[Graphs] Rockets take good shots, just missing them

I believe the mechanics and ability are there to make more shots, but the psychological advantage of seeing the shots go in has been lost. Once they regain the confidence, the statistics will improve.

 

I see GSW hanging up there like a full moon.... dang

 

I wonder what the charts look like for last season? Not much SHOULD have changed over the summer.

 

The chart implies the Rockets offense is finding plenty of good shots. In fact, best in the league.

The question is, could the Rockets offense be better if they had a system that didn't generate such a high expected eFG% - eg. if somehow it created harder shots, but they went in more? I don't think so. I don't think the same guys who aren't hitting the good shots they are getting will hit harder shots.

Defensively it's just a nightmare.

 

I would say to that, that I guess they aren't good shots for the players the Rockets have right now. Look for better shots. I don't think we can throw our arms up and say, oh well, everyone is just missing 3ptrs.

Another thing to consider, is that part of the Rockets offensive "core" is transition points. Transition points generated by good defense. For me, I look at transition offense as "value add" to an overall offense. But the Rockets treat is more as core. And right now the Rockets just are not converting on those. In fact, they are getting the business themselves from their opponent.

 

Right now there's no such thing as a "good shot" for the Rockets, we've got players shooting in the 40% range on layups. The best you can do is give them open shots and hope that at some point they realize that they are professional basketball players and start hitting them at a respectable clip.

 

Yeah we have had games with so many missed layups. Makes zero sense.

 

How much of that graph is real meaningful data though? It just shows what some stats guy has defined as an "effective" shot regardless of who's taking it or what type of game situation it's being taken in? How are FTs and transition buckets being factored in?

Looking at the Rockets' expected eFG you'd think we wield an absolute powerhouse offensive playbook and just don't have guys making shots. If you actually watch the games though, it really doesn't seem like we have more ball movement than Golden State or San Antonio. So when Harden pulls up for a 3 off the dribble in transition, even though he misses like 75% of those, it's being counted for as an effective shot, right?

Similarly, are we supposed to consider Portland and Charlotte as two teams who hypothetically play the right type of defense and allow the right types of shots by opponents, but their opponents just happen to be making them? More context needs to be put into the charts before you begin thinking about on court impact.

 

It's kinda like insulating your home with vintage denim, you may need to take those walls down and get those jeans out someday.

 

I want some of what you're having

 

They are bound to shoot better... but, this is saying we are playing Morey system (most efficient shot taken compare against the league) with the wrong personnel.

Trying to squeeze a circle into a square IOW.

 

Again, I believe a lot of it is because they are not hitting shots. They are open because they can't hit. If they hit more consistently, defenses will adjust. Now teams can just pack inside and dare them to shoot.

 

If you actually watch the games you'd see we only shoot contested shots.

 

If you watched closer, you'd know that they actually get a lot of uncontested shots.

 

I watch closely.

We shoot contested shots.

 

Hopefully, our season can shed light on some of the greatest mathematical anomalies that eludes mankind.

 

Hilariously Incorrect

 

I don't even understand GSW...

Too much cheating tbh. Every player shooting like 40%+ from 3.

 

The numbers explicitly say we get plenty of open shots and, having watched most of the games this year, the numbers are right. We brick good looks, we brick bad looks. But we strung two good games together so I'm hopeful we will break out of the funk