I think Hinkie's doing alright. I think they can really start seeing the fruit of their work next season. They'll have another good pick of their own, a good pick from the Lakers, and Saric might come over. Adding 3 lotto guys to Okafor and Noel should look pretty good. Noel is a bit disappointing, but they traded Jrue for him, and that looks like fair value for what they paid. They really slowed the timeline when they essentially put Michael Carter Williams back in the hopper for more draft picks. But, when the Lakers pay out, it should be very good. I wonder if he slowed the timeline on purpose to get ready for the big salary cap hike. Embiid is looking like a lost gamble. Looking at the draft class with the benefit of hindsight, it's hard to say the gamble was ill-advised though. The guys drafted after him aren't exactly tearing up the league. Still, even a pedestrian pick is better than a guy with a permanently broken foot. And Okafor is looking good. I don't sweat the character issue whatevers. Sounds more like he's a dumb kid, than that he's ill-willed or doesn't play well with others. I do think Hinkie's tanking excesses do hurt, not because of relationships with other teams or media or fans, but for credibility with players. The strategy focuses so strongly on the lotto picks that they basically forsake free agency as a channel to get better. I think that's fixable once they pivot on their strategy and start getting better. But, they probably won't be able to convince a FA to come until they show a tangibly good season -- which will mean it's on these young rookie-scale guys drafted into a losing culture to turn it around and make it a winning team without significant help from imported veterans. That'll be a tough trick. Especially to do it before those rookie contracts start expiring and they're free to go. And maybe that's the idea. Maybe Hinkie is the fall guy for the tank job like John Weisbrod was Orlando's fall guy for the McGrady trade. Maybe once the lotto picks are in place, Hinkie will go back to being an assistant and some other GM can come into a good situation with a lot of lotto players without the taint of having tanked to get there. But, I hope that's not the case. Hinkie had to go through all the losses, so he should have a chance to see it through.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This. Wrote it last week: Hinkie hasn't lost a trade. If critics have ammo, it's free agency/salary floor <a href="https://t.co/u75calAAdM">https://t.co/u75calAAdM</a></p>— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/ZachLowe_NBA/status/674309412971028480">December 8, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
I think he's right. Here's Hinkie's transactions (spoilered in case nobody wants to go through this) with my layman's evaluation of adding value or losing value Spoiler June 27, 2013: Selected Michael Carter-Williams (1st round, 11th pick), Glen Rice (2nd round, 35th pick) and Pierre Jackson (2nd round, 42nd pick) in the 2013 NBA Draft. Drafted a ROY with the 11th pick. Clearly a smart move. June 27, 2013: Traded Glen Rice to the Washington Wizards for Arsalan Kazemi and Nate Wolters. Shifting deck chairs July 12, 2013: Traded Jrue Holiday and Pierre Jackson to the New Orleans Pelicans for Nerlens Noel and a 2014 1st round draft pick. Traded a middle-of-the road PG on a dead end team for a prospect who still hasn't reached his full potential and another pick which became Elfriid Payton. Home run transaction July 13, 2013: Traded a future draft pick to the Houston Rockets for Furkan Aldemir, Royce White and cash. Shifting deck chairs, the pick held some minimal value, and we all know how White turned out. Aldemir was a calculated risk and honestly wasn't that bad July 15, 2013: Signed James Anderson as a free agent. Shifting deck chairs July 15, 2013: Signed Tim Ohlbrecht as a free agent. Shifting deck chairs August 14, 2013: Hired Brett Brown as Head Coach. Can't judge a coach if he doesn't have the personnel. He's certainly no Brad Stevens but he's likely not as bad as Byron Scott or Randy Wittman August 22, 2013: Traded a 2014 2nd round draft pick to the Memphis Grizzlies for Tony Wroten. (Pick is top 50 protected.) Amazing value for a PG who is getting significant minutes September 28, 2013: Signed Solomon Alabi as a free agent. October 5, 2013: Signed Gani Lawal as a free agent. October 16, 2013: Signed Daniel Orton as a free agent. November 20, 2013: Signed Elliot Williams as a free agent. November 20, 2013: Signed Lorenzo Brown as a free agent. January 14, 2014: Signed Dewayne Dedmon to a 10-day contract. January 24, 2014: Signed Dewayne Dedmon to a 10-day contract. Shifting deck chairs on all the above February 20, 2014: As part of a 3-team