Yea I agree with this 100%. We will likely sign another starter (Kazmir) for this year. We still have great arms in the system and most are at least a year away, which is more likely when we will be needing them Philly for a nice haul. We got a dominant arm for the back of the pen for a run at a title. Nice deal for both sides
I just looked up the odds to win the AL pennant next year. The Astros and Red Sox are tied for the best odds, at 6:1.
I think signing Kazmir could be a huge difference maker for 2016. A lot is obviously being made of how "terrible" his second half was the last two years. Well last year, what really ruined him was his last three starts where he gave up 15 runs in 11.6 innings. Leading up to those three starts he gave up 2, 4, 2, 3, 1 earned runs in the previous 5 starts. His second half era was 3.86, not an "ace" type of era obviously, but not terrible. And that includes the 3 horrible starts to end the year. Before those last 3 starts of the year, his second half era was sitting at 2.57! Yes, those three starts happened, and at a bad time. But to put more emphasis on those starts than the overall picture doesn't do justice to what the guy can bring. A lot of the talk about he is only good for 20 starts comes from the fact he had a really bad second half in 2014 and then the poor end to the year last year. Now in 2014 his first half/second half splits were much worse than 2015 at 2.38/5.42...but through his career he had more years where he was much better after the break than before, and that includes 2013 so you don't have to go back to the pre-injury "out of mlb" years to find when that happened. It seems like Kazmir should be in his mid to upper 30's also, probably because he was dominanat and then went away for a couple of years before coming back successfully. But the guy is only 31 years old. I'm not saying he should get front of the rotation money for 6 years or anything crazy. But signing this guy to a good 3 years contract could really put us in a great place rotation wise.
I don't mind them bringing back Kazmir but will say I always felt nervous whenever he was on the mound just like how I felt with Neshek and Qualls. Thought the trade was a steal after his first start vs. KC, and then it became a nightmare.
His control got visibly worse later in the year, it wasn't hard to see why he was getting hit. The pitcher that we saw in the first few starts was way he pitched for the first 20 starts. I'm not sure why he appears to be hitting a wall, but he has, twice. And the timing of the collapse has been virtually identical 2 straight years. I would love to have him back, but only for 20-25 starts. I wouldn't worry about managing his innings, just start him less.
If Luhnow feels that way, he won't spend the necessary money it will take to sign him If velocity or "stuff" got considerably worse after 20 starts that is one thing, if not then can't assume it happens like that again I'll trust they have much more data on him than we do
A pitcher who can post and ERA in the mid 2's commands 25-30 million dollars a year now. If you have a pitcher that can post and ERA in the mid 2's, but only for 2/3 of the season, I would see no problem in giving him 15 million dollars or so, I don't think Luhnow will either.
This. Even with all the recent activity, the Astros have the depth to limit Kazmir to 25 starts. Last year they were very close to going to a 6 man staff.
Cueto: 5 years $130 million Or Kazmir: 3 years $50 million That's about what both will end up signing for. Which would y'all prefer for Houston? I think I lean toward Kazmir. Less years and money, which keeps you flexible.
I just seriously doubt that Luhnow thinks Kazmir can only start 20 games, and if he does then I doubt we sign him
Agree with the first part. On the second part, it would depend on money, other options, Kazmir's willingness to play around limitations, etc.
http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastro...stros-now-searching-for-a-starter-or-big-bat/ “I think we’re going to look at either bringing in another pitcher for the rotation or a bat of some sort,” general manager Jeff Luhnow said Saturday. Perhaps I am reading this too literally, but either or? Were in essence adding one more guy and thats it?
We need to get Cueto. We are in win now mode, so it only makes sense to strike a deal. He would feasibly come off the books as our big guns hit FA.
There's not a lot of needs on this roster as is. If they can bring Kazmir back then the team will be looking great for next year, would like for them to try and add a bat as well.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is gonna be the first $2 billion winter for MLB. The amazing Class of 2018 could damn near double that. Column: <a href="https://t.co/Q6juVf3HGL">https://t.co/Q6juVf3HGL</a></p>— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/675545682380386304">December 12, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Free agent Class of 2018 includes: Harper, Donaldson, McCutchen, Machado, Price, Heyward, Kershaw, Fernandez, Harvey, Keuchel, Sale ...</p>— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/675544460046950400">December 12, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">A. Jones, Brantley, Richards, D. Gordon, Pollock, Wainwright, Corbin, S. Miller, Kimbrel, Britton, A. Miller, Dozier, Cruz, Pence, Yadi ...</p>— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/675544548165087232">December 12, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Rosenthal, Blackmon, Familia, Rondon, A-Gon, Grandal, Smyly, Robertson, Herrera, Mauer, Ramos, Capps, Iglesias, Gattis, Happ and many more.</p>— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/675544625306701824">December 12, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> I understand the win-now urgency, but financial flexibility is more important now than ever. It may not be a popular opinion, but I'd rather skip out on the big names from this FA class, with bigger eyes on the 2017 and 2018 classes. I'm not in love with any of the FA options out there at this point. Spending just to spend doesn't seem like a prudent or winning strategy. I don't think we should spend crazy dollars for Cueto just to do it. Cueto showed large signs of regression as the year unfolded. That regression was alarming. Do you really want to invest 150MM+ in him just to spend for the heck of it? I'd rather wait for a better player. That said, I understand the urge to just sign a player of his quality right now.
I would say it is EITHER one most likely. They will probably make a move at the deadline as well. They are not the Cubs, I cannot see them adding like that.
I'd rather fill as many spots internally. SP makes the most sense. Reed, White & Singleton should compete for 1B. Valbuena, Duffy, Moran, Davis should compete for 3B/Reserve IF spot
