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When Cruz Makes His Move, Watch Out

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by MojoMan, Nov 24, 2015.

  1. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    Creative approach. But a bad product is a bad product, however much you want to overcome it with slick ads. Great for Cruz fanboy though.

    I wonder if Cruz does stand a real chance of becoming the GOP nominee. He might be in the sweet spot between super crazy and moderate. You think the the super crazy will eventually fall out. And when that happen, what's the chance that the GOP will nominate a moderate candidate? They have gone so far to the extreme that candidate like Cruz now looks more likely to be nominated than ever.
     
  2. Major

    Major Member

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    His chances are much higher thanks to Trump being in the race. That has allowed him to present himself as the "electable conservative" compared to Trump. Without him, Cruz is the one that everyone thinks is the crazy one and who the establishment is trying to stop.

    He's really positioned himself well if Trump falters. He already took a chunk of the Carson vote, propelling him past Rubio. He'll likely get a good chunk of the Trump vote if the opportunity arises. The big question for Trump is whether he can get any of the 65% that aren't picking him to ever support him.
     
  3. Commodore

    Commodore Member

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    by all means, please use Gawker not liking Ted Cruz as a case against him
     
  4. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    65% as referring to the GOP as a whole or as likely voters? The primaries voters tend to be politically engaged and have stronger ideology. Even though the GOP as a whole hasn't gone crazy, the extreme wing of it is much more likely to be voters in the primaries, increasing the chance of choosing an extreme candidate. For this very reason, GOP candidates have shifted much to the right.
     
  5. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    No one like Ted Cruz.
     
  6. Commodore

    Commodore Member

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  7. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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  8. tallanvor

    tallanvor Member

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  9. Dubious

    Dubious Member

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    democratic socialist... a pretty important distinction that flies over most Americans head.

    I wouldn't be surprises if the backroom GOP didn't let Cruz become their sacrificial lamb seeing as how there is no remotely electable candidates available. 1. they do not like him, might as well let him expend the effort campaigning and lose 2. he articulates a his positions with skillful rhetoric and debate techniques that slide by casual listeners as reason, it's a lot harder to ferret out the crazy than a Trump
     
  10. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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  11. Major

    Major Member

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    Sorry - the 65% of the polled "likely voters". Trump is dominating, but he's topped out so far at 35%. The question is whether the other 65% will go towards him as candidates drop out, or if they all go to a Cruz or Rubio type. Trump isn't really "to the right" - he's just in his own little orbit and pulling anti-establishment votes from all different demographic groups. His supporters cross the political spectrum of the GOP, but it's unclear if Cruz or Rubio drops out, if those voters would go to Trump or not.

    Because of the primary rules, no one's going to run away with the delegates early, so you might have a lot of split stuff with the 35-20-20 type 3-way race. But the winner's ultimately going to need 50% in the latter states.
     
  12. Amiga

    Amiga Member

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    Got it.

    No, Trump himself isn't to the right. He's all over the map with his policies, even having quite a few very liberal positions, but one thing is clear with him. He portrait hatred and anger and that is what, I assume and believe is pulling in the extreme right.
     
  13. bobmarley

    bobmarley Member

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    Ted Cruz: Why They Hate Him

    http://thebullelephant.com/ted-cruz-why-they-hate-him/

    Fear plus helplessness equals hate.
     
  14. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    Ted Cruz jumps out to a 10 point lead in Iowa in the most recent Des Moines Register poll:

    Cruz 31
    Trump 21
    Carson 13
    Rubio 10
    Bush 6

     
  15. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    John Podesta, Hillary Clinton's campaign chair is predicting Ted Cruz to be the most likely to win the Republican nomination for president, followed by Donald Trump and Marco Rubio.
     
  16. FranchiseBlade

    Supporting Member

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    awesome news for Democrats if it turns out this way
     
  17. MojoMan

    MojoMan Member

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    As long as Hillary Clinton is not the Democrat's nominee, you could be right.
     
  18. bobmarley

    bobmarley Member

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    Democrats think it will be awesome news no matter who wins the nomination.

    And after Cruz wins the Presidency they still will think it is awesome news, because they parrot what talking heads tell them.
     
  19. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    The swing to Cruz away from Trump is not surprising at all to me. However, for Cruz to jump from 10% to 31% in just 2 months is pretty crazy. Then again, considering the guys previously in front of him were very perishable, maybe this magnitude of a swing isn't so weird. If Cruz doesn't implode, Iowa is his. IMO, none of the other candidates are likely to make a strong move in Iowa before the caucuses.
     
  20. HayesStreet

    HayesStreet Member

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