When Cruz Makes His Move, Watch Out

Thanks for attempting to answer my question.

I'm certainly not "advocating" for a splintered, do-nothing Congress. Perhaps I've just become more cynical about the degree of "change" that's possible at all with a bifurcated, gerrymandered-to-hell, beholden-to-the-highest-dollar legislative body. Americans always hate "Congress," but don't mind their own Congressman. That criticism is cliche at this point. Combine that with our goldfish-like attention span and you have an electorate that, despite all evidence to the contrary, electing the only opposition party will magically erase decades of precedent.

American obstructionism is cyclical and, if a Republican wins the presidency, it'll be the primary tactic of Congressional Democrats. The interesting wrinkle in this is what will happen if Cruz is elected since so many of his fellow Republicans openly dislike him. Despite being a popular conservative meme, President Obama's time in office has shown us how the presidency is not a dictatorship and some level of Congressional cooperation is necessary to enact an agenda. If Cruz were to become president and face not only an intransigent Democratic Congressional bloc, but also a faction of Republicans that loathe him, he'll be hard-pressed to accomplish any of the grand things he's promising on the campaign trail.

 

Do you really believe this? The "Democratic left" didn't suggest that running as a moderate wins; history has shown that appealing to the widest swath of voters is what wins elections. Whenever either party has run an ideologically extreme candidate (Barry Goldwater, George McGovern) they've been clobbered in national elections.

What about the election demographics of 2008 and 2012 make you think that running an ideologically-fervent conservative will appeal to a majority of American voters?

 

I don't see it that way. Cruz is a first term Senator but he's already a power player in Congress. He's done that by being a hyper-aggressive a-hole. The swing voter who put Clinton, Bush, and Obama in the presidency will see that as power. Of everyone in this race, Cruz has more of an It factor than anyone since Obama (though probably not as much as Obama had), and he gets it honestly by swinging his dick around and being a sociopath. People will vote for him because he projects power and people will feel confident that he will be strong and effective. When people are picking people to lead them, they respond to strong leadership qualities, which Cruz has. Even I am confident he would be a strong president -- I just think he'll be effective in moving us in the direction opposite to where I want to go.

I don't think Cruz will stop being combative with Congress. But, I do think Congressional Republicans will get in line. He's hated by other Congressional Republicans because he essentially aggrandized himself at their expense. Instead of deferring and considering the party, he did whatever would be most effective in showing the voting public that he was the alpha male of the Senate. Even with his failures, it worked: he's a one-term Senator, and already one of the most famous. It was great for him, but by pushing too too hard, he's hurt other Congressmen in achieving what they want.

Once he's president though, he'll be steering hard to the right and the Congressional Republicans will be doing everything they can to enable him for the 2 years they have left. They'll probably lose seats in midterms, so they need to pass as much stuff as possible before then. They don't disagree with the things Cruz will want to do, they just didn't like his tactics. They probably won't like his presidential tactics either, but they'll go along because so many things they want could be done.

 

Huh? People that voted for Clinton and Obama would vote for Cruz because he appears "strong"??? They'll ignore his extreme political positions and support him?

I guess people like Putin, Gaddafi, Mussolini, Hitler, etc would really attarct those votes... they all appeared "strong".

How much farther to the right could Cruz swing? *shudder*

 

I think you are dead wrong. The environment during the general election will be completely different than what it is during the GOP primary.

Angry conservatives who won't take it any more just don't win general elections. Unless Cruz can magically morph from a grenade thrower to a leader and consensus builder, he will be trampled by Hillary Inc.

The notion swing voters will vote for Cruz because he "projects power" is laughable. Doesn't quite work that way. I also think you completely misread how swing voters interpret leadership qualities.

Don't get caught up in the moment. What works now in the primary will NOT work next Aug/Sep/Oct/Nov. The atmosphere will be totally different.

Lastly, we have yet to see how Cruz handles being the perceived front-runner. It's very possible he falls down the stairs. The press and the Dems will start trawling his past for every scrap and he'll get "smacked with a bat" quite a few times the next few months. We'll see.

I'm starting to enjoy the Republican show again now that Carson is basically dead/buried and Trump is on the way down.

