Wow. I was going more based on what we heard from Hunsicker, as Buck said. I suppose he said it immediately after the trade, so that was potentially more justification than anything. But I always thought he wasn't doing too well in the minors, hence the "he didn't look like he'd pan out into more than a backup IF" label. We also didn't have easy access to minor league stats at the click of a button in 2006. But man, he was fairly solid through AA for us--posting around a .900 OPS consistently and very high OBPs. Stats don't say he was struggling at all. My mistake.
23 pages long, I only read the first one, but there's this: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=115237
What do you want me to say? He was wrong about him (like he was about Abreu). It is curious to see how solid his minor league stats were (great/consistent OBP that translated well to the majors). In another time, it's unlikely he gets labeled as he does. While there will still be countless prospects that fall through the cracks, you'd like to presume that GM's have learned from the mistakes of their predecessors... Especially the ones with a background in scouting and those obsessed with the minors. It's also far more transparent now with much more readily available information for the public to consume. Gerry was a fantastic GM... Especially for maximizing the MLB team at all times. Luhnow may never get to that sort of profienciecy, but I have confidence he knows his minor league players and their true ceilings better than most other GM's know their own players, along with our past GM's. EDIT: I do realize that it was Timmy P that actually was the GM at the time of our trade... and that Gerry was with the Rays... I suspected collusion at the time, but maybe Gerry just knew what he was doing all along.
Ugh. Nobody was "wrong" about Zobrist (nobody, and I mean nobody predicted he would ever hit for any power like he did), just like nobody was "wrong" about JD Martinez or Jose Bautista or Colin McHugh or Will Harris or Cliff Lee or Nelson Cruz or Joe Nathan or a thousand other late bloomers. Players evolve in ways you sometimes can't predict.
And yet it was predicted that he would be "at best a utility infielder..." I have no problem with missing on prospects... but I do have a problem saying you can't be "wrong" when your prediction (which as you said, you sometimes can't predict) is that far off. Its also expected that they're not going to be right about everybody... its impossible.., that being said, its also fair to say that they flat-out get projections wrong, and every prediction that so-and-so has "this ceiling" should always be taken with a grain of doubt (especially when there are signs, vis-a-vis minor league numbers, that could suggest otherwise) Anyways, I don't have any revisionist agenda here... was just pointing out that Zobrist had better minor league numbers than people may have realized. I simply look back on that trade as they had to give up something of value to get value... Huff was a good hitter at the time. Was also funny to read you lambasting Pallilo for foolishly wanting Zobrist and Pence up in the big leagues... then again, typically you're not going to be wrong for wanting guys with big minor league numbers to get promotions (and if they ultimately fail, at least you know... and you're not blindsided by un-expected production from late bloomers).
When everyone else is wrong too, are you really wrong at all? That was the day after the trade. I read a bit of that thread, until gwayneco started posting on about page 10. Interesting stuff. I especially liked this post from Max: because Good Times was the ****. re: me contra palillo, I was very wrong about Pence in a lot of ways, but he's still one of the most overrated Houston athletes I've ever seen. Zobrist had no business in the majors in the timeframe you're talking about, and his first 2 years pretty much proved that.
Yes, absolutely... wrong is still wrong. I come from a world where I believe its possible for the entire class to fail a test/class if they all get the wrong answer. I don't get bent out of shape and call for people's heads over it... but I have no problem admitting somebody got it wrong. Totally reasonable. Pretty sure Luhnow wasn't saying much in regards to expectations when they picked up McHugh for nothing. Sure, you have hunches... and sometimes you just run into a performer blindly. But we all get things wrong... and most of the good ones admit it... just like you did in your post regarding Pence. Or did he simply need more time to adjust (slightly more than 80 games)? And possibly gets there sooner if he wasn't stalled/slow-tracked in the minors prior? Again, not a blind revisionist... Luhnow is going to jettison several prospects that look like dog-**** now, who will go on to solid MLB careers... but I do think its a reasonable exercise to look at individual cases and see if there was something that could have been handled differently, or if there were signs/stats that ended up predicting the true outcome that were either ignored or simply discounted at the time.
