<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: Astros talked to Rays about Jake McGee, Brad Boxberger. At same time, Tony Sipp's market is developing <a href="https://t.co/HX1pFn3Qh9">https://t.co/HX1pFn3Qh9</a></p>— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) <a href="https://twitter.com/EvanDrellich/status/664881789882736642">November 12, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Luhnow: Overall, compare the conversations you've had at the GM meetings this year compared to the last 3-4 years. Feels like things will happen more quickly. Not sure what's driving that. ... A lot of conversations. We have a feel for which of our players are in demand and which of theirs are available. Bullpen/Closer among priorities? Luke did a great job and would do a good job again this year. It was getting to Luke, not Luke. You need to add more good relievers. There are guys out there. We have interest in Perez & Sipp but we'll look around. They don't need to throw 98. It's good if they do but we want guys who get outs. We have exciting fireballers in our system. They'll get a chance in the next few years. We're looking for experience and another arm or two to close out games. Vince Velasquez, if you don't add an arm, can he be a late inning guy next year? Possibility but our plan is for him to be a starter. We like his secondary stuff, the way he commands his fastball. We do have other guys in the system with electric arms who may help this year. For now, plan is to keep him as a starter. That's his most valuable role. QO to Rasmus, where does that stand? Tomorrow is the date players have to decide. We'll wait and take it from there. If he takes it, he's ours and we're excited. If not, we'll try to sign him but no guarantees. We have interest in bringing him back. We need another bat. We could use another LH bat in the OF. That would be a priority for us. Has anyone taken a QO? Nobody has. We'll find out tomorrow. It is an attractive one year deal for a player who wants the security of that dollar figure but you only get one year. Safe to say you'd like a multi-year deal? We have interest in multi-year deals when possible. It gives us security knowing the player will be around. Any other core decisions 1B, LF, ...how much decision making needs to be done still? Quite a bit to sort through. Corners at the IF. We're set up the middle with Castro, Altuve & Correa. 3B and 1B, we have Carter, Reed, White, Singleton, Lowrie, Valbuena, Marwin, Villar. We have a lot of options. We won't be able to put all of them on the big league team. We'll have to figure out which guys do we believe will be on team, maybe move the other guys or improve somehow. ... We're excited we have young guys like Reed & White on the way up but Singleton & Carter have been doing it for us so we'll have to figure that out. Starting Pitching numbers. Numbers are media analysts & what they think. We don't put a whole lot of weight into that. ... There's a long list of SP. We like our rotation coming back, we're deep but also know it takes 8-9 starters to get through the first half of the year and would love to add depth & quality. If we can add someone who is an upgrade, we'll look at it. A.J. Reed? He and White will come to Spring and will be looked at carefully for a spot on the roster. White had time in AAA. It's possible both may start at AAA but wouldn't be surprised if one or both were up in the summer or in the end. Excited to have that inventory of prospects coming up. Mark Appel as a potential closer? He's a starter all the way. He's coming into camp and competing for a 5th spot. He's ready. He's 97 but can hold it all the way through the game. Good slider and changeup. Good chance to be TOR starter. We still very much believe in his future. Experiment with anyone? Gustave, who was a starter most of his career, he'll come to camp and audition for a relief role. (Reymin Guduan) Guduan from the left side. We have some guys like that. We'll give everyone a hard look in ST.
Aroldis Chapman has one year left on his contract. Martes isn't one in a million. He turned 20 years old last week and is in AA, his era for last season was right around 2.00. He has 2 to 3 plus pitches. There is a good chance he is a top 20 prospect with a good start next year. Marisnick is under team control for years and has a 2+ war.
Luhnow is the king of mixing a little bit of truth with mostly BS in his media appearances. The guy knows what he is doing.
Disappointed to hear Luhnow say we're set with Castro. I hope that is just talk and doesn't rule out the possibility of getting Lucroy. Nice to hear that he sounds high on White as well as Reed. If they have a good spring, I hope they both start the season with the club, though. He mentioned Gustave who has pitched really well this fall in the Dominican. Really, nothing substantial. Luhnow seems to let Drellich do his job without giving any new information at all.
Perfect; no sense in overpaying for a closer... Let me stop you right here... I couldn't care less. You can list as many superlatives as you want... and I'm certain they're all legitimate... but they don't translate to a single out for the Astros on the Major League level. It's just romanticizing potential. He's a tremendous 4th outfielder, which is nice - but not a necessity.
Marisnick isn't easily replaceable and neither is Martes. The problem is Chapman is going to be a Free Agent, and giving up a known MLB commodity and a top arm is a lot to give up. I think I'd rather the team go after Kimbrel with that type of package than Chapman.
