Marisnick put up 2+ war in roughly half a season of at bats. Further he is under team control for years to come. I am not adverse to trading Marisnick but not in addition to Martes for 60 innings of a relief pitcher making a fair amount of money.
Well, of course not... Luhnow doesn't have your incredibly handy hindsight... But I bet you would for Tim Redding, Carols Hernandez, Scott Elarton, Jeff Juden, Taylor Buchholz. John Halama, Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Bud Norris, JA Haap, Nick Tropeano......
Redding, Hernandez and Elarton were highly thought of prospects when they reached the big leagues. Jeff Juden had arm problems in the minors and the rest of the players were not elite prospects. So you have 3 names over the last 25 years? I listed far more than that, that became important contributors at the big league level. If you are good with playing Russian roulette.... so be it, I am not. Also there is no more hindsight for me than there is for you, listing off guys that ultimately were mediocre big leaguer pitchers.
Yep, he doesn't have hindsight so he could be trading a guy from either list. It is about probability. The average top 100 prospect puts up more WAR than Chapman. Trading a prospect for a MLB player usually gives a team more WAR...but when the prospect blossoms...it pays for a ton of times the prospects miss.
I did it to highlight how magnanimously convenient (and ultimately silly) it is. Oh, you wouldn't trade Roy Oswalt but would Jeff Juden... in 2015, after their careers have long ended? How are you not a general manager with that kind of INCREDIBLE foresight?... Let me ask you this... if we knew Martes was more Redding than Oswalt, would you make the deal?....... Ultimately, no two prospects are alike and there are no guarantees. The journey from AA prospect to Roy Oswalt is a long, unpredictable one. To invest in that over a known commodity like Chapman is far more Russian Roulette, IMO.
No one is going to hand you Aroldis Chapman. But this team has kicked the can down the street for four years... the time for them to act is now; the window is open. If it costs you a top pitching prospect to upgrade a playoff team right now, you do it. Far easier to find another Martes than it is Chapman....
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Congrats <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> 2B <a href="https://twitter.com/JoseAltuve27">@josealtuve27</a>, back-to-back AL <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SilverSlugger?src=hash">#SilverSlugger</a> Award winner! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Hustle?src=hash">#Hustle</a> <a href="https://t.co/zUmrF5Rz6L">pic.twitter.com/zUmrF5Rz6L</a></p>— Houston Astros (@astros) <a href="https://twitter.com/astros/status/664946832020115456">November 12, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Might get blasted for posting this, but pretty big AL West move: <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Braves?src=hash">#Braves</a> trade Simmons to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Angels?src=hash">#Angels</a> for Newcomb, Ellis, Aybar and about $3M</p>— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) <a href="https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/664951757789913089">November 12, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Isn't Simmons heralded as the best defensive IFer in the game?
With Colby Rasmus reportedly accepting the one-year qualifying offer, wonder how this will impact their budget for other needs... I'm hoping they add a top of the order SP, another bullpen arm (and resign Sipp or a good lefty) and upgrade 1B. Does this move make Crane less likely to spend on a big name free agent? Or is he not sweating it since its only a 1-year deal and should be treated as a budget anomaly (kind of how I view it). Will be interesting to see what impact this QA offer has.
Takes us out of Gordon running. My guess is we're less likely to acquire someone who would cost us our first round pick. Any big acquisition will likely be via trade, IMO.
Considering he's the only one so far to accept the QO from the players who were offered one, I'm guessing this played a big part in him accepting it. Granted, I suppose he could have rolled the dice, and tried to negotiate a long-term deal with us here, but he played it safe and took his massive one-year payout since it seems like he genuinely wants to be here.
Yup. We lost a #1 we would have gotten. We lost $16,000,000 in funds we would have had. We now will not be in a position to fill any needs through the outfield. We now have a high strikeout/low OBP guy with bad splits locked in a line up that is already to high strikeout/low OBP heavy. Means lower strikeout/higher OBP needs must be addressed in the infield where there are fewer options and the cost is more in trade. It isn't the end of the world but not ideal.
No.... You didn't really advance the narrative at all. You listed a number of pitchers that were mediocre to bad, most of which were not even elite prospects. You then went on about hindsight blah blah. The Astros also haven't kicked the can for four years, last year they made moves to compete. It is really simple, you are willing to deal Marisnick and Martes for 60 innings of Chapman. I am not, there are a number of closers out there that would not require dealing probably your best pitching prospect.
Yes; it's because of hindsight that we know the pitchers were mediocre to bad. You're suggesting you knew all of their fates at the time of their development?... That's just silly. The exodus began in 2010 when the Astros traded Oswalt and Berkman. So, yeah, it's been four years. And this year *began* as another mini-can-kicking... it's not like Correa and McCullers broke camp with the team... I just don't really care anymore about potential... This franchise coasted on potential for four years. It's great that we have a system with top prospects; I think it'd be a mistake to rest on that... Yes. The other thing to consider, three things, actually: 1) if the team falters and takes a step back this year (which is possible), you have a valuable trade chip to find a replacement for Martes; 2) you're assuming Chapman's leaving - that is TBD; 3) even if he does leave, the compensatory pick would net you an opportunity to replace Martes.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Reasonable to assume that <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> again want Chapman or Kimbrel. SD hard to predict, but likely willing to move Kimbrel for big return.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/664982382769004545">November 13, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
#1 I never said I knew how good or bad the pitchers I listed were before they made it to the big leagues. What I said is that I wouldn't give up a pitcher that was a teenager a week ago in AA coming off a year where his era was 2.00 for 60 innings of Chapman. That is what I said. You said that there were many busts and I pointed out there have been pitchers in the same level of prospect as Martes that did quite well. The Astros last year spent money to sign Rasmus, Gregerson and Neshak and they traded for Kazmir, Gomez and Fiers. They didn't kick the can last year and they won't this year. I am assuming Chapman leaves? You can sign him as a free agent if you want. I don't believe that Chapman nets you a #1 under the rules of his contract. Second if the team falters, you are not getting back nearly as much for 6 weeks of Chapman as for what the Astros would have paid to get him at the beginning of the season. No one is talking about resting on the system being good, but over paying for a free agent to be closer by giving up your first or second best pitching prospect and a 2+ WAR outfielder is silly IMO. If Luhnow does it, then so be it.
They also kept a gold glove level LF and kept 1st base open for Reed who will be brought up after the Super 2 deadline. I think Luhnow tries to trade for Kimbrel or Chapman and if that fails Boxberger and McGhee become Astros at a lesser price.
great fkin post. some of you guys are delusional. this takes us out of the running for a big free agent, good luck with wishing we are trading for chapman/lecroy