I read, maybe... 10 pages... and then went to check Morgan Ensberg's 2006 season, as it soon became the primary topic of conversation. His OB% that year was .396 - and we were, of course, b****ing up a storm... To be fair... he totaled more walks (101) than hits (91) and for a middle of the order hitter, that's not exactly ideal. Ensberg was probably ahead of his time, honestly. Today, he'd be viewed as an ideal - IDEAL - #2 hitter. Look what he did between '05-'06: .263/.391/.517/.908; OPS+ 134. How much would the 2015 Astros pay for a 3B putting up those numbers? Wow. And we couldn't wait to run him out of town (with me leading the charge)...
The other thing about Zobrist - he was 25. Now, granted, this was during a stretch in which the Astros were loathe to promote players until they were 35 - but, at 25... he really wasn't a "prospect" so much as... a professional baseball player.
My issues with Ensberg: 1. For that team, it wasn't enough to get on base...someone had to be driving in runs, because the guys batting behind him weren't gonna do it. He was the cleanup hitter or batted 5th...he needed to stop being selective and put the bat on the ball. 2. He was mentally checked out in that World Series. Watching a guy change his stance in the same at bat was mind-numbing. Having said all that...I love he's part of the organization now. I think he's smart. I heard him speak once and came away really impressed.
He was old when he got drafted. He got overlooked like so many guys who seemingly come from nowhere. Happened with JD Martinez (Zobrist is part of why I was high on JD despite lackluster traditional scouting reports). Same could be true of Tyler White right now. The Cardinals have made a killing on guys who are lackluster prospects, like Matt Carpenter. I loved the trade for Huff as best as I can recall. It wouldn't have been so bad if we had offered Huff arbitration, and gotten compensation. Hard to believe the team didn't even offer Pettitte arbitration. Not that it matters since we probably wouldn't have signed those extra 1st rounders. Instead we signed Woody Williams and Carlos Lee and lost our top 2 picks. Man the organization was stupid.
And that was all pre-Tejada trade. You don't sign draft picks, you sign players past their prime years, you trade away any prospects you do have... its pretty much the perfect storm for why they ended up where they were. A lot would have to happen wrong, just like that, for this team to be in a similar situation (for all those scared to trade prospects and/or sign free agents).
Agreed... makes me wonder how differently people would view Chris Carter back then. Reading all the "moneyball" hate was also pretty entertaining... both in people not having one clue about what moneyball was really about, and how some have come full circle to embrace analytics (when back then, there was legitimate/significant beef with it).
Yeah, hence why I said he was "slow-tracked".... which was the organizational MO at the time (for reasons other than payroll/arbitration).
That's why I mentioned him possibly being ahead of his time; the team saw him hit HRs (25 in 2003) and so they immediately (mis)cast him, frankly, as middle-of-the-order power bat when I think he was actually an Alex Gordon-type - count-working, OB machine. His slashline, '03-'06 (2,016 PAs): .272/.375/.494/.869; OPS+ 123. We would probably trade a notable prospect, or 3, to get a 3B right now who would do that for four seasons... But, yeah - he was miserable in that WS... small sample size, and all - but he posted a .436 OPS...
Spoiler One less possibility <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Francisco RodrĂguez was traded to Detroit Tigers. IF Javier Betancourt is headed to Milwaukee Brewers in this transaction</p>— Augusto Cárdenas (@ACardenas13) <a href="https://twitter.com/ACardenas13/status/667019006038188032">November 18, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Unliked Zobrist, JD got plenty of time in the majors with our team and couldn't cut it as a productive bat for his position. I think JD deserves much less questioning.
Agreed... there was literally nothing you could do about that... and sometimes a player has to hit rock bottom before he starts to make changes on his own.
No question, though him not getting a real chance after changing his swing and tearing it up in winter league was ridiculous. He wasn't on the 40-man roster at that point, so there was almost nothing to gain from letting him go.
