Injury is always a concern, though - especially with young pitchers. And there's likely nothing more volatile than potential. You have no idea if those pitchers will ever make it to the big leagues, let alone anchor a rotation, Jose Fernandez? You know he's going to anchor a rotation.
Also, if some team thought Qualls was worth $6M/year, makes you wonder why the Astros didn't exercise the $3.5M option and then trade Qualls.
Qualls has one of better ground ball rates among relievers and nearly every fly ball hit against him was a HR last year already. I don't see how Coors Field is going to hurt him more than others versus his 2015 performance. Maybe a slight overpay, but that has nothing to do with Coors Field...except maybe that you have to overpay a pitcher to play there.
Me too, as Jose Fernandez intrigues the hell out of me, because a player like him is almost NEVER made available. I don't mind overpaying to get him either. Apparently they asked for Corey Seager and Julio Urias, two of the most premium prospects in the game. I don't even think that it's an unreasonable starting point, although I wouldn't do it if I am the Dodgers until I get Seager out of the deal. But from the Astros' perspective, I offer a package of Jose Altuve, Jonathan Singleton, and Mark Appel. I would sell the idea of moving Dee Gordon to SS, and having a 1-2 punch atop the lineup of Gordon and Altuve raising hell on the basepaths. Both Altuve and Singleton are extended for really team-friendly deals (although Singleton still has to pan out, so there is risk there). But for a cheap team like the Marlins, both contracts have to appeal quite a bit to them. And Appel provides them with a high-quality arm to hopefully help soften the blow of losing Fernandez. From our side, although it hurts, at least we have Bregman to hopefully continue to develop and eventually take over as the 2B of the future, and losing the other 2 guys doesn't really hurt us at all. If I have to weigh the options, I take a duo of Jose Fernandez/Alex Bregman vs the duo of a solid-yet-unspectacular SP/Altuve. As I mentioned earlier, a rotation of Keuchel, Fernandez, McCullers, Fiers, and McHugh is simply too tantalizing to pass up, and I would gladly overpay to make that happen.
omg omg omg. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sources: Mystery team making "very strong" bid for Jose Fernandez. Other clubs believe it's the Astros. More soon at <a href="https://t.co/gtnhE81RUu">https://t.co/gtnhE81RUu</a></p>— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) <a href="https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/674261709708730368">December 8, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
If it is the Astros, I'm hoping for something like MrBear's trade. A lot of MLB almost ready prospects, but no one that Astros will depend on day 1 of 2016.
Except you don't know. Fernandez barely has pitched since 2013 - he didn't anchor a rotation in either of the past 2 seasons due to injury. If healthy, I agree, but he may or may not stay healthy. Just because prospects are volatile doesn't mean that it's a good idea to trade 5 or 6 of your top prospects, including last year's #2 overall pick, for a pitcher who hasn't proven he can give you 200 innings.
I'll take MrBear's trade minus one of the biggest names (Bregman or Appel) and substituting in a secondary guy
Marlins have 2B. Marlins need depth, SS, and 1B. Could be something with a mix like VV, Singleton, Gonzalez, Marisnick, Feldman, Oberholtzer, Appel, Feliz...maybe some more, maybe less. Fernandez is worth a ton, but has injury concerns so it is hard to get a good fix on price. It is just very high.
As I posted, Fernandez makes a lot of sense for the Astros. He is an elite pitcher at a low cost under team control. Trading for him allows the Astros to spend money on other areas. One thing to keep in mind, Fernandez WILL be on an inning limit next season so if you make a move for him, you better have a good 6th starter and a deep pen. The Astros have too many starting pitchers on their roster and ready in the pen, it makes perfect sense they consolidate their assets in that regard.
He's 23... and missed a bulk of that time due to an injury/surgery that the majority of elite pitchers who have it done, come back to an elite level afterwards as well. The same injury/Tommy John risk that accompanied Fernandez is pretty much inherent to all our pitching prospects right now... including guys like McCullers and VV (who had TJ surgery himself in 2011).
Dee Gordon has played extensively at SS. That's an awful package, IMO; full of scrubs and, conveniently, players thet Astros could survive without. No, if it happens, it's (probably) going to hurt. My guess is Altuve or Springer are in the mix...
Yeah... 23 years old with a CAREER era of 2.40 in nearly 300 innings and isn't a free agent until 2019. He is probably the top young pitcher in baseball. My only concern with him is that he will be on a strict inning limit.