trade, the Philadelphia 76ers traded a 2014 2nd round draft pick to the Washington Wizards; the Denver Nuggets traded a 2016 2nd round draft pick to the Philadelphia 76ers; the Denver Nuggets traded Andre Miller to the Washington Wizards; the Washington Wizards traded Jan Vesely to the Denver Nuggets; and the Washington Wizards traded Eric Maynor and a 2015 2nd round draft pick to the Philadelphia 76ers. (Pick is protected.) Traded one higher 2nd rounder for two lower ones and a possible rotation PG, added value February 20, 2014: Traded Spencer Hawes to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Earl Clark, Henry Sims, a 2014 2nd round draft pick and a 2014 2nd round draft pick. Traded a middle-of-the-road center who would impede the growth of younger bigs for picks and prospects. Added value February 20, 2014: Traded Lavoy Allen and Evan Turner to the Indiana Pacers for Danny Granger and a 2015 2nd round draft pick. Traded a prospect big and an overpriced wing for expiring salary and a 2nd round draft pick. Neutral value February 20, 2014: Traded a future 2nd round draft pick to the Los Angeles Clippers for Byron Mullens. (Pick is conditional.) Traded a useless pick for a 3 point shooting big who couldn't move the needle in LA. Added value March 1, 2014: Signed Jarvis Varnado to a 10-day contract. March 12, 2014: Signed Jarvis Vanado to a contract for the rest of the season. March 14, 2014: Signed Darius Johnson-Odom to a 10-day contract. March 17, 2014: Signed James Nunnally to a 10-day contract. March 24, 2014: Signed Casper Ware to a 10-day contract. April 7, 2014: Signed Adonis Thomas to a 10-day contract. Shifting deck chairs June 26, 2014: Selected Joel Embiid (1st round, 3rd pick), Elfrid Payton (1st round, 10th pick), K.J. McDaniels (2nd round, 32nd pick), Jerami Grant (2nd round, 39th pick), Russ Smith (2nd round, 47th pick), Vasilije Micic (2nd round, 52nd pick) and Nemanja Dangubic (2nd round, 54th pick) in the 2014 NBA Draft. Let's take each selection individually Embiid for his upside, the health risk was acceptable at the 3rd pick. However this clearly didn't end well. Hindsight is 20/20, but this is a tough one to judge without any information on how Embiid performs Payton see below /b] KJ McDaniels Clearly a good pick given how he performed with real minutes, see below for trade Jerami Grant Has played pretty well this year, could be a steal of a pick Overseas dudes shifting deck chairs June 26, 2014: Traded Elfrid Payton to the Orlando Magic for Dario Saric and a 2017 1st round draft pick. Difficult to judge without seeing how Saric performs but Payton has real potential in this league, so this may very well be lost value June 26, 2014: Traded Nemanja Dangubic to the San Antonio Spurs for Jordan McRae. shifting deck chairs August 23, 2014: As part of a 3-team trade, the Philadelphia 76ers traded Thaddeus Young to the Minnesota Timberwolves; the Cleveland Cavaliers traded Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins and a trade exception to the Minnesota Timberwolves; the Cleveland Cavaliers traded a 2015 1st round draft pick to the Philadelphia 76ers; the Minnesota Timberwolves traded Kevin Love to the Cleveland Cavaliers; and the Minnesota Timberwolves traded Luc Mbah a Moute and Alexey Shved to the Philadelphia 76ers. added tremendous value by trading a middle-of-the-road starting PF for a 1st rounder and a prospect PG August 26, 2014: Traded a trade exception and a 2015 2nd round draft pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Hasheem Thabeet and cash. (The Thunder's acquired 2015 2nd-round pick is protected.) added a center with limited ceiling for a 2nd rounder, which isn't as valuable as it used to be September 27, 2014: Traded a 2015 2nd round draft pick to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Keith Bogans and a 2018 2nd round draft pick. (The 2015 pick is protected.) shifting deck chairs October 24, 2014: Traded Casper Ware to the Brooklyn Nets for Marquis Teague and a 2019 2nd round draft pick. added value with another 2nd rounder October 27, 2014: Traded Arnett Moultrie to the New York Knicks for Travis Outlaw and a 2019 2nd round draft pick. added value with a 2nd rounder December 10, 2014: Traded Brandon Davies to the Brooklyn Nets for Jorge Gutierrez, Andrei Kirilenko and a 2020 2nd round draft pick. (Nets also acquire right to swap 2nd-round picks in 2018, Philadelphia's selection acquired from Cleveland.) traded a lousy player for some taking on salary and another 2nd rounder, added value December 19, 2014: As part of a 3-team trade, the Philadelphia 76ers traded Alexey Shved to the Houston Rockets; the Houston Rockets traded Troy Daniels, cash, a 2015 2nd round draft pick and a 2016 2nd round draft pick to the Minnesota