Why is it so hard to believe that this team can't find their own Wade Davis, Kimbrel or Chapman amongst the deep farm system (or current young MLB) arms? Out of all the positions they're "set" at with nice/cheap home-grown players, and with how great their developmental strategy has been thus far... it baffles me that they have to go out and purchase a closer as their primary strategy... the one position you wish they wouldn't have to overpay for. I understand last year, already halfway through the season, you're not in the position to groom anybody... but so many elite closers are actually developed (or they're simply failed starters) that you'd think the deeper or more loaded the farm system is, the more potential options for candidates there are.
We might be able to find someone, but that carries significant risk. Last years bullpen at times featured Velasquez and Feliz, but neither showed they were lock down options and they struggled. Before that, it was Mike Foltynewicz who struggled the season before. The primary reason to trade now, rather than in season is to prevent another team from making a trade and leaving the market that much thinner.
The issue is that you won't know until you try. And if the guy fails and blows a bunch of saves early, that might be enough to cost you a season. I think it would be different if they a proven power 7th or 8th inning reliever that could be promoted to closer, but they don't really have that, so you'd really be throwing someone into the fire.
I think that package is overpaying for 1 season of Chapman. Using your logic the Astros should have dealt Corre/McCullers in 2014, after all they didn't add a single win to the Astros that season. What it comes down to is that you apparently do not think that highly of Martes and that is fine. He could get rocked in AA/AAA next season, he could blow out his arm (Chapman could as well to be fair). However I personally think Martes is one of the Astros 2-3 best prospects and he will be 20 years old with plus stuff all of next season. He is not just a throw in or a nice prospect, he is a very good prospect with very few warts and the stuff to be a rotation pitcher for the Astros for a number of years. If I move that, I am getting more than 60 innings of Chapman.
I expect the Astros to give players like Freeman, Farrell, Gustave and others a shot at some point to make the pen, and honestly there is a good chance one or more become very good this season. However are you going to count on that?
I'm not saying to overly rely on that somebody. Worst comes to worst, Gregerson is still here... and this bullpen was a Neshek implosion away from being the best in baseball (Harris' late-season struggles included). No question they need attempted upgrades.... but I'd be leery about giving up valuable prospects that may end up being just as good in the long run. How many contending teams are looking for closers right now?
Like I just said, not suggesting to put somebody in there and just hand him the job... sink or swim. Even Rivera was a set-up man before he got the chance to close... as was Lidge and Wade Davis. They know the farm system better than anybody here... and they "should" now analytics of previous failed starters turned elite closers that could potentially yield some candidates. I just don't think the bullpen situation is as dire as everybody else does... yes, it takes a little bit of effort (we saw the results of just two additions last year), and sometimes outside-the-box thinking... and sometimes you just run into a guy... but it still remains one of the "easiest" areas to improve upon year-to-year due to the amount of turnover in the position and the amount of arms that do end up translating well to the bullpen from being a failed starter.
On a contending team though, it'd be nice to have a stud in place. Rivera had Wetteland (sp?), Lidge had Wags, Davis had Holland. That makes it easier to let those guys come along. If this team needs a stronger bullpen, you can't put an unproven guy as a setup ahead of Gregerson and then say we're contenders (stronger than last year in the pen) because someone will grow into the closer role.
a) that's not an apples-to-apples comparison; even if McCullers equals Martes, Marisnick does not equal Correa; b) the '14 team didn't win 86 games and take the eventual World Series champs to the brink of elimination. As others have argued, nothing about the performance in '15 is guaranteed. Nor is anything beyond '15 guaranteed. The Astros have a 3-5-year window before money becomes a legitimate obstacle to potentially keeping this team's nucleus intact and they'd be foolish to be passive during that stretch, IMO. I think they need to be smart and patient, sure. But I don't think a top 10 pitching prospect and a (very good) 4th OFer should get in the way of improving the team today. I've honestly never heard of him; all I needed to know was that he was a highly-regarded pitching prospect in A/AA -- so no near-term impact; long-term impact unknown... And you're going to give me the best closer in baseball for him? Done. I could list... how many top "OMG!!!!!" pitching prospects from this franchise...
I wasn't comparing Marisnick to Correa. We will just have to agree to disagree. I am not trading one of the 3-4 best prospects on one of the best farm systems for 1 season of Chapman. If Luhnow goes that route I will be leery but admit her certainly knows what he is doing better than I do. I have had the opportunity to see Martes pitch 5-6 times last season and he was quite impressive.
a) he'd be easily replaced by Chapman, technically; b) generously assuming every team plays four outfielders (so 120 total), 47 last year had a WAR of 2.2, or greater. That's 40%. And while Marisnick was a penciled-in starter in '15, he almost certainly wouldn't be in '16; not with Gomez here. So there's very little chance he'd able to generate a WAR that high again. He's a *very* good player and has tremendous value; but teams don't win World Series because of their fourth outfielder.
Roy Oswalt, Brad Lidge, Billy Wagner, Johan Santana, Wade Miller, Mike Hampton, Lance McCullers are just some of the young players the Astros have had filter through their system the last 15-20 years...... I wouldn't deal any of them for 60 innings of Chapman.
