giving up those 3 did not hurt the team except for what they probably could have turned them into instead of Jennings. They also gave up a boatload for Tejada. It seemed that the inclusion of Patton, Safarte and Costanzo was lamented, yet those three never did much. Luke Scott had a couple of nice years as did Albers. Again, with those guys, they probably could have done much better than Tejada. In essence they lost depth which could have been better used as 'assets', but they didn't lose anyone who would have provided much to the actual Astros MLB team had they played for Houston (based on their performance on other team - we do not know if that performance would have been the same in Houston).
Yes, risk is the point... maybe "shot in the dark" didn't properly convey my thinking - but, generally, there's no way to predict success/failure for prospects - even good ones. But the general reaction to any trade of them leads to this very concrete idea that we definitely traded away great players. What the Astros essentially did was deal unknown quantities for a known quantity; a young, cheap quantity, no less. People need to stop freaking out about prospects.
I'm annoyed that you're polluting an otherwise useful forum with nonsensical posts that all contradict each other. Do you purposely try to change the subject everytime people point out your logical fallacies in each new post? Freedom of speech works best when the speech actually is coherent. At least you accept that you're more interested in your right to speech than actually having intellectual discussions.
Uhm, Tommy Hanson is dead. He was #4. Remove the obvious home runs (Price, Heyward, Bumgarner, Posey, Stanton) and you're left with a list of average, at best, Major Leaguers - which is not a waste, by amy stretch. I mean, Colby Rasmus can obviously contribute at the Major League level. But no one in their right mind would say he's lived up to his #3 potential.
Truth be told, none of us like to be disagreed upon, but it happens folks. Even to the Clutchfan establishment resident posters. My conclusion, for those of you who are hard-headed and mad that I don't agree with this trade: I thought that Appel had a lot of value, and the Astros were working with him to upgrade his arsenal. They didn't call him up sooner to avoid starting his FA clock. I thought they'd bring him up this spring training as the # 5 starter. I didn't know the inner workings of the FO, and they had their ideology of him. After all they have all the facts, beyond the numbers you find on baseball-reference. Did the like Appel, or not. And how they rated him????? Who initiated the switch from Fisher to Appel? Was it the Astros or the Phillies? These are thing we don't know. The deal that happened on Saturday could have happened last season near the trade deadline. Irrelevant if I approved of it or not. But Giles wasn't on the radar last season. It was a host of other more expensive closer/relievers. Crane probably looked at the cost saving of going with Giles who will be paid practically ML minimum wage for the next two seasons, while other top end closers are getting 10-12 million a year. So we are looking at a 20-24 million dollar savings with Giles as the Closer/setup man. Did the Phillies balk at the trade with Fisher and the Astros needed the cheap reliever so bad they gave up a highly thought of Appel (again just assertions, no facts) And if this package would have been shipped out last season, depending on the return, I'd of been either happy or disappointed. And your assertion of my intellect by you (and others like you) points to the various factors at play, which are confusing. Because the known factors are truthfully confusing, if you don't know all the facts (Do the Astros think they sold high or low, was it about money, was it about personalities, was it due to impatience, etc.). Which leads to me my logical conclusion that Luhnow got fleeced on the talent (does he care, nope, but you do!!!). But, why do I keep replying to people like you, it's because this board represents something, an outlet for fans. People like you want to take it personal, and I see you get mad when other fellow posters show their disapproval of the trade. But "vince", is the name you like because we fans are challenging the Kool-Aid that Houston GM's have been spewing. On another topic, we may agree, but not on this one. Let's just keep the topics above the belt guys and gals.
There is no changing the subject. You ask each question and I will address it. If you are so superior intellectually, then ask the questions point blank. And I'm not just talking to you I am talking to a whole bunch of you. Everyone is making a different question. I didn't like the trade, so someone makes an assetion about Luhnow saving this franchise, blah blah blah..... You take the charge Major. You start asking your questions! And ask point blank questions. There is no confusion in me, but I am utterly confused by the trade Jeff Luhnow just made. I stand for what I stand. But, you keep attacking my intelligence. But, truth be told, I don't mind having this conversation, so if you want at it, keep 'em coming.
5 possible Hall of Famers from a list of 20? Productive players like Wieters, Rasmus, Anderson, Moustakas, Fowler and Escobar? That list would make me want to never trade a top 20 prospect.
Here is a point blank question for you. If you had your choice to retroactively replace 1 roster spot for game 6 against the Royals would you: A) Replace any starting pitcher with Appel, VV, or Obie. B) Replace any relief pitcher with Giles Point blank, IMO, if we have Giles to bring into inning 8 of that game, we advance to the ALCS. Adding VV, Appel or Obie would not have made one difference. We are trying to WIN NOW, not have a surplus of talent that we can't get onto the field. It's a good problem to have. Giles is arguably the best closer in the game, and we just got him with many years of control left, AND WE DIDN'T HAVE TO DEAL AJ REED TO DO SO. Enjoy that.