Timberwolves; the Houston Rockets traded Sergei Lishouk and a 2015 2nd round draft pick to the Philadelphia 76ers; the Minnesota Timberwolves traded Corey Brewer to the Houston Rockets; and the Minnesota Timberwolves traded Ronny Turiaf to the Philadelphia 76ers. (Minnesota's 2nd-round pick in 2015 and 2016 are protected for picks 50-60 and 31-45, respectively.) Traded a lousy player who overachieved for picks, added value with 2nd rounders January 7, 2015: Traded Sergei Lishouk to the Los Angeles Clippers for Cenk Akyol and Jared Cunningham. (LAC also sends cash considerations to PHI) traded a non-NBA player for a potential rotation player, added value January 16, 2015: Signed Larry Drew to a 10-day contract. shifting deck chairs February 5, 2015: Signed Tim Frazier to a 10-day contract. shifting deck chairs February 19, 2015: As part of a 3-team trade, the Philadelphia 76ers traded Michael Carter-Williams to the Milwaukee Bucks; the Milwaukee Bucks traded Brandon Knight and Kendall Marshall to the Phoenix Suns; the Phoenix Suns traded Tyler Ennis and Miles Plumlee to the Milwaukee Bucks; and the Phoenix Suns traded a 2015 1st round draft pick to the Philadelphia 76ers. (PHI 1st round pick received from PHO is LAL's and is top-5 protected in 2015 and top-3 protected in 2016 & 2017.) traded a PG who was realy not very good for a 1st rounder, a sell high move and now clearly something that added value February 19, 2015: Traded K.J. McDaniels to the Houston Rockets for Isaiah Canaan and a 2015 2nd round draft pick. (2015 2nd-rd pick acquired by PHI will be the worse of MIN & DEN picks) traded someone who might have cost a lot of money to keep for a rotation PG, neutral to slight negative value as KJ has a lot more potential February 19, 2015: Traded Cenk Akyol and cash to the Denver Nuggets for Chukwudiebere Maduabum, JaVale McGee and a 2015 1st round draft pick. (PHI 2015 1st round pick received from DEN is OKC's pick and is top-18 protected.) 1st rounder for taking on salary, clearly added value June 25, 2015: Selected Jahlil Okafor (1st round, 3rd pick), Willy Hernangomez (2nd round, 35th pick), Richaun Holmes (2nd round, 37th pick), Arturas Gudaitis (2nd round, 47th pick), J.P. Tokoto (2nd round, 58th pick) and Luka Mitrovic (2nd round, 60th pick) in the 2015 NBA Draft. June 25, 2015: Traded a 2015 2nd round draft pick (Willy Hernangomez was later selected) to the New York Knicks for a 2020 2nd round draft pick and a 2021 2nd round draft pick. Okafor: Obviously in hindsight Porzingis was the better pick, especially given Okafor's issues off the court, but I think it's reasonable to say Okafor has been the 3rd best rookie this year and has a lot of upside. added value, perhaps not optimal Hernangomez - he's having a really good year overseas, probably a rotation NBA player added value and then flipped for two 2nd rounders, so again added value, I guess - 2nd rounders are getting old Holmes - quietly having a great rookie year in limited minutes added value July 9, 2015: Traded Arturas Gudaitis, Luka Mitrovic and to the Sacramento Kings for Carl Landry, Nik Stauskas, Jason Thompson and a 2018 1st round draft pick. Also rights to swap 1st rounder in 2016 or 2017 traded random overseas dudes for taking on salary and a 1st rounder, added value - and seriously Sacramento? July 31, 2015: Traded Jason Thompson to the Golden State Warriors for Gerald Wallace. (PHI also gets rights to swap MIA or OKC 2016 1st Rd Pick for GSW 2016 1st Rd pick) shed salary while giving up nothing, neutral to slight positive value I'm sure you guys will disagree on a point or three but in general, other than his hoarding of 2nd rounders, he's been consistently adding value and drafting well. His two big misses are Embiid (here, a better understanding of the NBA psyche would have helped), and trading Payton for Saric, but the verdict is still out here as Payton has been merely OK and Saric is putting up 50/40/90 stats (well, almost 90 - but 46% from 3!) in Europe. Saric could be an amazing player. The issue is not Hinkie's strategy, but his inability to get the top pick in multiple consecutive seasons despite the odds being slightly in his favor. Because he didn't have a home run talent to draft, he took risks on players like Noel and Embiid with variable results. And tanking in general is painful to watch. But he's also afraid of taking on salary - despite his brashness in taking on risk - and he hasn't made big moves for free agents who may not be stars but might make you good enough where stars would consider you. Which free agent star would actively seek out Philly? That's where Colangelo comes in. But he's clearly a smart guy and has a mind for the NBA market, and if Philly doesn't want him - he should come on back home!
