"My sources just told me the Astros are looking to make some moves and Luhnow is in discussion with a handful of teams regarding a multitude of options in order to continue to ensure the Astros are in strong contention." This passes as tweet-able "intel" nowadays... and the link just posted in another trade regarding Fernandez is also complete speculation. Most of what we know in the Luhnow regime is that very little is heard/leaked until the move actually happens and is agreed upon (was the case with Kazmir, Gomez trades... and then Lowrie trade). If there "are" leaks, its very plausible that the deal is not happening and one side is trying to save face or drive down/up a price.
So basically...you are saying the starting point is that Astros would need to send about 30-35 expected WAR for about 15 expected WAR...
Too high if I'm the Astros. What's the point of trading a high upside semi-proven McCullers for Fernandez. Just keep McCullers and your other assets. I might do something like Springer, Appel, and Fiers for Fernandez...maybe throw in another prospect outside the top 10.
Last year, Altuve/Springer + McCullers = 6.6 WAR; in Fernandez's one full season ('13), he posted a 6.3 WAR. I'm not sure where 30-35 and 15 came from...
Kazmir to Astros was reported as possible nearly a month before deadline. Gomez trade to Hou was reported as possible before the non-trade to NY. Lowrie trade...yeah that came out of no where.
It's honestly worth it to get him and I have a hunch Luhnow will pull the trigger (only if Marlins don't get a better bid).
Numbers were rounded in my head from memory, but fit what I've seen in steamer, fangraphs depth charts. Steamer takes into account injury risk, regression. I use fWAR. Altuve 3 WAR/year * 4 years = 12 WAR McCullers 3 War/year * 6 years = 18 WAR Appel and Singleton probably around 5 for club control mostly from Appel as reliever. Fernandez 5 WAR * 3 years = 15 WAR. Even assuming Fernandez is perfectly healthy and has no regression and assume bWAR for one season even though his ERA and FIP are basically identical for career...only end up with 18.9 WAR.
Sure... possibilities spouted off months before (which again were speculation that made sense) are not what I'm referring to. There was zero speculation/tweets/rumors right before those moves happening. In similar fashion, Price to the Red Sox, Kimbrel to the Red Sox, and Grienke to the D-backs were all breaking news/little-to-no rumors prior type of events as well. Basically, there is far more mis-information than actual real substantiated rumors... and if you hear a lot of rumors involving teams, without much actually happening, its likely all BS.
Altuve wouldn't be in deal. I can't see Luhnow doing that. He would rather deal some pieces for Andrew Miller/another good reliever/bat before he gave up Altuve.
He's 23 and that 15-18 WAR might cost you... $20-25MM, which is insanely below value. And you'd hold leverage to eat those two arbitration years to sign him to a longer-term deal - at age 24 or 25. I'm not suggesting *I* would trade those guys; I'm suggesting Miami would be foolish to settle for anything less. When healthy, Hernandez is arguably the second-best pitcher in baseball. And he hasn't even logged 300 MLB IP yet. His (potential) availability truly is Haley's Comet-like. The Marlins are right to ask for the moon... and teams are probably willing to come up to their demands...
Why do you assume that? He didn't draft or develop Altuve so there's no long-term investment. And, while Altuve has been a very good player the past two seasons - great, even - he remains a bit of a confounding player, with no discernible plate discipline, questionable baserunning skills, and a decent, but certainly not remarkable glove. Luhnow may very well love him. But he has all the makings of a sell-high commodity a guy like Luhnow would probably love to leverage. (And I'm not denigrating Altuve; he's been great. I just don't know if how he does what he does is sustainable.)
Irrelevant. Front offices care about this stuff to some degree; but they're not going to let a 23-year old ace get away because it might upset fans. As soon as they saw how awesome Fernandez is, they'd get over it pretty quickly.
I'm not sure what to think. Chemistry does matter and moving Altuve could upset a few players in the club house. I see Altuve/Springer/Correa/Keuchel and possibly McCullers as untouchables.
They would not be foolish to settle for a deal that got them around 15-18 million WAR with less injury risk in years that they are more likely to compete. You are basically saying that being 15 WAR off is reasonable. I doubt there is any team willing to give 30+ WAR mostly with young guys in the majors already for Fernandez.
View it this way... 2nd best pitcher in baseball for McCullers (young/progressing/great potential), Springer (good hustle guy with potential 30 hr power and hits for about .270), Appel (so far has been inconsistent in minors but has potential), another player not named Reed. There is one key word in here... it's called "potential" and Fernandez is already proven to show amazing stuff. You are giving up guys who can be replaced. Springer = can be replaced McCullers = can be replaced Appel = can be replaced We have a minor league system and the hit wouldn't be as massive as you think.
Based on your projections, between 2016-2019: Fernandez (15 WAR) | McCullers + Altuve + Appel/Singleton (19.7 WAR). Or 5 WAR/year v 6.7 WAR/year. And you'd be paying Fernandez for ace-level production pennies on the dollars. Keuchel, too.