 

Interesting analysis, though I think once the bright light gets turned on him it will not be too difficult for swing voters to recognize his extremism as counterproductively dangerous. Especially once the Democratic machine cranks up the attack. At present, the clown show is doing their own demolition job for the Dems. There will be a treasure trove of sound bites to use against him. Many from the very videos that Commodore posts here in his support.

 

Do you see any of that "powerful a-hole" in Clinton, Bush, and Obama? All were congenial "nice guys". People seem to want from a president what they used to want from a nightly news anchor.

I agree that being an a-hole is what made Ted his name in Congress, which I see sort of as his conundrum, because I don't think that wins him the Presidency in the general election.

At this point I see Rubio as the best candidate in the general election.

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/nbc-poll-clinton-would-trounce-trump-lose-rubio-carson-n478676

 

Yeah, that was truly one of JV's stranger posts. He's usually pretty logical, but I don't think people see Cruz as strong. sociopath? definitely. creepy? and how. slimy? The slimiest.

Again, that's coming from very conservative, Texan older white family members. Fox News Entertainment devotees all.

My liberal pals in California don't even really know who he is yet.

 

I meant more that Cruz has an It-factor the way those guys did. How each of them got it is different, I think.

Well, that's quite possible, and probably inevitable. I'm sure I'm wrong at least in some ways. But, when I see the Democrats here celebrating prematurely about the inevitable defeat of the clown show, I shudder. Yeah, it's a clown show, but have you seen how the electorate has behaved in the past? I'm not saying Cruz will win, but I think many Democrats are underestimating their opponents (or giving voters too much credit). This is going to be close. Democrats don't have an incumbent to run, and they don't have Obama (I'm sure the conservatives here will guffaw at that one).

Are you suggesting that voters are going to consider rational arguments about public policy over primal instincts of dominance and submission and of power? If they do, it'll be the first such election ever.

I'm sure Cruz will 'move to the center' in the general if he wins the primary, just like every other politician does. Voters will keep that visceral impression of power that he has cultivated, and will happily supplant Cruz's earlier crazy talk with the more recent, more reasonable policy positions he will circulate for them. Cruz just needs to provide enough material for a person's rational mind to make up rationally defensible reasons that it should vote the way it wants to. That's part of why Trump isn't a 'serious' candidate -- he's like political p*rn, straight appeal to one's base desires without plausible deniability, while Cruz can call his p*rn 'art' by crafting a reasoned (if not reasonable) argument to go with it.

So yeah, I don't think his extreme views are going to be very problematic. And, in the same way Hitler, Mussolini, et al were able to become quite popular despite their extreme views. I'd say that's exactly where I'd take my historical lesson. They went around acting like they knew what they were talking about, had the courage of their convictions to act, projected strength, and enough people deferred (or cowered) as a result and gave them the latitude to lead.

But yeah, I could be wrong. We'll see. I've been saying for a long time here that I had a sinking feeling that Cruz was going to win. I really don't want to be right about that one.

 

C'mon! I've had some doozies!

 

thx for the thought out post JV. But if it weren't for Trump, I think Cruz would be the nutter with an early chance this yr. I don't think he'll survive once people start paying attention.

I do think you're right that Hillary is no Obama. She just doesn't garner the same love -- so there's vulnerability there, but I'm not yet convinced there's someone strong enough in the GOP to defeat her. No moderate with charisma, and no hard liner with greater appeal. So far anyways.

 

What does the countdown clock look like for Cruz's "move"?

 

This premature anointing of Cruz reminds me of the hype for Rick Perry 4 years ago, another conservative guy from Texas who supposedly had a clear path to the nomination.

We don't even know yet how he will behave and handle being a front-runner. Other GOP candidates aren't going to lay down for the guy once Trump flames out. Getting to the front doesn't mean Cruz will stay there and win. Things will get bumpy for him.

 

It's reality... What has been Cruzs top/key legislation since he became a senator?

 

I wonder if Cruz would pander to failed companies and failed regimes like he is doing for failed Scott Walker. Telling.

 

You mean like Obama to General Motors and Cuba?

*pwn3d*