Elfrid Payton would practically be the best player on that team. I think you can chalk that up as a trade that he's lost. That said, I'm a huge fan of Payton's game. Dude can ball.
And if saric comes in and balls out, then what? Elfrid is good, just not good enough to say he's lost the trade without even looking at saric.
Elfrid has some work ahead of him to prove that he can shoot and not turn the ball over. He's been below average by almost every metric this year and in many respects he's taken a step back. But he's young and has a lot of basketball ahead of him. Also should reserve judgement until you see Saric play. Like I said in that post, he's almost shooting a 50/40/90 (surprisingly it's his FT% holding him back) and shooting a scorching 46% from 3. We all know the pitfalls of translating Euro stats to NBA stats but I think we can all agree that those are impressive shooting percentages.
really The ONE single year that Milwaukee spent at the bottom while it was developing 4 young players 2 of which ended up getting near max contract, one who is about to get a max contract and one who got a 11 mil extension, and drafting Parker? You will take it 10 times out of 10 over Philly's idea of tanking?
The issue is Hinkie's strategy. There were significant odds that he would not get the top pick in those seasons. That should have been considered in formulating the strategy. Geez.
What I mean is that it's mathematically the easiest way to reload, but it's inherently unpredictable. His issue is that any minor progress (MCW) turned into further arbitrage.
I'd take anything over Sacto, to be honest and I wish LAL the worst. That being said, NYC looks like it has some direction and promise, and MIL has some real talent but just hasn't put it all together yet. I think PHI is right in the middle of that pack in terms of progress, and dead last in the current product
I have no idea what you are talking about. The Bucks haven't had a 50 win team in 15 years. FIFTEEN YEARS. 9 trips to the lottery in that time period and what do they have to show for it? Absolutely nothing. How in the world can you justify doing that to a fan base? Not any hope of having a decent team. I'll take consecutive 60-70 loss seasons all day every day in hopes of landing a superstar the next draft, rather than thinking you are going to do anything with endless late lottery picks and 35-45 win teams. Its just absolutely no question.
Interesting to see that Daryl Maury disciple Sam Hinkie is being regarded as a failure by the Sixers organization and may be on his way out, which is why Colangelo was brought in.
You want to meet in person to discuss that you are kind of slow with reading comprehension & learning new concepts? You gotta trust the process. This would be convenient timing for jerry to step in. Hinkie has them loaded up, he just should've handled agents and signed more vets. That'd change the culture.
Well, I hope to see KJ some more. Which I suppose we will, seeing how Ariza just nearly wrecked the hardwood in Brooklyn when he crashed to the floor in tonights game. Get well Trevor!
You still don't get it. It's Hinkie's 3rd year and they've started the season 1-21. The Spurs just beat them in Philly by 51 points. They could end up 1-35 or 2-34. Last year they started 0-17! Hinkie has no understanding of culture at all or he would have self-corrected after last season. There is no excuse whatsoever for the complete trash they've put on the court this year. It's a disgrace to the NBA. Hinkie has a gigantic blind spot that can't be fixed. A person in his position must have more awareness. A complete and absolute disregard for winning and developing players wouldn't have been overcome by signing a couple of vets playing out the string just to get a paycheck. No vet worth warm spit could stand the stink of that franchise. Hinkie is the poster child proving one-dimensional geeks have no business being put in positions of absolute authority. One-dimensional people can be good idea guys and consultants but are the last people you want running the asylum.
