It's the difference between getting 20 million dollars a year or 3 million dollars a year. That's 20 million dollars that is otherwise coming out of the state's budget to subsidize UH athletics. We'd go to the damned Neptune conference if that's what it took.
The Big 12 makes more sense when it comes to all sports and let's face it, the Big 12 needs at least 2 more schools so it makes sense for both parties. That's why they'd prefer to go to the Big 12 but they certainly wouldn't pass up the PAC if they were to offer a spot. They should be. I'm certainly not talking about UH out-recruiting anyone, but if the PAC gets a foot in the door to the region, their power schools are going to take yet another bite out of the recruiting class from Texas and it would really hurt the Big 12 especially since their recruiting in other regions is marginal at best. Also, I agree that the Big 12 needs to expand to other regions, but they need at least 2 more schools than they have now, shoring up Southeast Texas with UH and preventing yet another power conference getting their teeth into their potential recruits would be smart, picking up another school in a different region with the 2nd school would also be smart. Too much of the talent from the Big 12 comes from Texas to allow another large straw in the milkshake.
This..... and it is why some of the not so large schools (Baylor/TCU/TT) have gone from not wanting UH in the Big XII to believing it is a good idea. The goal is to limit the exposure kids in Texas have to universities outside of the state of Texas and the Big XII. The University of Texas for the most part has not been concerned, but they also are one of only a handful of universities that have programs that can join any conference they want and can attract talent outside the state. For schools like TCU, Baylor and even OU, their bread and butter is in the state and their coaches and scouting are Texas/Southwest specific. As far as growing outside the state of Texas, while that is important, there is no Big XII as a P5 conference if it starts losing substantial recruits to the SEC, Big X and PAC. If UH gets an invite from the PAC I suspect they would go to the Big XII and see if there was an interest in them joining the Big XII in light of the PAC invite. It could all be moot because there are a number of high placed people at UH that feel that the Big XII will invite them in as a member. The last round of lost programs hurt the Big XII, and the members other than UT have become more concerned about the conferences long term health. In the past I have been very critical of the UH and their efforts to join a larger conference. They have progressively hopped conferences the last decade. However, they have greatly improved their facilities, stadium, and the university as a whole. It isn't UT or even OU as a program, but it is certainly on par with other schools in the Big XII when it comes to facilities, etc. UH would also draw extremely well in football in the Big XII, if nothing else graduates from the other schools would pack the stands. There are many Big XII alums in the Houston area that would indirectly support UH.
I'm not sure what the rest of the Big 12 is planning, but UH will have a brand new basketball practice facility, a renovated basketball arena, and a brand new football practice facility in the next 24 months. Combined with TDECU, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that their facilities would be in the top half of the Big 12, if not higher. Doing all of that, and fielding nationally competitive programs without a single P5 dollar coming into your pocket is impressive.
It is very impressive. I don't think people realize how bad the facilities were when the old SWC collapsed. It is why it is very likely that the school will be in a P5 conference within a year or two.
And this is where that geographical piece really plays in. You are assuming that kids will start flocking West just because UH joins the conference. Truth is that California, Oregon, and Washington are far as hell and that plays a huge part in recruiting. Maybe more so than any other factor actually. At the end, parents still want their kids closer or at least be able to watch them on t.v. if they play a major sport. And 9:30 starts won't be help the cause. I'm not saying you are wrong and there are a lot of kids that go OOS but majority still stay in state and don't think that would change enough to be a big concern for the conference in my opinion. There are a ton of considerations with realignment, just don't think recruiting is that big of one.
Yes, they are far as hell, but if they come to Houston to play games every now and again, the coaches will get more time to see local recruits here and it would be a consolation for parents sending their kids off. As it stands now, it's super hard for PAC teams to recruit this region with no connection here at all. Give them a connection and that changes. Also, you have people who WANT to get out of Texas for college. If you have offers from Texas Tech which is far as hell and in a garbage part of the country, or UCLA, where are you going? If you could go to Baylor or Oregon? Oklahoma or USC? Stanford or OKlahoma State? It doesn't take THAT many recruits deciding to leave to dilute the talent pool. You give a conference like the PAC a foothold in the region and they'll spend more effort here as well. I know the SEC is likely to do so with Texas A&M as their in.
Except a lot of those kids who have offers from Baylor probably have an offer for Oregon as well, same with OU and USC, hell maybe even Tech and UCLA. Kids who want to go OOS will go OOS, UH joining the PAC 12 isn't opening some magic door that they've never had before. Yeah Norman and Waco aren't L.A., but neither is Tuscaloosa or College Station. Hasn't hurt any of these teams yet Proximity maybe the biggest factor in deciding where you're going for college. And even if you are a kid that wants to go OOS, anyone that follows recruiting will tell you that momma almost always wins out.
Well for sure, proximity is important, but for some if you play games fairly close to home every once in a while, that's enough. That said, I'm not talking about a huge amount of prospects going to other conferences, I'm just saying that it doesn't take much especially if they are top recruits. Let's say Alabama snags a top recruit that would have otherwise gone to Texas before A&M was in the SEC and then USC snags a top recruit that would have otherwise gone to OKlahoma and you have potentially damaged those 2 programs. There are only so many highly recruited prospects every year in a region, the Big 12 doesn't really reach much outside of Texas so they REALLY need to protect that as best as possible. Adding a few more hands into the candy jar is not what you want.
So I've been checking this thread religiously, and I'm still confused. Anyone who knows higher-ups or has any idea of what's happening, can you fill me in on what is the most likely to happen now after Sittler's tweets? I always thought the Big 12 would be the most likely, but the tweets make me think otherwise, especially because he's pretty reputable.
SEC already has A&M and LSU, 2 schools that regularly get blue chip recruits from htown. They don't need the leftovers that UH gets.
Do you have anything to back that up? Of the p5 conferences, The Big East was always our most likely destination. Who said otherwise? The SEC is the only conference in the country that gains virtually nothing from our inclusion. They gain no new TVs to sell their network to, no new recruiting areas, nothing. It's not a knock on UH either. It's the same reason the SEC won't take programs like Louisville, Clemson, Miami, etc.
We've been getting 4-5 star guys in the lines again....And Herman is staying. Contrary to popular belief, UH does not NEED the BIG 12 or the PAC ...We sit on the most fertile recruiting soil in the football world....and finally are in position ONCE AGAIN to keep ENOUGH of this great talent at home. It's already on. The days of being "beggars" is over. We are on our way to having leverage finally....a hot commodity. Football, basketball, and baseball......
I've covered this so, so many times in threads that you have posted in. Not trying to be a dick, I'm just sure that you already know my arguments and I don't feel like digging it up.
Lol these are the exact reasons why I said UH doesn't make sense for the Big 12 either. I believe you mentioned that UH would add a competitive team and ultimately establish a conference championship but so could a bunch of other schools, all while adding brand new markets, recruiting bases, etc... If these are the main concerns with expansion (which I believe TV markets are) then UH doesn't make anymore sense for the Big 12 than the SEC.
Wow lot of posts. The big 12 should not be looking at expansion for the sake of a conference championship. The conference does not get stronger by just having 12 teams. It's stronger by adding teams that add additional markets that can bring an interest and increase the value of the media rights. The clear solution is to just change the rule and add a championship game with 10 teams which should not be a big deal now that the NCAA has de-regulated college football and given conferences more latitude. This is a reasonable perspective given OU made the final 4 without a conference championship and they did not need anyone to lose in order to get there. There was no doubt in anyone's eyes that they would not be passed up by Stanford even though Stanford won their conference championship. What about Baylor last year? The situation would have been vastly different if Baylor would have played a non conference schedule that did not consist of SMU, Northwestern St and Buffalo which were a combined 11-24. They had better wins than Ohio St overall but Ohio St got the bid. Would Ohio St have still gotten that 4th spot even if Baylor played a good schedule, had more quality wins but no conference championship? Maybe. Would Baylor have gotten in if they re-played TCU in a conference championship? Probably. There is no doubt it would help the conference but that doesn't mean it justifies adding teams that don't increase the value of the conference outside of the fact that make a conference championship possible unless it plays out that the Big 12 is consistently left out of the playoff. We'll see how that plays out year by year. What two teams could they add? Major and I have said the same thing over and over about the houston market. The Big 12 already has a relatively high percentage of people who watch college football. The city of Houston has 5 million people but 5 million people don't all watch college football. Are there people who watch UH games that don't watch the big 12? Of course but the fact that you get any amount of more households does not by default mean that the revenue you are generating from that increased number is more valuable than what you could generate by breaking into a completely new market with fresh eyes and recruits. According to Houston Chronicle/David Barron, UH had the 24th most watched game in Houston up to Nov 1st. I know they hit above that 2.2 mark since but so have other teams and matchups. 6 of those games are big 12 already. In terms of other markets, Memphis has better ratings nationally than UH games (I don't know what they draw in Tenn), it's in a part of the country that the Big 12 has no foothold in for media and recruits. Basically, there is not a large value increase in further saturating a houston market that has fans, alumni and viewers of 4 different Texas teams. What about the other benefits of UH? They won their conference this year but what about the program? They have the 3rd best record in the AAC (Last 5 years) and have to go back 9 years for their last conference championship. You guys are saying that things have changed and programs have changed...well then win for more than 1 year. I mean if they keep winning every year then what am I going to say about the value of the team? I said the same stuff about TCU but they kept winning and I supported them getting in the big 12. The earned the respect of the national audience over years of work. Let's talk about this year. There is a reason there are 13 teams with more wins than UH in the Playoff Rankings, 9 teams in the AP with less wins and 12 teams in the coaches poll. There isn't a conspiracy. No one hates you. It's because your non conference schedule included Tenn Tech and Texas St which are Division 2 (or whatever it's called) and were a combined 7-16. You played a Vandy team that finished 2-6 in the SEC. UH knew Vandy would not be good when they were scheduled. They're the 3rd worst program by winning percentage in the SEC. My point here is that there is a reason that the committee, AP media and coaches don't take this season seriously and it's all in the numbers. Sagarin's system has them as the 27th team in football. If you want to get a better challenge and prove yourself then be the best team in the AAC over a few years. Is having another Texas team good for the Big 12? No other state has 5 teams in a single conference because it would make the conference look regional and not a national conference. It also dilutes the talent pool if you are splitting the same players (Texas High Schoolers) among another college team in a single conference. I do hope UH is taken in by another conference because it will end all of this but I don't know where. I'm guessing the Pac 12 waits out the Big 12's media contract and takes another run at OU and Texas but who knows. I would wish you guys the best and say I'm happy for you if you go to the Pac 12 or ACC. So, How would a conference championship work in the big 12 with 10 teams? The conference plays a round robin schedule which means a team can't luck out and avoid other good teams. For instance, Iowa didn't have to play any of the top 4 teams from the Big Ten East Division. The SEC schedule is even more divided since teams only play 2 games against the opposite SEC division and only one of those games rotates every year. BUT if they need to do it then just take the top two teams by conference record and throw them against one another. It just seems a little silly when you still have a round robin and no divisions. It should give the Big 12 a leg up over everyone considering how rare it is now for two great teams having to play each other for a 2nd time in the conference championship. Michigan St, Alabama and Clemson just had to beat another good team in their conference which is something OU already did by virtue of the round robin. I disagree with the assessments here of the status or value of the big 12. Changing the revenue splitting program and giving each program has made the quality of every team's facilities and program grow and their new TV contract was very impressive and secure until 2025 when the TV deals start to run out. One of the biggest catches the conference scored was to get out of the CFB matchup system. They play against the SEC in the Sugar Bowl regardless of what any other team in the country does. I don't know how the hell they kept this conference together but they did and put it in a good position.
